Chiefs Vs Chargers: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, More Week 1 Fantasy Projections

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will travel to São Paulo, Brazil, for their opening 2025 NFL game. For the fantasy team drafting on Saturday and Sunday, the outcomes of player stats are considered free looks in the high-stakes market due to them offering an overall contest with drafts before and after each matchup.

TV: YouTube

Time: 8:00 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Kansas City -8.5 points

Over/Under: 46.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 1, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Chiefs and Chargers.

Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 Projections

Week 1 Chiefs Projections — Shawn Childs

Kansas City has won the AFC West for nine consecutive seasons, leading to three Super Bowl victories and two losses over the past six years. In the future’s market heading into Week 1, the Chiefs are the fourth favorite (+850) to win the Super Bowl in 2025.

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes (QB) comes over a down season due to Travis Kelce losing his ability to make big plays and score touchdowns. Much of his failure was tied to a weaker wide receiver corps after Kansas City lost Rashee Rice to an injury. Unfortunately for Mahomes, he’ll be without his star wideout for the first six games this year. His matchup suggests a mid-tier QB2 ranking by my projection, while still expecting him to have a 20-point fantasy day.

His opening start looks like this, based on my data: 23-for-36 with 230 passing yards and two touchdowns. DraftKings set these opening lines:

Pass Attempts (35.5/-126 under)
Completions (23.5/-120 over)
Passing yards (245.5/-113 over)
Touchdowns (1.5/-143 over)

Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy (WR) should be much better in his second year with the Chiefs. He has speed to burn, while coming off an excellent finish (8/157/2) to last season in the Super Bowl. Over his final five games in 2024, Worthy caught 34 of his 41 targets for 431 yards and five touchdowns. He also chipped in with 28 rushing yards.

I have him projected to catch five passes for 65 yards with a 75% chance of scoring a touchdown. DraftKings set his over/under in catches at 5.5 (-142 under) and his receiving yards at 62.5 (-114 under). Worthy is +130 to scoring a touchdown.

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce (TE) is a Hall of Fame player, but the fantasy market isn’t confident that he has one more top season in him. For much of his NFL career, he had been a top-three-round drafted player in the fantasy market. His telling stat from 2024 was his decline to 8.5 yards per catch. In addition, Kelce scored only three touchdowns last year.

I have him projected to catch five passes for 40 yards in his first game with a 50% chance of reaching the end zone. DraftKings set his Week 1 line at 5.5 catches (-147 under), 48.5 receiving yards (-114 under), and +170 line to score a touchdown.

Los Angeles Chargers Week 1 Projections

Los Angeles Chargers Projections — Shawn Childs

The AFC West has four great NFL coaches, suggesting the Raiders, Chargers, and Broncos are closing the gap in their division. Los Angeles added more offensive firepower in this year's draft – Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris, while also signing two veteran players (Najee Harris and Keenan Allen).

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert (QB) comes off a season with only 504 pass attempts (29.6 per game) while having two elite passing seasons on his resume (672 and 699 attempts leading to 5,014 and 4,739 yards). His earlier high-profile success passing the ball shows he has that club in his bag if the Chargers want to attack via the pass.

Herbert’s opening projections against the Chiefs are 22-for-35 for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Here’s DraftKings' prop lines for him:

Pass Attempts (31.5/-116 under)
Completions (20.5/-119 under)
Passing Yards (-113 over)
Passing Touchdowns (1.5/-139 under)

Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton (RB) will be an exciting watch in his first NFL game. He brings a high ceiling on all three downs, but Najee Harris is going to steal touches from him. My outlook came to 13 rushes for 54 yards with a 50% chance of scoring a rushing touchdown. I have him also projected to catch two passes for 14 yards.

DraftKings set his rushing attempts at 11.5 (-125 over), leading to 47.5 yards (-115 over). Hampton is +155 to score a touchdown.

Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey (WR) had a fabulous rookie season (82/1,149/7), and he looks poised to be even better this year. In his only game vs. Kansas City last year, he had five catches for 67 yards and one touchdown. I have him penciled in for seven catches for 92 yards with a 75% chance of reaching the end zone.

His DraftKings lines have him on a path to catch 5.5 passes (-121 over) for 72.5 yards (-114 under). McConkey is +180 to score a touchdown.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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