Using Vegas Player Props to Make Smart Week 1 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Decisions

Player prop odds can tell us a lot about what Las Vegas is expecting from our fantasy players. The oddsmakers are accurate more often than not, and this can be a great way to decide who we should start on a weekly basis.

QB Justin Fields, New York Jets

Passing Yards 180+ (+106)

Passing TD 1+ (-195)

Fields enters Week 1 with the lowest passing yards expectations of any quarterback in the NFL. His line of 180+ at +106 is 10 yards lower than Spencer Rattler, 20 yards lower than Daniel Jones, and 70 yards lower than Joe Flacco, and they don't expect him to get there. While we aren't starting Fields for his arm, this is a strong indication that you won't be getting much at all out of him as a passer this week. That could be tough against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has been tough against running quarterbacks under head coach Mike Tomlin.

QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards 230+ (-112)

Passing TDs 2+ (+109)

Herbert has some of the longest odds to throw two TDs this week, and only 12 quarterbacks have a lower yardage line entering Week 1. Vegas expects the Kansas City Chiefs' defense to shut him down. If you are considering putting him in your lineup this week, you should probably just leave him on your bench.

RB Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants

Rushing Yards 60+ (-101)

This is a bigger number for Tracy than we expected. Only 12 players have a higher line than his 60+. The bookies are expecting him to be the clear starter, with Cam Skattebo not even listed. He's expected to excel in his matchup against Washington.

RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards 40+ (+131)

With the exception of the committee in Washington, no starting running back has a 40+ yard rushing line or lower this week. They aren't expecting much out of Williams this week and neither should you. If you drafted him, you should explore every other possible option before starting him.

RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards 50+ (-126)

What's interesting about this isn't necessarily the line; it's the fact that Jordan Mason is listed at 40+ (-120). Vegas expects this to be a full-blown committee. This should give you more confidence in Mason, but potentially a lot less in Jones if you are expecting anything like you got last season.

WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards 70+ (+118)

This is a big number for Worthy. They are expecting clear WR1 output from Worthy with Rashee Rice suspended to start the season. With the exception of Ja'Marr Chase, no other player in the league has a line above 80+, so they are expecting him to be on that second tier of fantasy wideouts.

WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Receiving Yards 50+ (+108)

This isn't what you want to see if you are planning on rolling with Wilson as your WR2. This is a line that most teams have set for their second receiving option, not their top guy. It makes sense paired with Fields's low expectations, but that doesn't make it better for fantasy

WR Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders

Receptions 5+ (+128)

This is a strong number for Samuel. That 5+ mark is among the better in the league for WR2s and the same as Terry McLaurin. McLaurin has much better odds to get to five at -112, but this does show that Vegas expects Samuel to be very involved in the offense and maybe more of a WR1b as far as volume goes.

TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Receptions 6+ (+125)

Only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride have their receptions line set above 6+. This is a great sign for Njoku heading into Week 1. Vegas clearly thinks that Joe Flacco and Njoku will revive their chemistry and torch a bad Bengals' defense.

TE Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards 25+ (-129)

This is an alarmingly low number, especially when you consider that Pat Freiermuth has his line set at 25+ (-128). Vegas believes that these two tight ends are going to split work evenly. That's bad news for fantasy owners who drafted Smith coming off a monster season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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