Win Super Bowl Fantasy Football: Projecting True Anytime Touchdown Probabilities
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Whether you are participating in Fantasy Football, DFS, or simply betting, there is one crucial factor to consider. This is the most significant value-add to achieve ultimate upside. That factor? Touchdowns. Who is most likely to score, and are the names that you may expect? Well, it is not always the names you expect. While many people play certain players, we can play the RIGHT players. These are the most likely touchdown scorers in Super Bowl LX.
Kenneth Walker III — 60% (-190)
Walker III is projected to have about 70% of the rushing yards for this Seahawks offense. However, he may be a bit overvalued by some. The Patriots are ranked 4th against running backs, which should cause some issues. Nonetheless, Walker III will have tremendous value. We can expect Holani to account for 10-25% of the volume, with the rest going to jet sweeps and Darnold scrambles.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 40%
Often, wide receivers are overvalued because of expectations to find the end zone. Smith-Njigba has 12 touchdowns in 19 games. That means that he scores in about 65% of games. In this game, the Patriots may cause issues, ranking above average versus wide receivers. The Seahawks also project a more-likely-than-not run script as (4.5) point favorites.
Rhamondre Stevenson — 35% (+140)
The Patriots will be fielding a volatile backfield. Stevenson had 94% of running back snaps in the AFC Championship Game. However, we project this split between Stevenson to be more like 75-25%, with 50-50% potential. In the red zone, the two running backs have about split work on the season, but trends should give Stevenson the advantage. They have a combined (16) touchdowns on the season.
Hunter Henry — 25% (+240)
Henry will be the Patriots' No. 1 red zone receiving threat. He leads all Patriots pass-catchers with 8 touchdowns in 19 games. He has a red zone target share just north of 20%. Best of all, the Seahawks are bottom-10 in the NFL against tight ends. He is a strong DFS play for increased touchdown upside compared to his counterparts at his cost.
AJ Barner — 20% (+240)
The NFL's best short yardage rusher in terms of 1st down percentage on 3rd/4th down carries with 3 or fewer yards to go:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 2, 2026
Seahawks TE AJ Barner (87.5%) pic.twitter.com/1Pqr4yCuko
Barner is not only a red zone threat, but a goal-line threat. The Seahawks ran the Barner-push much more in the early season. However, it is still a threat to show up on the goal line. He has a 22% red zone share of touches. Like Henry, Barner is a great DFS play at a cost, given his touchdown ability.
TreVeyon Henderson — 15% (+480)
If you'd like to fade the public, that could work. It sounds like fans aren't high on Henderson after his flop in the NFC Championship Game. However, he does have about equal red zone touches on the season to Stevenson. This split is due to the need for pass protection. If the Patriots generate momentum on offense, Henderson has a chance to have a nice game.
George Holani — 15% (+550)
Holani is volatile. He had seven touches in the NFC Championship Game. He also has 6 red zone touches on the season, through three key games. Klint Kubiak likes to use multiple running backs, so Holani should get work. However, his touchdown upside rings much higher if the Seahawks lose this game. Otherwise, they may trust Walker much more when in close. Holani is the best sleeper pick in this game.
Stefon Diggs — 15% (+270)
Diggs is the fan-favorite pick that we must fade. His red-zone target share is below 15%, and for big plays, that will go to others like Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams, who is a deep sleeper. The Patriots are not a big-play team. Diggs has only five touchdowns in 20 games, and this is one of his toughest matchups of the year.
Kayshon Boutte — 15% (+330)
Boutte hardly sees the ball in the red zone. If the Patriots are in that area, do not look to Boutte. He will be unlikely to see work. However, Boutte has 7 touchdowns this season. He is a threat if the Seahawks soften up in their safety coverage. He is a moderate sleeper option in DFS.
Mack Hollins — 15% (+430)
The Patriots like to spread the ball around. That is why their No. 1 wide receiver (Diggs) caps out at a 21% target share. Hollins had only two touchdowns this season, and he will have about a 15% red-zone target share.
Cooper Kupp — 12% (+260)
At name value, Kupp may take some ownership from casual fans. He has only three touchdowns in 18 games and a sub-15% red zone target share. The Seahawks love to run the ball in the red zone, so Kupp is not the hot pick he was circa 2021, when he won the Super Bowl MVP.
Other Projections:
- Rashid Shaheed — 10% (+370)
- Demario Douglas — 9% (+650)
- Elijah Arroyo — 6% (+1000)
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.