Vikings vs. Falcons: How to Use Kyle Pitts, Michael Penix, and JJ McCarthy in Fantasy
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The Atlanta Falcons (0-1) face the Minnesota Vikings (1-0) on Sunday night, setting the stage for two developing young quarterbacks. Both passing offenses were at their best last week in the fourth quarter due to falling behind on the scoreboard.
TV: NBC
Time: 8:20 PM EST
Vegas Line (DraftKings): Minnesota -3.5 points
Over/Under: 44.5
To help game managers set their rosters in Week 2, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for Atlanta and Minnesota.
Atlanta Falcons Week 2 Fantasy Football Projections
Atlanta outplayed the Buccaneers last week based on yards gained (358 to 260) and time of possession (35:12 to 24:58). Unfortunately, they failed on a fourth-down short-yardage run near midfield with a 7-3 lead in the second quarter, leading to Tampa converting into a 52-yard drive for a touchdown. The Falcons also missed a game-tying field goal late in the game. They played without their WR2 (Darnell Mooney).
DraftKings set Michael Penix’s passing over/under at 228 yards (-113) while not listing a line yet for his passing touchdowns. This week, our passing projections for Penix came at 243 yards, but there is an imbalance in expectation in combined receiving yards (216), partly due to the questionable status of Darnell Mooney (upgraded to start). In these cases, I tend to trust the receiving outlook more.
My receiver projections for the Falcons’ top two wideouts almost matched DraftKings prop lines in Week 2.
The only rushing yards prop listed for this matchup by DraftKings is Bijan Robinson (67.5 yards). He comes off a dull rushing game (12/24), but Robinson was stellar catching the ball (6/100/1). He scored 24.40 fantasy points, which was the norm for him over his final half of 2024. The Falcons had him on the field for 83% of their plays. He rushed for 68 yards or more eight times last year, highlighted by his six straight games to end the year. Robinson (22/92/1 with two catches for nine yards) faced the Vikings in Minnesota once in 2024.
Kyle Pitts (7/59 on eight targets) was active in Week 1, thanks to the Falcons’ playing without their second-best wide receiver. The start to his season looks promising, suggesting top 12 tight end in the fantasy market this year.
Minnesota Vikings Week 2 Fantasy Football Projections
The fantasy market was ready to launch J.J. McCarthy into the free agent pool after three quarters against the Bears. He threw an ill-advised touchdown scoring interception on a play where another wideout was breaking free for a wide-open score. In the end, Minnesota only threw the ball 20 times, compared to 32.2 in 2024 and 37.1 in 2023.
DraftKings set low bars in completions, pass attempts, and passing yards (213.5) for McCarthy in Week 2. I have him projected to pass for 247 yards, which is more reflective of the Vikings’ offense game plan over the past couple of seasons than his Week 1 results.
In the first game, with Jordan Mason added to Minnesota’s offense, the Vikings gave their new running back 30 snaps (54%) compared to 28 snaps (50%) by Aaron Jones. Mason ran the ball with power, showcasing his scoring potential inside the five-yard line. As a result, I adjusted both players' early down running opportunities this week.
DraftKings hasn’t released any receiving yards over/under lines on Thursday due to waiting to know the status of Drake London and Darnell Mooney (both players will play). On the Vikings’ side, they probably want to have more reflection on how Minnesota ran its offense before releasing their receiving props this week. Jalen Nailor firmly secured WR2 snaps (88%) while Adam Thielen was on the field for 32 plays (57%).
I have Justin Jefferson projected for six catches for 85 yards with a 75% chance of scoring this week.
T.J. Hockenson falls into last week’s bum category in Week 2. He gained only 15 yards with three catches on four targets. Minnesota had him on the field for 80% of their plays last week.
Fantasy Football Start / Sit Decisions
As for starting in the fantasy market, Penix is an easy sit. Until he has his full complement of healthy wideouts, his only trusted weapon is Bijan Robinson. The two star players (Bijan Robinson and Justin Jefferson) are every week starters, while Drake London should be active in this matchup, barring any setbacks. T.J. Hockenson should be the better start at tight end, but Pitts does have hot hand status in this matchup.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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