2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: American Promise
On the first Saturday in May, 89-year-old Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas will attempt to win his fifth Kentucky Derby with longshot runner American Promise.
In this installment of my Respected Money Derby betting profiles, we will take a look at a colt who is fresh off setting the course record via his win in the Virginia Derby (G3) by 7 ¾ lengths in March at Colonial Downs.
Kentucky Derby Contenders: American Promise
POST NUMBER: 5
ODDS: 30-1
JOCKEY: Nik Juarez / TRAINER: D. Wayne Lukas
RECORD: 9 starts: 2-1-1
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104
RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (prefers to press the pace)
CAREER EARNINGS: $444,874
This son of Justify and Tapella will look to win the 151st installment of the Run for the Roses, bucking a trend of inconsistent efforts.
American Promise Breeding
Sire: 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who was a perfect 6-for-6 in his racing career, suggests a colt in American Promise who should have no issue handling the 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby.
Dam: Tapella, a daughter of Tapit, displayed solid stamina in a racing career that compiled five in-the-money finishes in eight career races. Meanwhile, Tapit has sired Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), Essential Quality (2021), and 2022 Horse of the Year, Flightline.
American Promise Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements
Jockey Nik Juarez, who guided Actress to her Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) victory in 2017, will be making his Kentucky Derby debut aboard American Promise.
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas is 4-for-51 lifetime in the Kentucky Derby: Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996), and Charismatic (1999).
American Promise dominates the Virginia Derby! 🌹🏇🏽 pic.twitter.com/P7l4bLvQXs
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) March 15, 2025
American Promise Race History
American Promise has a career record of two wins, two runner-ups, and one third-place finish in nine career starts.
After racing at Saratoga and Churchill Downs, the son of Justify finally broke his maiden in his sixth career start at Oaklawn Park in December, beating Derby rival Publisher by 1 and ½ lengths.
Lukas’ Derby entrant was unable to sustain the momentum of his first career win with consecutive disappointing finishes in the Southwest Stakes (finished 7th) and the Risen Star Stakes (5th).
American Promise closed out his 2025 campaign with an eye-popping 7 ¾ lengths victory that set the Colonial Downs track record of 1:46.41 at 1 ⅛ miles.
Welcome to Churchill Downs, AMERICAN PROMISE (Justify - Tapella, by Tapit).
— Barbara D. Livingston (@DRFLivingston) April 20, 2025
Owned by BC Stables LLC, the Wayne Lukas trainee most recently won the Virginia Derby.#KentuckyDerby pic.twitter.com/pzqR4XAbaB
American Promise Kentucky Derby Outlook
Oddsmakers currently have American Promise listed at longshot odds +2400 in Derby Futures. Lukas’ decision to skip the Lexington Stakes, opting instead for only track workouts, suggests supreme confidence in the talents of the late-emerging colt by the Hall of Fame trainer. Solid 7-furlong morning work at 1:25.20 at Oaklawn on April 18 suggests he should be fresh and ready to roll on the first Saturday of May.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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-1be8bb0e9ea1ab9f8bfbf612aa95e4bb.jpeg "Frank Taddeo")
Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.