Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions for the MLB Top-5 AL Cy Young Candidates
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Tarik Skubal enters the 2026 season as the defending AL Cy Young winner. Hence, he is favored to be the repeat winner. This leads us, fantasy baseball managers, to wonder if he can meet expectations, once again? Can he be caught? Who may catch Skubal? Well, we can only hope to telegraph the answer to these questions, but we will try to make hope a reality in our analysis of these top AL Cy Young candidates.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
It will be hard for anyone to contest Skubal as the Cy Young winner. His 2025 statcast form is elite in just about every single category. Skubal has the control, velocity, breaking ball, and IQ as good as anyone in baseball. Unless Skubal gets injured, there is little reason to doubt further dominance.
In fantasy baseball, Skubal is still risky as the P1. He can only go down, rather than rise further off of his already elite output. Nonetheless, it is also hard to argue against picking him as the P1. That, you should probably do.
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
The only pitcher with odds lower than 10/1 to win the AL Cy Young is Crochet. He fielded an xERA of 2.89 and an xBA of .210 in 2026. Crochet throws a deep arsenal of four 16% or higher pitches, mostly with his well-controlled four-seam fastball and 91 MPH cutter. With his 35-degree side-arm action, he makes it very hard for anyone to telegraph his pitches.
In every season that Crochet has been healthy, he has put out elite numbers as a low-3.00 ERA pitcher. Being healthy again in 2026, Crochet expects to meet his expectation as a top-5 fantasy baseball pitcher. For that, you should have little concern about drafting him.
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
In a distant third place is deGrom, at a ripe old age of 37. Does he still have his fastball, and literally? DeGrom was elite in 2025 across all key metrics except Exit Velocity and Hard Hit/Barrel Rates. When deGrom leaves his pitches hanging, he gets slammed. This has been a constant since he was a Met; just now, it is becoming more and more prevalent.
With two pitches commanding much of deGrom's arsenal, he must maintain elite control. Between deGrom's age and injury history, he may only be trending downwards this year. Fantasy baseball managers may be better off fading deGrom as a top-5 pitcher and shooting for higher upside players down the big board.
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
The 28-year-old is on the up and up in a massive way. He has no worse than a 3.33 xERA in his three-year career, improving each year to peak at an xERA of 2.67 in 2025. Ragans is known for his elite control, which resulted in an xBA of 1.87 and a 100th-percentile K-rate.
Ragans will command a four-seam fastball with ruthless right-to-left movement. This will complement a mixed, unpredictable bag of changeups, curveballs, and sliders. Fantasy baseball managers shall fear not and, dare I say, Ragans may be the prime upside candidate to chase down Skubal. I would certainly wait until rounds 4-5 to draft Ragans rather than splashing early on a player like Crochet.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Brown is still just 27 years old, and he is entering his prime. A player of Brown's talents is a player due for a Cy Young. Unfortunately for him, the competition is heavy.
Statcast shows that Brown was above average in all 13 key metrics circa 2025. Since 2023, Brown has improved consecutively, and last season he had an xERA of 3.14, an xBA of .217, and his best metric was a 97th-percentile Hard Hit Rate.
Brown is a heavy in-pitcher with three left-to-right pitches on his four-seam fastball, sinker, and curveball, all of which are at relatively average velocity. Brown must maintain elite control, and I would fear that his resume lacks the Cy Young upside of Crochet and Ragans. Brown will be a fade-play for me in fantasy baseball.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.