Fantasy Football Week 9 Tight End Projections & Rankings: Start Mike Gesicki, Sit Dalton Kincaid
These tight end projections help predict what might happen in Week 9 fantasy football. We analyzed usage rates, matchups, red zone stats, and more. The projections find risers in Tucker Kraft and Isaiah Likely. It also finds fallers in Tyler Warren and Dalton Kincaid. Let the numbers fuel your start-sit decisions.
Top-12 Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely is the TE3 in fantasy football through seven games. He averages 8.6 targets per game with a 68% catch rate and 5 touchdowns. He is one of a few players in the race for the fantasy football top "league winner."
Kittle is TE1 this week, but volatile at that. His greatest value-add is big-scoring touchdowns. Kittle is tied for the most touchdowns at his position (5) and has 11 red zone targets, 7 of which have been from inside the 10-yard line. His chance to score is 55.3%, but if he fails, he could easily fall out of the top 5.
I speculate that Tucker Kraft is finally playing healthy. Kraft averaged 3.0 receptions over his first three games and 5.3 per game over his last five. Kraft has also scored in back-to-back games, and I will boldly predict that Kraft finishes as a top-5 tight end once the season is finished.
High-Upside Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta has 10 red-zone targets, including 8 from inside the 10-yard line. The Dolphins also rank third-worst in Yards per Target Allowed to tight ends.
Mike Gesicki is one of the most efficient touchdown scorers at his position. Though he has only five red-zone targets this season, Gesicki has caught four red-zone touchdowns. I would actually prefer benching Gesicki, but if you need to hit a home run, he is better than most other non-top-15 options.
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Fade These Tight Ends
Kincaid is a stumbler in the projections for a couple of reasons. For one, he has fewer than 40 yards in four of his last five games, and in two of them Kincaid didn't even reach double digits. The Bills also face the Vikings this week, who rank 7th-toughest in Yards per Target Allowed to tight ends and the toughest overall in Fantasy Points Allowed to tight ends, while pitching a shutout in touchdowns allowed.
Juwan Johnson has 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 23 yards over his last three games. He has fallen to TE17 in fantasy football. In games where Johnson has not scored a touchdown, he averages fewer than 6 PPR fantasy points per game.
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Sleeper of the Week
Greg Dulcich has at least 5 targets and 4 receptions in four of his last five games. He features an 82% catch rate and averages 11.6 Yards per Reception, 9th-best among starting tight ends.
The caveat is that the Lions, who play Dulcich's Dolphins this week, are solid against tight ends in yards allowed. But they allow tight-end touchdowns, having permitted 11 scores this season. Dulcich leads all Dolphins in red zone target share (36%).
Week 9 Projected Statistical Leaders
- Targets: Trey McBride (10.1)
- Receptions: Trey McBride (7.4)
- Yards: Isaiah Likely (67.0)
- Anytime Touchdown: George Kittle (55.3%)
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.