Week 4 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Mark Andrews vs. Juwan Johnson

Should fantasy football managers roll with Mark Andrews or Juwan Johnson at tight end in Week 4?

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Last week, I had a Mark Andrews or Juwan Johnson tight end decision in one league. Fortunately, I rode my two weeks of beatings by the Ravens’ tight end (1/5 and 1/2) rather than jumping to the hot hand of Johnson (8/76 and 5/49/1). Andrews rewarded my confidence with a correction game (6/91/2), lifting him to 10th in tight end scoring (30.00) in PRR formats.

I tend to be a “play my stud” fantasy manager, which can be a fault when a younger player passes a proven option in fantasy value.  

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first half at SoFi Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Heading into this week, Johnson sits second in fantasy points (42.60) at tight end, with an impressive opportunity (28 targets – four behind the league lead at his position). Over the past two years, he ranked 26th (37/368/4 on 59 targets) and 17th (50/548/3 on 66 targets) at tight end while competing with Tyson Hill (33/291/2 and 23/187/0) and Foster Moreau (21/193/1 and 32/413/5) for snaps and targets. 

Surprisingly, New Orleans scored 266.90 fantasy points (PPR) last season at tight end, ranking fifth in the NFL (108/1,169/7 on 144 targets). They finished ninth in 2023 (97/891/10 on 130 targets).

This week, Johnson faces Buffalo, which has a defense that has played well against tight ends this year (five catches for 32 yards and one touchdown on seven targets – BAL – 1/5, NYJ – 2/10/1, and MIA – 2/17). The Bills get extra credit for slowing down Mark Andrews in Week 1, but they faced two weak tight end offenses in their other two matchups.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Despite coming off a great game, Andrews only had six targets last week, giving him 10 chances all year. In 2024, the Ravens’ tight ends led the NFL in tight end scoring (342.10) in PPR formats, with their lead tight end accounting for 55.2% of that output. Baltimore’s tight end gained a significant edge by scoring 18 times (no other team scored more than eight touchdowns via their tight ends).

In Week 1 in 2024, Baltimore had Andrews on the field for 74% of their plays against the Chiefs, but he caught only two passes for 14 yards on two targets. The previous year, after missing seven games with an injury, he had a similar failure against Kansas City (2/15). Baltimore is 1-4 in games against their AFC West rival, with Andrews being a non-factor (13/108 on 24 targets). The Chiefs played well so far against tight ends (8/102 on 12 targets), but they are gaining 12.8 yards per catch.

• Los Angeles Chargers (3/68 on three targets)
• Philadelphia Eagles without Dallas Goedert (2/11 on three targets)
• New York Giants (3/23 on four targets)

In essence, Kansas City played three teams with low-ranking tight ends.

The Verdict: Juwan Johnson Vs. Mark Andrews

Opportunity is a key part of winning players in fantasy football, and Johnson has a wide edge over Andrews at this point of the year. The Saints almost use him as a big wide receiver, and defenses aren’t keying on Johnson in their defensive game plan. 

Buffalo will score in this game, and the Saints will be forced to throw due to chasing on the scoreboard, giving more credence to start Johnson. His only downfall could be the Bills’ offense controlling the time of possession in this game, leading to fewer plays and yards for New Orleans’ offense.

Based on previous matchups and predicted game flow, Johnson has the edge in this lineup decision. Andrews' only edge is his fantasy points per touch (4.52 to 1.85 – 3.31 – 2.46 in 2024).