Week 1 Fantasy Football Running Back Projections and Rankings: Travis Etienne Jr. is a Week-Winner
It is about that time fantasy football managers get to unleash their top draft picks. Jahmyr Gibbs will play in front of his loud home crowd, Bijan Robinson will go to Pittsburgh, and Jonathan Taylor will play as the home team against the Baltimore Ravens. Who has RB1 overall upside? I cannot say for certain, but the Week 1 running back projections shall shine a light on the debate.
Top-12 Running Backs
Gibbs takes the helm as RB1 in Week 1. I expect he will often be in the spot all season long. So long as Isiah Pacheco is out, Gibbs can have over 80% of the Lions' rushing offense. He is matchup-proof.
McCaffrey is going to play despite speculation that he might not. He will probably be at or near 100%. Last year's RB1 should perform in the top 3 in any given week that he is healthy. There is no risk in playing in Australia. In fact, the 49ers have been there for a week, and the temperatures will be in the pleasant mid-to-high 50's.
The RB1 Risers
Fantasy football is a game of inches. At running back, a favorable matchup can elevate a player from the RB15-20 range to the fringe top-10 range. Travis Etienne Jr. is a prime example.
Detroit has a mediocre projected run stop. The game projects a high total of 50.5. Added that Jordyn Tyson is hurt and Alvin Kamara is out; Etienne Jr. may eclipse a 15% target share. His floor is quite high.
The Patriots have listed TreVeyon Henderson as out for Week 1. In turn, Rhamondre Stevenson will have a massive workload. The only other running back the team has is 2025 undrafted free agent Corey Kiner.
The Best RB2's
Many injuries are in the air. We expect Ashton Jeanty to play, as should Breece Hall and Chuba Hubbard. They are all listed as questionable as of Wednesday afternoon.
MarShawn Lloyd is a must-start so long as Jacobs is on the Commissioner's Exempt List. Lloyd shall have around 56% of the Packers' rushing volume. Chris Brooks will range around 22%, and Jordan Love, 12%.
The Best Upside Plays
The Rams are the best team in the NFL. I would be hard-pressed to hear out an argument and agree with it. They are at the top of most positional groups, as I posted earlier today on X. The rankings are derived from player ratings on current rosters based on 2025 output.
Anyway, I love Blake Corum this week. The split is expected to be 60-40% in favor of Kyren Williams. If any NFL team can support two ball carriers, it is Los Angeles. Corum is my RB32 this week. His chance to find the end zone is just north of 50%. The 49ers oppose LA, and they are rated a bottom-5 run-stop.
Chris Brooks and Mike Washington Jr. sit around the mid-RB40 ranking. Both running backs will supplement their starters. Brooks backs up Lloyd, who will not be awarded a snap-share beyond 65%. Washington Jr. helps out as Jeanty plays at less than 100%. Their floors are high for being backup running backs. I prefer them, surely, in DFS formats above all else.
Fade These Running Backs
On the Cardinals’ unofficial depth chart ahead of Sunday’s regular-season opener vs. the Chargers, Tyler Allgeier is listed as RB1 and rookie Jeremiyah Love is listed as RB2. pic.twitter.com/XqTskse0uk
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 8, 2026
Jeremiyah Love may still be a starter for many, but if you have depth, I would sit him. Love has yet to be confirmed as active in Week 1. The team also just designated Tyler Allgeier as their RB1 (on paper). Given that the Cardinals may have a 2nd-half pass script in a possible blowout, the upside is minimal for Love.
Chuba Hubbard is probably going to play, and his cohort, Jonathan Brooks, is definitely going to play. Nonetheless, the backfield has some volatility. I only project Hubbard as this week's RB30 and am worried that the Bears' strong rushing attack owns the game clock and leads the game.
Sleeper of the Week
Kenneth Gainwell is among my lowest-risk players in all of 2026. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed the guy to be an immediate factor. Bucky Irving will be the bruiser, and Gainwell will catch balls, just as he had become, RB14 in 2025 up in Pittsburgh.
The Bengals were great in 2025 against opposing wide receivers. Not so good against running backs. Last year, they ranked 31st against running backs and allowed the 29th-most yards to the position. We now see a game total of 50.5. Gainwell shall see plenty of work, especially if Emeka Egbuka is out.
Week 1 Projected Leaders;
- Rushing Attempts: Jahmyr Gibbs (20.9)
- Rushing Yards: Jahmyr Gibbs (89.9)
- Rushing Touchdowns: Jahmyr Gibbs (1.1)
- Receptions: Christian McCaffrey (4.7)
- Receiving Yards: Christian McCaffrey (42.4)
- Receiving Touchdowns: Gibbs, McCaffrey, Robinson (0.3)
Best Run Scripts of the Week
Los Angeles Chargers: As 10-point favorites, the expectation is that the Chargers will run out the clock late in the game. That can give Omarion Hampton 2-5 extra carries. Already a top-10 running back this week, Hampton is a player to love with top-5 upside.
Philadelphia Eagles: A team that already enjoys running the ball, their volume may inflate as a 5.5-point favorite against Washington and at home. That Lincoln Financial Field crowd is going to be loud. Trust me, it will shift the game in the favor of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.