Kentucky Derby Historic Trends: Best & Worst Post Positions
History has taught us that due to the enormous size of Kentucky Derby fields, the best horse does not often win. The all-important post-position draw plays a critical role in success due to the initial banging of horses out of the gate, potential traffic issues as well as the overall demanding 1 ¼ mile distance.
The vast historical data reveals clear trends that simply can not be ignored. Inside horses often face early / mid-pack traffic, with limited room to escape the congestion due to the field closing down towards the rail as the race proceeds.
The prevailing thought from horse handicappers is to toss the unlucky entrant who draws the dreaded rail.
Why?
The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby, breaking from Post 1 was Ferdinand in 1986. Dating back to 1987, it has proven to be nearly impossible to overcome posts 1 thru 3 as all entrants breaking from those gates are a combined 1-for-93 (1.08%).
Who was the one winner?
Last year’s 2024 longshot champion Mystik Dan ($39.22, Post 3) - the first to win from Post No. 3 since Real Quiet in 1998.
Being fortunate enough to be awarded a middle post, ranging from post No. 5 through post No.16 is the most desirable. Since 1999, horses who have broken from those gate positions have crossed the finish line first in the Run for the Roses, 62% of the time.
Notably, a more recent trend has emerged: 7 of the last 13 winners (53.8%) have started from post number 13 or higher: Mystik Dan (2024, Post 3), Mage (2023, Post 8), Rich Strike (2022, Post 20), Mandaloun (2021, Post 7), Authentic (2020, Post 15), Country House (2019, Post 18), Justify (2018, Post 7), Always Dreaming (2017, Post 5), Nyquist (2016, Post 13), American Pharoah (2015, Post 15), California Chrome (2014, Post 5), Orb (2013, Post 15), and I’ll Have Another (2012, Post 19).
Here is a deep-dive analysis on the most desirable and the most disadvantageous post positions based on total wins and in-the-money (ITM) finishes).
The Best Post Positions in the Kentucky Derby
These positions have historically found success, mainly due to the advantage of being presented with gates that finds clean trips as well as less distance to cover to reach the finish line first.
Post Position 5
Wins: 10 - 10.5% win rate, 95 starts
ITM Finishes: 22 (23.2%)
Last Winner: Always Dreaming (2017)
Recent ITM Trend: Audible (3rd, 2018) was the last competitor to hit the board, breaking from post 5.
Post Position 10
Wins: 9 (10.2% win rate, 88 starts)
ITM Finishes: 26 (29.5%) *highest of all posts
Last Winner: Giacomo (2005)
Recent ITM Trend: Paddy O’Prado (3rd, 2010) was the last competitor to hit the board, breaking from post 10.
Post Position 8
Wins: 9 (9.6% win rate, 94 starts)
ITM Finishes: 19 (20.2%)
Last Winner: Mage (2023)
Recent ITM Trend: Mage’s 2023 upset win was to the delight of those who invested in his 15-1 longshot odds.
The Worst Post Positions in the Kentucky Derby
These positions have historically been the least successful, often due to traffic issues or the disadvantage of drawing an outside post that requires the need to cover more ground in order to land in the prestigious winner’s circle.
Post Position 17
Wins: 0 (0% win rate, 45 starts) *The only position to never to produce a Derby winner
ITM Finishes: 3 (6.7%) *lowest of all posts
Last Notable Finish: Don’t Get Mad (4th, 2005)
Post Position 6
Wins: 2 - 2.1% win rate, 95 starts
ITM Finishes: 13 (13.7%)
Last Winner: Sea Hero (1993)
Highlighted Note: Has the least number of wins of the first 10 posts.
Last ITM Finish: Good Magic (2nd, 2018)
Post Position 1
Wins: 8 - 8.4% win rate, 95 starts
ITM Finishes: 18 (19.81%)
Last Winner: Ferdinand (1986)
Last ITM Finish: Lookin At Lee (second, 2017)
Post Position 9
Wins: 4 - 4.4% win rate, 91 starts
ITM Finishes: 18 (19.8%)
Last Winner: Riva Ridge (1972)
Recent ITM Trend: No winner in over five decades, with Disarm (2023, 4th) and Make Music for Me (2010, 4th) earning the best overall finishes.
Post Position 19
Wins: 1 - 3.2% win rate, 31 starts
ITM Finishes: 2 (6.5%)
Last Winner: I’ll Have Another (2012)
Recent ITM Trend: I’ll Have Another (2012) is the only horse to ever win from the post No. 19.
Post Positions: Historical Glance
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-1be8bb0e9ea1ab9f8bfbf612aa95e4bb.jpeg "Frank Taddeo")
Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.