Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Tier 3 Outfielders
The outfield position has a wide range of different skill sets. The best options offer winning stats in five categories. Unfortunately, the inventory is short in this area, forcing drafters to make difficult decisions when building their rosters. They must compare players at different positions to determine which hitters have the best overall value. At the same time, they need to understand the trade-offs in value in different rounds in drafts.
Here are Fantasy on SI's outfielder rankings 11-15 entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
11 – Jarren Duran, BOS (ADP – 22.7)
The debate when looking at baseball players each season is between progression and regression. The direction a player is moving is critical to having success in the fantasy market. Durran came into 2024 with 643 at-bats in the majors over three seasons. He hit .258 with 86 runs, 13 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 33 stolen bases while striking out 27.7% of the time. He lowered his strikeout rate (24.9) in 2023, a sign of gaining more confidence at the major league level at the plate.
Boston handed him their leadoff job in 2024, and Durran responded with a top-10 fantasy season by FPGscore (6.78). He led the American League in plate appearances (735), at-bats (671), doubles (48), and triples (14) while setting career highs in all other categories. He lowered his strikeout rate to 21.8%, with some improvement in his walk rate (7.4).
Over the first two months of 2024, Duran still had job loss risk (.253/32/3/23/11 over 237 at-bats). His bat caught fire in June (.360 with 26 runs, seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and nine steals over 111 at-bats), with follow-through over the next two months (.302/38/11/29/12 over 215 at-bats). In September, he only hit .241 with 15 runs, no home runs, six RBIs, and two steals. Duran held his own against lefties (.255/25/4/18/8 over 208 at-bats). He hit 14 of his 21 home runs on the road.
His exit velocity (90.8) was higher than in 2023 (89.9). He ranked 75th in hard-hit rate (43.9). Duran finished with small increases in his HR/FB rate (11.7) and fly-ball rate (35.2) while still having a groundball swing path (46.6%). His strength in contact batting average (.374) was supported by his minor league career (.392).
Play No. 84 of 2024: Jarren Duran powers his way to being named All-Star Game MVP! 💪 pic.twitter.com/APmn95BM0s
— MLB (@MLB) November 30, 2024
Fantasy Outlook: I’m never a fan of a player having a career season, especially well above their previous resume. On the positive side, Duran did have success at AAA (.266/103/28/80/36 over 564 at-bats), which maybe should have foreshadowed his potential coming into last season. At age 28, his window to get paid in the majors is relatively short. Did he ENHANCE his chances in 2024? By his stats, yes, but Duran won’t be a free agent until 2029. I’m fading him as I can’t see him repeating his high total of at-bats, and I’m paying for last year’s stats on draft day. If he slumps, will Boston ride him out in 2025? I expect a 15 to 20% regression in his stats this year.
12 – Ronald Acuna, ATL (ADP – 31.7)
As the calendar flipped to March last year, Acuna was a late scratch from the Braves lineup in spring training. The high-stakes market had him pinned as the first overall pick for six months after his historic 2023 season. After some testing on his right knee (meniscus issue), he was back taking batting practice a week later and playing the outfielder in games by the middle of the month.
There was something clearly wrong with his knee or knees based on his lost power (four home runs and 15 RBIs) over his first 192 at-bats. Acuna had a dismal RBI rate (10) and a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.458). His left knee (torn ACL) gave away on May 26th, followed by his surgery on June 7th. The recovery time for this type of injury typically takes nine months, putting Acuna on track to return in April. Atlanta has already floated out there that he won’t be ready for opening day.
In 2021, Acuna had surgery to repair his right ACL on July 22nd. He returned to game action on April 28th the following season (just over nine months), leading to him missing the first 19 games. Acuna ran over his 22 starts (.284/13/2/10/9 over 81 at-bats), but he struck out 32.3% of the time. Groin, quad, and foot injuries led to 12 missed games in May and June. His best production came over the final two months (.275/31/7/27/7 over 204 at-bats). Acuna stole 20 of his 29 bases before the All-Star break.
With this in mind, the fantasy market can’t expect Acuna to produce anywhere close to his stats in 2023 this season.
Last year, he had a career-high groundball rate (51.1), with a further decline in his fly-ball rate (27.3) and weakness in his HR/FB rate (10.5 – 24.0 in 2023 and 12.8 in 2022). His exit velocity (92.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.6) weren’t that far off his career averages (92.3/50.8).
Fantasy Outlook: I expect Acuna back by mid-April if he doesn’t have a setback. His ADP will fluctuate in March based on his news and ability to get on the field. When in the starting lineup, the Braves will bat him leadoff, and he wants to run. As the 25th batter drafted in mid-January, Acuna would need to produce a season in the range of stats with Jackson Merrill, Bryce Harper, Jackson Chourio, or Trea Turner in 2024.
13 – Wyatt Landford, TEX (ADP – 50.0)
After two dynamic seasons (.364 with 156 runs, 47 home runs, 120 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases over 492 at-bats) at the University of Florida, the Rangers selected Langford with the fourth overall selection in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Over the back half of the 2023 baseball season, his bat pushed through four minor league levels, with success at every stop. Langford hit .360 over 161 at-bats for the year with 36 runs, 10 home runs, 30 RBIs, and 12 steals. He finished with an elite walk rate (18.0) with a favorable strikeout rate (17.0). Langford had more walks (128) between college and the pros than strikeouts (123).
The Rangers had Langford in their opening-day lineup in 2024. He looked overmatched over his first 116 at-bats (.224/13/1/11/1) before landing on the injured list for three weeks with a hamstring issue. His bat came around in June (.309/11/3/22/6 over 97 at-bats), but Langford only had nine home runs over his first 399 at-bats. A hot three games (5-for-13 with five runs, two home runs, and eight RBIs) in early September vs. the Yankees set the stage for a good end to the season (.300/25/8/20/7 over 100 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (20.7) and walk rate (9.2) beat the league average. Langford has success with runners on base (RBI rate – 17). He had a balanced swing path, but his HR/FB rate (9.9) was well below his limited minor league resume (21.3%). Langford ranked 93rd in exit velocity (89.6) and 78th in hard-hit rate (43.4). His launch angle (16.6) bodes well for more power.
With minimal experience in the minors, his contact batting average (.328) finished below his college (.442) and minor league (.457) careers. Langford also fell well short of expectations with his average hit rate (1.643 – 1.879 in the minors and 2.056 in college).
Fantasy Outlook: His 2024 stats projected over 550 at-bats came to 82 runs, 18 home runs, 82 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases. He finished the season ranked 62nd in FPGscore (0.43) while outperforming his rookie expectations in speed. Landford is a bet-on-the-come player, but one must believe in his ceiling, not his shortfalls in some rookie metrics. I expect him to bat third for the Rangers once his bat heats, pointing to higher outputs counting stats. I see a .300/100/30/100/20 player, making Langford a player to fight for in drafts in 2025.
14 – Michael Harris, ATL (ADP – 38.4)
After an excellent start at AA (.294/33/5/33/11 over 174 at-bats) in 2022, the Braves called up Harris to the majors in late May. His bat had instant success over his first 31 games (.325 with 20 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and four steals) while hitting ninth in Atlanta’s batting order. He had a productive July (13/5/13/7 over 90 at-bats) despite hitting only .222. Harris ended the year with top-of-the-order production (.314 with 42 runs, 10 home runs, 34 RBIs, and nine steals over 210 at-bats).
Harris failed to match his rookie stats in his first entire season with the Braves in 2023 despite having 91 more at-bats. He missed three weeks in April with a back issue, followed by two more injuries (knee and foot). Over his first 109 at-bats, Harris hit .174 with 12 runs, two home runs, eight RBIs, and five stolen bases. His bat (.326/54/16/49/15 over 396 at-bats) reached his expected potential over the last four months.
After a slow start over the first two and a half months (.250/30/5/20/8 over 260 at-bats), Harris landed on the injured list for 60 days with a hamstring issue. He flashed more power (11 home runs) over his final 180 at-bats, but his speed (two steals) left the building.
His strikeout rate (20.0) rose slightly while continuing to have a low walk rate (4.9 – 4.7 in the minors). Harris had a regression in his contact batting average (.335 – .381 over his first 919 at-bats with the Braves), with a decline in his average hit rate (1.586).
His groundball swing path (49.4%) led to a low fly-ball rate (29.9). Harris has some pullback in his exit velocity (90.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.0). His HR/FB rate (15.4) rated well each year in the majors.
Play No. 4 of 2024: Where does Michael Harris II's home run robbery rank in baseball history? 😮 pic.twitter.com/VnT65feKxG
— MLB (@MLB) December 14, 2024
Fantasy Outlook: Locking in a favorable slot in the batting order has been an issue for Harris in his career. He doesn’t take enough walks to seize the two-hole job, and Atlanta has too much middle-of-the-order depth for him to earn a premium RBI opportunity. In addition, Harris has been a below-par hitter with runners on bases (RBI rate – 13.7) over the past two seasons. He handled lefties (.286/19/7/19 over 140 at-bats) well in 2024. I like his potential in batting average (.290), home runs (20+), and steals (20+), setting the stage for a five-category season in 2025.
15 – James Woods, WAS (ADP – 56.3)
The Padres drafted Wood out of high school in the second round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over his first two and half seasons at the lower levels (RK, A, and High A) of the minors, he hit .318 over 529 at-bats with 121 runs, 23 home runs, 120 RBIs, and 38 stolen bases, painting a high-profile bat. The Nationals acquired him at the trade deadline in 2022 in the Juan Soto deal with San Diego.
In his first experience at AA in 2023, Wood lost his edge at the plate (.248/48/18/55/10) due to a much higher strikeout rate (33.7). The following year. His bat dominated at AAA (.353 with 44 runs, 10 home runs, 37 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 190 at-bats) while showing a much better approach (40 walks and 42 strikeouts – 18.2% strikeout rate).
Washington called him up on June 28th after battling a hamstring issue. His batting average was an issue in July (.245/12/2/16/2) and September (.248/13/4/10/3) while flashing a higher ceiling in August (.302 with 18 runs, three home runs, 15 RBIs, and nine steals over 96 at-bats). His strikeout rate (28.9) regressed while maintaining a high walk rate (11.6).
Wood graded well in exit velocity (92.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (52.0%), but he hit a ton of ground balls (55.6%) with a low fly-ball rate (22.2). His HR/FB rate (20.5) shows his power impact when the ball is in the air.
Fantasy Outlook: In his whole minor league career, Wood had an elite contact batting average (.443), allowing him to have a reasonable floor in batting average until his approach catches up in the majors. Pitchers will have a better handle on him in 2025, forcing Wood to be more patient at the plate. If not, they will expand the strike zone on him, creating more swings and misses. The Nationals are rebuilding their offense, pointing to Wood getting a chance to bat in the upper half of their lineup. He is certainly tempting due to his baseline skill set in power and speed. I expect a couple of down months, but Wood should help fantasy teams in four categories (runs, home runs, RBIs, and steals) this season.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.