NFL Week 11 Survival Pool Strategy: Ravens, Cowboys and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 11:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Ravens Over Browns (Pick %: 17% Spread: -7.5)
The Ravens are the biggest betting favorites, and they’re the second-largest favorites in Survivor on Yahoo this week. They’ve won their last three games and are primed to continue that win streak with a defense that’s finally clicking and Lamar Jackson back under center. However, Baltimore is projected to be an even bigger favorite next week against the Jets at home. Still, this is a great spot to use them against a struggling Browns team. Lamar Jackson is 9-5 all-time vs. the Browns, winning his last two matchups. The Ravens play the Steelers and Bengals twice, and the Patriots and Packers from Week 13 onward. They should be in play either this week or next week.
Texans Over Titans (Pick %: 16% Spread: -5.5)
Davis Mills will start a second consecutive game while C.J. Stroud continues to recover from a concussion. He gets a road matchup with the Titans, which may feel like a risky spot, but he’s coming off a masterful comeback against the Jaguars and has a top defense behind him. Houston ranks first in the NFL in defensive EPA per play, while Tennessee is last on offense. In other words, the Texans boast the best defense in the league, while the Titans have the worst offense. The AFC South foes matched up back in Week 4, and the Texans shut out the Titans, 26-0. Cam Ward and company will struggle to do anything on offense, as they’ve done all season. Outside of Weeks 15 (vs. Cardinals) and 16 (vs. Raiders), the Texans won’t have much value, making them a great play in Week 11.
Under The Radar Picks
Cowboys Over Raiders (Pick %: 4% Spread: -3.5)
The Cowboys have been very inconsistent and have struggled on defense this season. However, they still boast one of the top offenses in the NFL despite cooling off recently. The Raiders are a bottom-five team and have lost seven of their last eight games. They’ve collapsed after somehow beating the Patriots in Week 1, with their only other win coming against the Titans. This pick is a simple case of targeting a capable team (at times) playing a bad team. Dallas also doesn’t have many games the rest of the season in which it's projected to be favored. The lack of future value alone makes them a viable under-the-radar play. I like the Cowboys to cover in Week 11.
Dolphins Over Commanders (Pick %: 1% Spread: -2.5)
I’m surprised not to see many others list the Dolphins as a viable option in Week 11. I admit there is definitely some risk involved, but I believe they can pay off big time. Including this week, Miami has a three-week stretch against the Commanders, Saints and Jets. The latter is on the road, this week is in Madrid and the Saints game is at home. The Dolphins are coming off a 30-13 stunner over the Bills and face a Commanders team that has been plagued by injuries on both sides of the ball. Their defense, in particular, has struggled, giving up the third-most yards (394.6) and fourth-most points per game (28). De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle are primed for big games in this one.
One Risky Pick
Steelers Over Bengals (Pick %: 3% Spread: -5.5)
The Packers over the Giants is another I’d consider risky. Although Jameis Winston is starting in place of Jaxson Dart (concussion) and Brian Daboll was fired, the Packers are dealing with many injuries on offense and have struggled in recent weeks. In any event, the Steelers and Bengals are divisional opponents meeting a second time this season. The Bengals already beat the Steelers once as underdogs in Week 7. Joe Flacco picked apart the Steelers' defense, and Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown also had big games. Cincinnati is coming off a bye while Pittsburgh has lost three of its past four. There are simply many factors that make this a game to fade altogether.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football Week 11.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.