2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Publisher
Publisher will be looking to become the first maiden since Brokers Tip in 1933 to win the Kentucky Derby.
In this installment of my Respected Money horse betting profiles, we will take a deeper look at one of only 13 maidens to compete in the Run for the Roses since 1937. The last maiden who attempted to earn his first career victory, in the prestigious Kentucky Derby, was Bodexpress, who finished 13th back in 2019.
Kentucky Derby Contenders: Publisher
POST NUMBER: 13
ODDS: 20-1
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr. / TRAINER: Steve Asmussen
RECORD: 7 starts: 0-2-3
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 100
RUNNING STYLE: Closer
CAREER EARNINGS: $407,756
This son of American Pharoah and Indian Pride is a huge longshot in search of accomplishing a feat not achieved in 92 years.
Publisher Breeding
Sire: American Pharoah, the 2025 Triple Crown champion, has not passed on his winning ways to Publisher. While offspring of American Pharoah have primarily found success on turf, the maiden has yet to cross the finish line on any surface.
Dam: Indian Pride is a daughter of 2002 Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up and third-place Preakness (G1) finisher Proud Citizen, who displayed strong ability to compete at Triple Crown distances.
Publisher Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements
Irad Ortiz Jr. is one of the best jockeys in the sport with more than $300 million in career earnings. The top rider, who is 0 for 8 in the Derby, will look to finally break through in the first of the Triple Crown aboard Publisher. His best finish came guiding Improbable (4th) back in 2019.
Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 26 career starters in the Kentucky Derby are the most of any trainer without ever earning a first-place victory. His best finishes include three second-place runners: Nehro (2011), Lookin At Lee (2017), and Epicenter (2022), as well as two third-place finishes: Curlin (2007) and Gun Runner (2016).
The Kentucky Derby saddle towels are here! 🌹
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 17, 2025
Here is Publisher stretching his legs under the Twin Spires this morning.
The last maiden to win the Kentucky Derby was Brokers Tip in 1933. 🏇🎓 pic.twitter.com/fTg8SYyuTR
Publisher Race History
Asmussen (who will also enter Tiztastic) will try to end his Derby drought (0-26) with Publisher, who has a career record of two runner-up and three 3rd-place finishes in seven career starts.
After hitting the board in four consecutive maiden races, Publisher took a major step up in class, competing in three straight stakes races.
After a sixth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) and a fourth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (Gr. 2), jockey Flavien Prat jumped aboard for the Arkansas Derby.
The jockey switch paid off as Publisher earned a career-high 100 Equibase figure with a runner-up finish behind Derby contender Sandman at a distance of one and ⅛ mile at Oaklawn Park.
🗞️ PUBLISHER (American Pharoah), runner-up in the March 29 GI Arkansas Derby, has made his way to @ChurchillDowns where he'll train up to the GI @KentuckyDerby.
— TDN (@theTDN) April 11, 2025
Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, the colt is owned by Gus King and breeder Estate of Brereton C. Jones. pic.twitter.com/FnTtQdCAYe
Publisher Kentucky Derby Outlook
Attempting to earn his first career win, at this level, has resulted in oddsmakers listing Publisher as a heavy 48-1 longshot in Derby Futures. While it is hard to comprehend any handicapping formula using the maiden on top, including him on the bottom of superfecta wagers is the likely ceiling. However, I would never endorse backing a maiden on any tickets in the Kentucky Derby—a complete toss.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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-1be8bb0e9ea1ab9f8bfbf612aa95e4bb.jpeg "Frank Taddeo")
Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.