Regression Candidates: Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara See a Decline in 2025 Fantasy Football Performance

These fantasy running backs face many questions entering the 2025 season. Will contracts get done? Will usage dip? Will offenses regress? Today we suggest why you should avoid these fantasy football targets.

Nov 17, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against Cleveland Browns safety Grant Delpit (9) and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (94) during the second quarter at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

In years past, players like Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara, and Terry McLaurin have helped many people win their fantasy leagues. A lot more players have caused people to lose their fantasy leagues. In order have a winning roster, you must avoid regression and leverage opportunity. This year, Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara, and Terry McLaurin step into situations that have cause for concern. They face threats regarding usage time, contracts, and age. These are your three players to avoid drafting at ADP while drafting your league-winning roster.

Kyren Williams

Sean McVay has decided to run his offense through Kyren Williams, and it has definitely paid dividends. Williams as seen back to back seasons at over 1,100 Yards and 12+ touchdowns. His usage rate was about 60% in 2023 and increased well over 80% in 2024. He has been spectacular. So, why will he regress?

The Rams drafted Blake Corum, former Michigan-star, back in 2024. Though his usage was limited last season, McVay has expressed his impression of Corum, stating, "I think he's done a really good job. I thought he had some excellent runs today. I think he's had a really good camp."

Kyren Williams is partaking in training camp, but he is also looking for a new contract. Politics are politics, and it would not surprise me to see more and more of Blake Corum, especially if Williams is not extended by seasons-beginning. Contract or not, Corum should definitely see more time as he is one year older in this offense and naturally, more prepared to run well within it. A usage dip is one the horizon for Williams.

Alvin Kamara

Many had thought that Kamara was past his prime and that his fantasy value had faded. However, he proved everyone very wrong in 2024. Alvin Kamara went out with a very weak offense and put together an impressive RB9 season. The veteran back played 14 games and in the process, recorded 950 Yards on the ground with 68 catches for 543 Yards in the air. Can he repeat this as he hits 30 years old?

The advantage for Kamara is that the depth chart provides little threat in terms of backup running backs. He should see good usage once again, but I raise my concern in other avenues.

The Saints come in with a new head coach, Kellen Moore. Moore has been a very good OC, but there is still going to be uncertainty as to Kamara's usage. They used him heavily, especially as a check-down option, but this was under Dennis Allen and Darren Rizzi afterwards. As they find more confidence in the passing-game, the drop-down usage may, drop-down, pun intended.

Kamara has also remained unhealthy for a full-17 games. He has never missed a majority amount, but not in three years has Alvin touched 15 games. He has never played 17 games, and his only full season was as a rookie. As a good season may again be in store, I find it hard to believe that he will rack up another Top-10 season. Top-end running backs rarely ever continue thriving into their 30's. He would be a lower-end RB2 for me as I would rather not gamble on age and volatility.

Terry McLaurin

The Commanders offense buzzed in a big way a year ago. Scary Terry finally found consistency at quarterback and went nuts with Jayden Daniels. In 2025, I expect a minor sophomore slump as defenses will catch onto the scheme and a ceiling may have already been met.

McLaurin is no-doubt a great wide receiver, but ask yourself, is he a top-7 wide receiver? Top 10? I would list him Top-20, but that is it. With many breakout candidates showing up this season, it would only prove the law of averages that he would regress off of his 2025 version.

It also has not been very helpful that McLaurin is seeking a new contract. It has been reported that Terry has ended his contract holdout, but that does not end that fact that he wants it done. Camp is reportedly stuttering with the offense, and they will need McLaurin to reach peak-form. So long McLaurin is not extended, it will affect the chemistry in some form that is not positive. I'll put my chips elsewhere.

#Commanders & ESPN insider John Keim on WR Terry McLaurin showing up to training camp:

“This is not a sign of progress for a contract extension. I’ve been told by multiple people, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of movement. Both sides are pretty firm on how they view the… pic.twitter.com/Ac9QIkDcQO

— brandon (@JayDanielsMVP) July 27, 2025