2025 Kentucky Oaks: Top Betting Longshots
The 2025 Kentucky Oaks features three single-digit morning-line betting choices among the 14 standout fillies who will battle it out on Friday. However, horse bettors looking for value will be in search of a longshot who could upset the field.
Our in-depth look at the top betting longshots involves three fillies who could come flying late in the lane, if a pace meltdown takes place in the 1 ⅛ mile challenge.
No. 9 Tenma (12-1)
JOCKEY: Juan Hernandez / TRAINER: Bob Baffert
RECORD: 6 starts: 5-0-1
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 101
RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (mid-pack)
CAREER EARNINGS: $549,000
Bob Baffert’s Tenma is one-third-place finish in the Oak Leaf Stakes (G2), back in October, away from being undefeated. The daughter of Nyquist, who enters the Oaks on a three-race win streak, looked phenomenal in taking down the Las Virgenes Stakes (G3) by 6 ½-lengths at Santa Anita, earning her a career-best 101 Equibase Speed figure. However, many question that effort since she only beat two challengers in a three-horse field.
Is TENMA the biggest threat to Good Cheer in the 2025 Kentucky Oaks? 🌷 pic.twitter.com/9KvZoaFhJ6
— FanDuel Racing (@FanDuel_Racing) April 29, 2025
Baffert dismissed her regression in terms of speed figures (85), despite winning the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) last out, due to the track conditions and he believes the 1 ⅛ will suit her talents on Friday. “In her last race, she won, but she didn’t run that fast,” admitted Baffert. “But the track was a little deep and loose that day and a lot of horses were tiring or she would have run a lot faster in the Santa Anita Derby. The 1 ⅛ , the further the better for her.”
No. 6 Ballerina d’Oro (10-1)
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat / TRAINER: Chad Brown
RECORD: 6 starts: 2-1-1
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 95
RUNNING STYLE: Closer
CAREER EARNINGS: $286,975
Chad Brown’s trainee, Ballerina d’Oro, enters the Oaks off her first career stakes victory in winning the Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 3) by a nose at Aqueduct. On paper, the daughter of Medaglia d'Oro would need to take a major step forward in order to win the Oaks as her speed figures are far below many of the top contenders. However, if she is able to run into a hot pace at the top of the stretch, Flavien Prat could take full advantage.
Ballerina d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro) working Saturday morning for trainer Chad Brown in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks 🌸 pic.twitter.com/RzWAopjFhp
— Courtney Snow (@_CourtneySnow_) April 28, 2025
Following Ballerina d’Oro’s bullet four-furlongs in :48.00 on April 26 workout, Chad Brown is happy about her continued development. “I am happy that she has turned into an Oaks contender and I couldn’t be more pleased with her development,” said Brown. “She has really come along like you would like to see in an early 3-year-old, she is strong and keeps moving forward.”
No. 8 Five G (12-1)
JOCKEY: Manny Franco / TRAINER: George Weaver
RECORD: 6 starts: 3-2-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 97
RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter / Presser
CAREER EARNINGS: $393,740
The daughter of Vekoma is a runner-up finish (by one-length in the Honeybee Stakes) away from winning three consecutive stakes races as a three-year-old. If Five G can take another step forward off her 2 and ¼ - length win over Oaks rival Anna’s Promise in the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr. 2), then she will easily be in the mix on Friday.
Five G dominates the @FasigTiptonCo #GulfstreamPark Oaks G2, @jockeyfranco rode for trainer George Weaver and owner Gatsas Stables. #ChampionshipMeet pic.twitter.com/ns6tYrXUoW
— Gulfstream Park (@GulfstreamPark) March 29, 2025
Five G has been working well at Palm Beach Downs, most recently covering four-furlongs in :49.77 seconds on April 24. Since her speed figures are well below many in this field, she profiles as a solid target for underneath in exotic wagers,
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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-1be8bb0e9ea1ab9f8bfbf612aa95e4bb.jpeg "Frank Taddeo")
Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.