Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Debate: Luther Burden III vs Adonai Mitchell

Luther Burden III and Adonai Mitchell both command tremendous volume worth league-winning upside. One player has better upside than the other.

Nov 30, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA;New York Jets wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (15) reacts after a touchdown catch against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

It is never too late to hit the waiver wire. Many of you may be approaching the semifinals, or the championship in your Fantasy Football quest for success. We can always use help and it is always going to be important to stay as knowledgeable as you can. Today, we look at the Wide Receiver position. Two young Wide Receivers — Luther Burden III and Adonai Mitchell — have shown promise worth checking out.

The Case for Luther Burden III

Burden has led this Bears passing attack in targets in each of his last two games as the WR1. This puts him at a total of (13) Targets, (10) Receptions, and (153) Yards. Burden has yet to find the endzone, but in PPR formats, his output has been quite valuable regardless.

2025 WR Yards per route run leaders pic.twitter.com/QllyOtdEDr

— I🧸 (@ilannfl) December 15, 2025

Over these last two games, Burden accounts for a near 26% Target Share. This is a number that competes with the best WR1's in football.

When we look to Week 16, the Bears will be going against the Green Bay Packers. This will be difficult for Burden as the Packers are 10th versus Wide Receivers. They also have arguably the best slot cornerback in the NFL — Javon Bullard.

We expect Burden to maintain his high Target Share, but with less efficiency in a tougher matchup this week. Nonetheless, volume is king, and Burden has it, so he is a must-start in my books.

The Case for Adonai Mitchell

Adonai Mitchell before and after trade

With Colts (8 Games)
-5 games with reception
-one game of 24 yards or more
-no touchdowns
-152 yards

With Jets (5 games)
-5 games with reception
-four games of 24 yards or more
-2 touchdowns
-236 yardspic.twitter.com/KmI7mZq5Ze https://t.co/vLtFfmbfbb

— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) December 15, 2025

Efficient or not, Mitchell has been heavily involved in this offense. Mitchell has no less than (6) Receptions in any game with the Jets. He is averaging (7.6) Targets and (3.6) Receptions per Game. This marks up to (47.2) Yards per Game and (2) Total Touchdowns.

In total, Mitchell has a Target Share just north of 25%. He is the go-to guy in place of Garrett Wilson, a player of which may not return this season.

In Week 16, the Jets will face the Saints. They rank 12th versus Wide Receivers and they are 6th in Passing Yards Allowed, subduing any big plays.

Mitchell has great volume, competitive with Burden, but his matchup projects to be below-average.

Waiver Wire Debate: Luther Burden III vs Adonai Mitchell

Both of these players are in rather hard matchups. Both players own similar targets shares and since Mitchell has maintained it, despite bad Quarterback play, we do not discount him. What I like to do here is look at the Touchdown upside of either player. This is especially for this week, as it may be your last if you do not play sharp Fantasy Football.

Burden III has been the focal point for two games and in those two games, Burden has (1) Red Zone Target. On the year, he has just (4) Red Zone Targets. DJ Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Colston Loveland are looked at far-more often than Burden when they find the Red Zone.

Mitchell has at least one Red Zone Target in every game as a Jet. He has (6) in total. This puts Mitchell as a 22% Red Zone Target Share. He has (2) Touchdowns in this span.

If we are deciding which of these players to start, we are aiming more for upside than safe play as they trend more as Flex/WR2 plays. We did not come this far to settle, we came to win and to do that, we must often go boom-or-bust. That gives me Mitchell.

Start Adonai Mitchell for higher upside than Luther Burden III.