NFL Week 16 Survival Pool Strategy: Saints, Texans and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate balance between playing it safe and planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 16:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Texans Over Raiders (Pick %: 55% Spread: -14.5)
The Texans are by far the biggest favorites in any game this week. The Raiders are simply the worst team in the NFL. They’re coming off a 31-0 loss to the Eagles, where they recorded 75 total yards. They’re also 2-12 and riding a seven-game losing streak. Las Vegas is awarded by matching up against the hottest team in the NFL in Week 16. The Texans are on a six-game win streak and boast the best defense in the NFL. This is a game between the lowest scoring offense (Raiders - 14 PPG) and the lowest scoring defense (Texans - 16.3). The Raiders will struggle to move the ball in this matchup.
Bills Over Browns (Pick %: 15% Spread: -10.5)
At -10.5, the Bills are the second-biggest favorites in Week 16. Despite the slight jolt of energy Shedeur Sanders has given the Browns, they’re still among the worst teams in the NFL. He, in particular, was awful in his last outing, throwing three interceptions as the Browns scored just three points against the Bears last week. The Bills, on the other hand, have scored 35 or more points in back-to-back games and have come out on the winning end of shootouts. Many survivor players have already selected the Bills, leaving fewer than 15% of users with them. However, they have immense value this week. Buffalo plays the Eagles in Week 17 and the Jets in Week 18. But Week 18 is a tricky spot with the Bills possibly not having anything to play for.
Under The Radar Picks
Saints Over Jets (Pick %: 9% Spread: -5.5)
This is one of my favorite picks of the entire season, let alone Week 16. The Saints may have found themselves something with Tyler Shough, as they’re 3-3 with back-to-back wins since naming him the starter. Still, this pick isn’t so much based on how great the Saints are. It’s mainly in relation to how bad the Jets are. New York is one of the league’s worst defenses, especially in defensive EPA per play, where they rank in the bottom three over the last three weeks. More impressively, it’s yet to pick off a pass. Fellow rookie quarterback Brady Cook may also make his second NFL start on the road. His first one last week didn’t go so well, as he threw three interceptions in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars.
49ers Over Colts (Pick %: 4% Spread: -5.5)
The 49ers were among the most popular survivor pool picks in Week 15, making them an under-the-radar play in Week 16. Daniel Jones's injury has made this a much easier game for the 49ers. Philip Rivers looked exactly as one would picture a 44-year-old quarterback playing in an NFL game after retiring for five years would look. He threw for 120 yards on 18 completions while throwing a touchdown and an interception. On the other hand, the 49ers are the best they’ve looked all season. They’ve won four straight games by double digits and look to continue that streak against the Colts team that has lost four consecutive games.
One Risky Pick
Lions Over Steelers (Pick %: 2% Spread: -6.5)
The 6.5-point spread is a bit generous. I understand the Lions are the No. 1 offense in the NFL, but the Steelers have been playing much better football recently. Aaron Rodgers has looked very impressive each of the last few weeks and has the potential to play spoiler as the Lions fight for a wild-card berth. Pittsburgh is scrappy and has gutted out some nice wins already this season. Detroit also plays on the road vs. the Vikings next week. It actually lost the first matchup in the series, but has a shot at redemption against J.J. McCarthy and Co. The Lions are my potential trap pick to avoid in Week 16.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football Week 16.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.