NFL Week 15 Survival Pool Strategy: Jaguars, Texans and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate balance between playing it safe and planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 15:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
49ers Over Titans (Pick %: 34% Spread: -12.5)
Checking in as the third-biggest favorites this week is the 49ers. They’re also the most frequent selection in survivor pools for Week 15. San Francisco’s rest-of-season schedule features the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Although Indianapolis is preparing to turn to either a rookie or a 44-year-old quarterback, its offense remains among the highest-scoring units in the NFL. That being said, the 49ers are a “use-now” team. Tennessee has played much better recently, but is still 2-11 and likely still holds the crown for the worst team in the league. The 49ers are as chalk as it gets in Week 15.
Eagles Over Raiders (Pick %: 28% Spread: -11.5)
The Eagles’ struggles have been well documented. However, they play the 2-10 Raiders at home in Week 15. Las Vegas is currently on pace to earn the No. 1 pick and boasts the worst scoring offense in the NFL (15.1 PPG). The Eagles have lost three straight, but each loss came against opponents with a .500 record or better. On the other hand, the Raiders have lost seven straight and have scored more than 17 points just once during that span. Their offense is atrocious, and the Eagles’ defense is among the best in the league. The Eagles still play the Commanders twice to end the season, which gives them future value. But this week is still a prime spot to use Philadelphia.
Under The Radar Picks
Jaguars Over Jets (Pick %: 22% Spread: -13.5)
The Jaguars are tied for the biggest betting favorites with the Seahawks this week. Seattle, which will play against a rookie Riley Leonard or a 44-year-old Philip Rivers, was left off this list because many have already used them. Jacksonville has looked like a team that can make some playoff noise, winning four straight games, three of which were not particularly close. On the other hand, the Jets’ only three wins this season are against losing teams, including the Browns, the Falcons and Bengals before Joe Burrow returned to the lineup. The Jaguars do face the 2-11 Titans in Week 18, but by that time, there’s a possibility they have already clinched the AFC South title. I side with using them this week against the 3-10 Jets.
Texans Over Cardinals (Pick %: 6% Spread: -9.5)
The Texans began the season 0-3 and were 3-5 entering Week 10. They then rattled off five straight wins, including victories over the Jaguars, Bills, Colts and Chiefs. Houston’s recipe is simple: hold its opponent under 20 points, which it has done each of the past four weeks behind an elite defense. The Cardinals have lost five straight, allowing 40 or more points in three games during that stretch. The Texans, however, are a team with future value. They host the Raiders next week and will be among the biggest favorites.
One Risky Pick
Bears Over Browns (Pick %: 11% Spread: -7.5)
Others may disagree, but I see the Bears over the Browns as somewhat of a trap pick. I still acknowledge that the argument for selecting them is quite strong. Chicago is more than a touchdown favorite at home and has no future value, as it’s likely to be an underdog in its final three games this season. The Bears are also 9-2 over their past 11 games, and the Browns lost at home to the Titans last week. However, Cleveland posted its best offensive output since Week 7, as Shedeur Sanders is exactly what the team needed. On the other hand, Caleb Williams has struggled recently. This game will also be played in frigid temperatures and could easily turn into a classic defensive battle, with the ball kept on the ground. That game flow tremendously benefits the Browns.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football Week 15.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.