MLB Mock Trade: Twins Deal Pablo López to San Diego Padres

This MLB mock trade explores the Twins sending ace right-hander Pablo López to the Padres in exchange for three high-upside prospects as Minnesota leans into a rebuild.

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. | Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The MLB season is just around the corner. Spring training games will be played in less than two weeks, and the regular season will start next month. As we race towards the start of the season, we expect to see plenty more signings and trades as teams prepare their rosters for opening day.

After dealing a ton of players at last year's trade deadline, we expect the Minnesota Twins to continue to trade their big-name players as they rebuild for another run in the AL Central. One of their top assets they could move is starting right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez. He dealt with injuries last season, but he also pitched at an elite level when he was healthy. Lopez has the talent to be a difference-maker if he lands with a contender in a big trade. 

San Diego Padres - Minnesota Twins Mock Trade

San Diego Padres Receive

RHP - Pablo Lopez

Minnesota Twins Receive

Prospect - RHP - Humberto Cruz

Prospect - 1B - Kale Fountain

Prospect - RHP - Tucker Musgrove 

Fantasy Baseball Impact

The only player who would likely have any impact this season is Lopez, as the rest are all prospects. This would be a great move for Lopez, who already had a career best in ERA at 2.74 and WHIP at 1.11 last season. Target Field in Minnesota is considered one of the five most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, while Petco Park in San Diego is one of the three most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the league. Competing for a playoff spot with World Series aspirations should only help drive both the player and team to play at the highest possible level. 

Senior Fantasy Baseball Expert Shawn Childs had this to say about Lopez heading into the 2026 MLB season:

Other than allowing four runs in two starts last season, Lopez gave the Twins a chance to win in his other 12 games (two runs or fewer in each contest). Despite his progression, his walk rate (2.4) rose slightly with further regression in his strikeout rate (8.7 – 9.6 in 2024 and 10.9 in 2023).

Lopez missed three months with a right shoulder issue, and his season ended in September with a right forearm issue. His pitches lost value against left-handed batters (.272 over 162 at-bats with 12 runs, three home runs, and two steals).

His average fastball (94.8 mpg) was down slightly. Lopez had about the same pitch mix (four-seamer – .317 BAA, changeup – .239 BAA, slider – .143 BAA, and curveball –.200 BAA). Three of his pitches faded against left-handed batters (4S – .320 BAA, SL – .308 BAA, and CU – .279 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past six seasons, Lopez went 52-41 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.160 WHIP, and 853 strikeouts over 795.0 innings. I had concerns about his direction last year, and now, he has two more issues (shoulder and forearm) added to his equation. I’ll stick with my theory of avoiding arms with fading strikeout rates. Lopez has a proven major league resume, but I’m fading him again this year due to his increased injury risk. His next step could be TJ surgery.

Shawn Childs

Why The Trade Makes Sense For The San Diego Padres

The Padres are constantly in win-now mode, but also seem to be forever chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers. As currently constructed, they have no choice but to go all in and hope they can knock the Dodgers off in the playoffs. Adding a high-end starting pitcher like Lopez can be the difference between winning a pennant and another early exit in the NL Playoffs. San Diego is one of the most talented teams in the league, but it hasn't been enough. They have to keep pushing. 

Why The Trade Makes Sense For The Minnesota Twins

Minnesota is rebuilding, and they would be getting three talented prospects in this deal.  Humberto is a RHP with the raw talent to be a star if he can put it all together. Fountain is similar to Cruz. He's extremely talented but still needs time to develop, and could be a few years away from making any impact on the next level. Musgrove and his 100-plus MPH fastball are well worth a flier.