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Kentucky Derby: Betting Profiles & Expert Analysis For All 20 Horses

A comprehensive look at all 20 horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field.
Frank Taddeo|
Jockey Javier Castellano raises his fist in celebration after he and Mage won the 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in 2023.
Jockey Javier Castellano raises his fist in celebration after he and Mage won the 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in 2023. | Matt Stone / USA TODAY NETWORK

The 151st Run for the Roses is a wide-open race filled with a plethora of talented horses that will put their talents on the line on the first Saturday in May. 

Let’s start off my Respected Money horse betting profiles for all 20 Kentucky Derby hopefuls, with a contender that is expected to be installed as the morning-line favorite. 

Journalism 

POST NUMBER: 8

JOCKEY: Umberto Rispoli  / TRAINER: Michael W. McCarthy

RECORD: 5 starts: 4-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 110

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker / Mid-Pack

CAREER EARNINGS: $638,880

This son of Curlin and Mopotism profiles as one of the top challengers to pass the finish line first next Saturday.

Journalism Breeding

Sire: Curlin has sired winners of the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, and Breeders’ Cup Classic but Journalism would be his first to enter the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle for the two-time Horse of the Year.

Dam: Mopotis is a daughter of Uncle Mo. Mopotism was the dam for 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, so the pedigree is strong.

Journalism Race History

Journalism has a career record of four wins with one show finish in five career starts. He has shown progression since his third place finish last October at Santa Anita in a six furlong sprint debut, posting four consecutive wins at three different tracks.

In mid-November Journalism broke his maiden with a win at a distance of one mile at Del Mar, chasing down Rank in the stretch with Ricardo Gonzalez aboard. He followed up his first trip to the winner’s circle with a 3 1⁄2 lengths victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December with current jockey Umberto Rispoli in the saddles.

Journalism earned his first stakes win in the San Felipe (G2) via a 1 ¾ -length victory at Santa Anita in March. 

The impressive colt capped off his undefeated 2025 campaign with a win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5, despite experiencing traffic trouble. He has displayed the ability to win by either pressing the pace or by rating mid-pack, off the speed.

He has posted a triple-digit Equibase Speed figure in each of his four wins (105-106-110-108), indicating another step forward could be on tap in the Kentucky Derby. 

Journalism Kentucky Derby Outlook

The 3-1 favorite in the current Derby Futures checks many of the boxes handicappers look for (pedigree, recent form, improving figures, solid recent workouts) when seeking out a Derby winner. The biggest challenge on tap Journalism will be how he responds to facing a large field -- since each of his last three wins came against small fields of only five entrants.

Sovereignty 

POST NUMBER: 18

JOCKEY: Manny Franco  / TRAINER: Bill Mott

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 99

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $292,200

This son of Into Mischief and Crowned profiles as a rising contender in the 151st Run for the Roses due to his extraordinary showcase of speed and closing power. 

Sovereignty Breeding

Sire: Horse racing fans know Into Mischief quite well as he has sired two of the last five Derby winners. The brilliant colt, who earned $597,080 in six career races, passed on his winning pedigree to 2020 Derby winner Authentic as well as 2021 eventual champion Mandaloun* (finished second but was later declared the winner after the disqualification of Medina Spirit due to a positive drug test). In addition to Sovereignty, Into Mischief is also the sire of this year’s Derby entrants Tappan Street and Citizen Bull.

Dam: Crown, despite being unraced, is the daughter of the brillant Bernardini who dominated in 2006 -- winning the Preakness, Jim Dandy Stakes, the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. 

Sovereignty Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

This will be jockey Manny Franco’s fifth ride in the Kentucky Derby: Far From Over (2015 - finished 20th), Spinoff (2019 - finished 18th), Tiz the Law (2020 - finished 2nd) and Zozos (2022 - finished 10th). 

Sovereignty will be trainer Bill Mott’s sixth entrant in the Kentucky Derby over the last six runnings: Country House (2019) - Won (after disqualification of Maximum Security), Tacitus (2019) - finished 3rd (moved up from 4th after disqualification), Modernist (2020) - finished 14th, Rocket Can (2023) - finished 15th and Resilience (2024) - finished 6th.

Sovereignty Race History

Sovereignty has a career record of two wins and two seconds in five career starts. After coming up short in his first two races, the talented closer broke his maiden winning the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs back in October, earning a career-best Equibase Speed figure of 99. It is important to highlight that in the late-surging victory he defeated two rivals he will face in the Derby - Tiztastic and Sandman - by a margin of five-lengths. 

He followed up his first trip to the winner’s circle with a win over expected Derby rivals River Thames and Burnham Square in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March at Gulfstream Park with jockey Junior Alvarado in the saddles.

At the end of March, Sovereignty came up short behind Tappen Street in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream with new jockey Manny Franco aboard.  

Sovereignty Kentucky Derby Outlook

Wise-guy money has quietly backed Bill Molt’s colt forcing oddsmakers to now list him as the second overall betting choice in Derby Futures at odds of 7-1. As we know, his sire Into Mischief has displayed documented, proven Derby success. Can Sovereignty make it three winners in the last six Derby’s for the leading North American sire? It will be interesting to see if his odds continue to shorten on the tote board come post-time.  

Sandman 

POST NUMBER: 17

JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz  / TRAINER: Mark Casse

RECORD: 8 starts: 3-1-2

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,254,595

This son of Tapit and Distorted Music profiles as a solid betting contender for the Run for the Roses. Sandman will certainly attract support from fans of Metallica as he is named after the heavy metal band’s 1991 hit song “Enter Sandman”. 

Sandman Breeding

Sire: Tapit has sired Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), and Essential Quality (2021) - highlighted by the prize of 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline.

Dam: Distorted Music - owned several wins in her career at distances of more than a mile - which results in no distance questions for Sandman.

Sandman Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jose Ortiz, who won the 2017 Belmont Stakes with Tapwrit and the 2022 Preakness Stakes aboard Early Voting, has yet to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby - despite eight attempts. His best Derby finishes came in 2018 aboard Good Magic (runner-up) followed by a third place finish in 2019 riding Tacitus. 

While owning wins in Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, Mark Casse will be in search of his first win in the Kentucky Derby with Sandman.

Sandman Race History

Sandman has a career record of three wins with one place and two show finishes in eight career starts. Broke his maiden in just his second start, last August with a win at a distance of 7 furlongs at Saratoga, with Dylan Davis aboard. 

After a runner-up finish in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and a third-place place finish in the Rebel stakes (G2) he put forth a career-best effort in winning the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 29. The win, which earned him a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure, was impressive beating Kentucky Derby rivals Coal Battle and Publisher.

The son of Tapit, who finished second on the final Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 129 points, has improved in every start, increasing his Equibase speed figure in each of his last five starts. 

Sandman Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers have Sandman listed at 9-1 in current Derby Futures. Horse bettors will have a keen eye on Saturday’s post-position draw, as Sandman’s late-running style could result in facing traffic issues - so he will need to draw in well. His win in the Arkansas Derby - beating several foes he will face one again on May 3 - showed that if he can get a clean trip he should be among those contenders flying late in the lane. Improving  Equibase Speed figures in each of his last five starts, results in a longshot contender who could spice up payouts should he hit the board at healthy odds.

Luxor Cafe 

POST NUMBER: 7

JOCKEY: Joao Moreira / TRAINER: Noriyuki Hori

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: n/a

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser) 

CAREER EARNINGS: $379,057

Luxor Cafe will be seeking to make history by becoming the first Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Historically, Japanese horses are 0-for-8 in the Run for the Roses.

This son of American Pharoah and Mary’s Follies profiles as a dominant Japanese performer with a strong pedigree. 

Luxor Cafe Breeding

Sire: American Pharoah, the 2025 Triple Crown champion, appears to have passed on his speed and appreciation for longer distances on to Luxor Cafe. It is important to highlight that despite his dominance on dirt surfaces, thus far offspring of American Pharoah have primarily found success on turf. 

Dam: Mary’s Follies found success primarily on turf winning the 2009 runnings of the Boiling Springs (G3) and Mrs. Revere (G2).

Luxor Cafe Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Joao Moreira will be making his Kentucky Derby debut aboard Luxor Cafe. 

Noriyuki Hori is a highly successful Japanese trainer who could be primed for global success in his first Kentucky Derby. 

Luxor Cafe Race History

Luxor Cafe has a career record of four wins and one second-place finish in six career starts in Japan.

After failing to find the winner’s circle in his first two career attempts, he broke his maiden in November, commencing his current four-race winning streak.

The biggest handicapping take-away from his 5-lengths win in the Fukuryu Stakes was his jaw-dropping finish - crushing the field with a final three-eighths in 36.51.

Luxor Cafe Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers hold Luxor Cafe in strong regard, listing him as a mid-range longshot at 12-1 in Derby Futures. The son of a horse to win the Grand Slam of racing, combined with exceptional closing speed, results in a colt who should appreciate the 1 ¼ miles. If he takes to the Churchill Downs dirt surface, Luxor Cafe could be the second Japanese horse in as many years to hit the board (Forever Young, 3rd place, 2024), based on his eye-popping victory in the Fukuryu Stakes. 

Rodriguez 

POST NUMBER: 4

JOCKEY: Mike Smith  / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 111

RUNNING STYLE: Presser (Prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $522,800

This son of Authentic and Cayala profiles as one of the contenders for the 151st Run for the Roses off his impressive win in the Wood Memorial. 

Rodriguez Breeding

Sire: Authentic needs limited introduction as horse fans remember him quite well from pulling off the gate-to-wire upset ($18.80) in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. The brilliant colt, who was dominant racing at long distances, capped off his career with a victory in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland.

Dam: Cayala’s pedigree leaves distance question marks as her only win in 12 career races was at six-furlongs. However, Authentic’s proven ability for stamina and distance is what delivers the goods from a breeding standpoint. 

Rodriguez Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

If you are looking to invest in a jockey with experience, look no further. Mike Smith owns the Kentucky Derby record for the most mounts (28) in the history of the first leg of the Triple Crown. Smith is widely known for bringing home the fourth-biggest longshot in Derby history aboard Giacomo in 2005 at odds of 50/1. In 2018, Smith pulled off the coveted Triple Crown aboard 2018 Horse of the Year Justify. 

History could once again be on the line on May 3 as Bob Baffert looks to win his seventh Kentucky Derby as a trainer. Baffert sits tied with Ben A. Jones with six trips to the winner’s circle, after wins with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018) and Authentic (2020). The Hall of Fame trainer “technically” had his seventh win in 2021 with Medina Spirit, but the horse was later disqualified due to a failed drug test.

Rodriguez Race History

Rodriguez has a career record of two wins with two seconds and one third-place finish in five career starts. Including his maiden-breaking win at Santa Anita at a distance of one mile, he has ripped off triple-digit Equibase speed figures in three of his last four races.

The emerging contender followed up his first trip to the winner’s circle with a runner-up finish to another of Baffert’s Derby horses - Citizen Bull - in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) back in February with jockey Juan Hernandez in the saddles.

One month later, after peaking his head out for the lead at the ½ mile pole, Rodriguzez finished third in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita in March behind likely Derby favorite Journalism as well as the highly regarded Barnes.  

Rodriguez capped off his three-year-old campaign with his most impressive win on his resume - a gate-to-wire win in the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 5 at Aqueduct - which earned him a career-best 111 Equibase Speed figure -- beating Grande by 3 and ½ lengths with veteran jockey Mike Smith aboard.

Rodriguez Kentucky Derby Outlook

Rodriguez earned an invitation into the Kentucky Derby with the fourth-most points (121.5), behind Burnham Square (130), Sandman (129) and Journalism (122.5). Despite winning the Wood Memorial, oddsmakers have him listed as double-digit longshot at odds of 12-1 in current Derby Futures. As we know, his sire Authentic proved the oddsmakers wrong only a few years ago in the Derby. Can his son follow in his steps? We shall soon find out as the pedigree for distance is certainly there. 

Burnham Square 

POST NUMBER: 9

JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.  / TRAINER: Ian Wilkes

RECORD: 6 starts: 3-1-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Mid-Pack / Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $977,755

This son of Liam’s Map and Linda profiles as one of the top betting contenders for the Run for the Roses.

Burnham Square Breeding

Sire: Liam’s Map has sired several graded stakes winners , however, most have found their success racing on grass as opposed to dirt.

Dam: Linda is by Scat Daddy --who was the sire of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, so the pedigree on the bottom side is there on paper.

Burnham Square Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Eclipse Award-winning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is no stranger to performing under the biggest lights. Last year, Hernandez pulled off the rare Derby-Oaks Double, guiding Thorpedo Anna to the win in the Kentucky Oaks followed by being aboard Mystik Dan in his win in the Kentucky Derby. 

Burnham Square will be trainer Ian Wilkes second starter in the first leg of the Triple Crown. The 59-year-old trainer entered McCraken, who earned an eighth-place finish in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. 

Burnham Square Race History

Burnham Square has a career record of three wins with one place and one show finish in six career starts. If you are willing to forgive his fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, you are looking at a horse with three impressive victories.

In late-December Burnham Square broke his maiden with a win at a distance of 1 1/16 mile at Gulfstream, winning by 9-lengths with Edgard Zayas aboard. He followed up his first trip to the winner’s circle with a victory over fellow Derby contender Tappan Street in the Holy Bull (G3) in February with Zayas once again in the irons. 

The emerging colt capped off his 2025 campaign with a visually impressive win in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 8, with last-to-first finish. The win, which earned him a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure, catapulted Wilkes’ prized colt to the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 130 points.

Burnham Square, who received a brilliant ride by Brian Hernandez Jr., made a sweeping five-wide move deep, beating East Avenue by a nose at the wire. 

Burnham Square Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers have Burnham Square as the seventh-overall betting choice (14-1) in the current Derby Futures. He rates behind several of the top contenders simply due to questions about distance limitations. Due to Hernandez’s rare-feat in last year’s Kentucky Oaks and Derby, we know many in the sport will invest simply on recency bias.

Grande 

POST NUMBER: 10

JOCKEY: John Velazquez  / TRAINER: Todd Pletcher

RECORD: 3 starts: 2-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 106

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $228,200

This son of Curlin and Journey Home profiles as a challenger who should relish the distance demanded in the Run for the Roses. 

Grande Breeding

Sire: Curlin has sired winners of the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, and Breeders’ Cup Classic but Grande would be his first to enter the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle for the two-time Horse of the Year. Curlin will have two chances to win this year’s Derby as he is also the sire of expected favorite Journalism.

Dam: Journey Home, a daughter of War Front, who finished among the top two in 6 of 10 career races. The talented gal held success racing in Graded stakes races at all levels - primarily on turf. 

Grande Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Veteran jockey John Velazquez has had mounts in 24 Kentucky Derby - most notably finding the winner’s circle three times aboard Animal Kingdom (2011), Always Dreaming (2017), Authentic (2020 . He also rode Medina Spirit first across the finish line in 2021 - but later lost the win after the horse was disqualified due to a medication violation. 

Despite having 62 Kentucky Derby starters in his illustrious training career Todd Pletcher has only won the prestigious race twice: Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). It is important to highlight that Velazquez and Pletcher hooked up for the Derby win with Always Dreaming.

Grande Race History

Grande has a career record of two wins and one second-place finish in three career starts..

The improving colt began his racing career in January, breaking his maiden at first-asking with a 2 and ½ length win at Gulfstream Park at a distance of one mile. 

The emerging contender followed up his first trip to the winner’s circle with another score at Gulfstream Park in February stretching out to one and ⅛ mile. 

Earlier this month, Grande earned his first triple-digit Equibase speed figure (106) for his late-driving runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct behind Derby rival Rodriguez with jockey Dylan Davis in the saddles.  

Grande Kentucky Derby Outlook

Grande, who finished 22nd on the final Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 50 points from his second-place in the Wood Memorial, earned a spot in the race after defections by contenders above him. Oddsmakers hold luck-warm feelings for Mike Repole’s entrant at odds of 17-1 in current Derby Futures. Following the news that River Thames will skip the Derby in favor of the Preakness, Grande will be Pletcher’s only chance to win the first leg of the Triple Crown for a third time. 

Citizen Bull 

POST NUMBER: 1

JOCKEY: Martin Garcia  / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 107

RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter / Presser

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,451,000

This son of Into Mischief and No Joke enters the 151st Run for the Roses with numerous distance and form questions, despite having several impressive wins on his resume. 

Citizen Bull Breeding

Sire: Horse racing fans know Into Mischief quite well as he has sired two of the last five Derby winners. The brilliant colt, who earned $597,080 in six career races, passed on his winning pedigree to 2020 Derby winner Authentic as well as 2021 eventual champion Mandaloun* (finished second but was later declared the winner after the disqualification of Medina Spirit due to a positive drug test). In addition to Citizen Bull, Into Mischief is also the sire of Sovereignty and Tappan Street.

Dam: No Joke is the unraced daughter of Distorted Humor who is best-known for siring 2003 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion Funny Cide. 

Citizen Bull Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Martin Garcia, who has ridden in the Kentucky Derby three previous times, is in search of his first win: 2010: Conveyance, (2010 - finished 15th), 2011: Midnight Interlude (2011 - finished 16th) and 2015: Dortmund (2015 - finished 3rd).

History could once again be on the line on May 3 as Bob Baffert looks to win his seventh Kentucky Derby as a trainer. Baffert, who sits tied with Ben A. Jones with six trips to the winner’s circle, after wins with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018) and Authentic (2020). The Hall of Fame trainer “technically” had his seventh win in 2021 with Medina Spirit, but the horse was later disqualified due to a failed drug test.

Citizen Bull Race History

Citizen Bull has a career record of four wins and one third-place finish in six career starts. One of Baffert’s three prized entrants broke his maiden in first asking at Del Mar last August, at a distance of 5 1/2-furlong maiden - defeating both McKinzie Street and Getaway Car. 

After a third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in September, Citizen Bull ripped off three consecutive impressive in the American Pharoah Stakes (99), Breeders' Cup Juvenile (106) and 

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (107) - which displayed improving Equibase speed figures in each triumph.

After beating fellow Baffert trained Derby rivals Rodriguez and Madaket Road in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 3 and ¾ lengths, Citizen Bull capped off his three-year-old campaign with a head-scratching 10-length defeat to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.

Citizen Bull Kentucky Derby Outlook

Citizen Bull qualified for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with the 11th-most points (71.25). Despite having several stakes wins under his belt, oddsmakers have him listed at longshot odds of 22-1 in current Derby Futures. The impressive gate-to-wire victory (16/1) in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile showed what Citizen Bull is capable of accomplishing when he gets his way on the front end. While expected to be among a handful who will challenge for the early lead, the question then becomes can he handle the distance and rebound off such a dismal performance in the Santa Anita Derby. 

American Promise 

POST NUMBER: 5

JOCKEY: Nik Juarez  / TRAINER: D. Wayne Lukas

RECORD: 9 starts: 2-1-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $444,874

This son of Justify and Tapella will look to win the 151st installment of the Run for the Roses, bucking a trend of inconsistent efforts.  

American Promise Breeding

Sire: 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who was a perfect 6-for-6 in his racing career, suggests  a colt in American Promise who should have no issue handling the 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby.

Dam: Tapella, a daughter of Tapit, displayed solid stamina in a racing career that compiled five in-the-money finishes in eight career races. Meanwhile, Tapit has sired Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), Essential Quality (2021), and 2022 Horse of the Year, Flightline.

American Promise Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Nik Juarez, who guided Actress to her Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) victory in 2017, will be making his Kentucky Derby debut aboard American Promise.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas is 4-for-51 lifetime in the Kentucky Derby: Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996), and Charismatic (1999).

American Promise Race History

American Promise has a career record of two wins, two runner-ups, and one third-place finish  in nine career starts.

After racing at Saratoga and Churchill Downs, the son of Justify finally broke his maiden in his sixth career start at Oaklawn Park in December, beating Derby rival Publisher by 1 and ½ lengths.

Lukas’ Derby entrant was unable to sustain the momentum of his first career win with consecutive disappointing finishes in the Southwest Stakes (finished 7th) and the Risen Star Stakes (5th).  

American Promise closed out his 2025 campaign with an eye-popping 7 ¾ lengths victory that set the Colonial Downs track record of 1:46.41 at 1 ⅛ miles.  

American Promise Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers currently have American Promise listed at longshot odds 24-1 in Derby Futures. Lukas’ decision to skip the Lexington Stakes, opting instead for only track workouts, suggests supreme confidence in the talents of the late-emerging colt by the Hall of Fame trainer. His solid 7-furlong morning work at 1:25.20 at Oaklawn on April 18 indicates he is heading into the Derby trending in the right direction.

Tiztastic 

POST NUMBER: 14

JOCKEY: Joel Rosario  / TRAINER: Steven Asmussen

RECORD: 8 starts: 3-1-2

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 99

RUNNING STYLE: Closer 

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,549,800

This son of Tiz the Law and Keesha profiles as a challenger who has displayed he relishes long distance route races. 

Tiztastic Breeding

Sire: Tiz the Law, who won the 2020 Belmont Stakes, finished second in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Tiztastic would be the first sire of Tiz the Law to win the Kentucky Derby.

Dam: Keesha is an unraced daughter of Tapit, who is best known for breeding links to 2023 Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish, 2023 Belmont, Travers and Peter Pan Stakes champion Arcangelo as well as 2023 Kentucky Oaks champion Pretty Mischievous.

Tiztastic Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Veteran jockey Joel Rosario has one win in 13 Kentucky Derby starts. In addition to his Derby victory aboard Orb in 2013, he earned a solid runner-up finish on Epicenter in 2022. 

Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 26 career starters in the Kentucky Derby is the most of any trainer without ever earning a first place victory. His best finishes include three second-place runners: Nehro (2011), Lookin At Lee (2017) and Epicenter (2022) as well as two third-place finishes: Curlin (2007) and Gun Runner (2016).

Tiztastic Race History

Tiztastic has a career record of three wins, one runner-up finish and two third-places finishes in eight career starts.

The well-traveled colt broke his maiden with a 1 and ¾  length win at Kentucky Downs at a distance of six-and-half furlongs on the turf. He followed that up with a second turf win (defeating Derby rival Coal Battle) in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes by a neck over West Beach. 

After earning three in the money finishes in four stakes races at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park, he finally earned his first stakes victory at the end of March. 

Tiztastic earned a career-best Equibase speed figure (99) for his from-the-clouds 2 and ¼ length win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fairgrounds --beating Derby rival Chunk of Gold with Rosario in the irons.  

Tiztastic Kentucky Derby Outlook

Tizatastic finished fifth on the final Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 119 points. Oddsmakers currently have the son of Tiz the Law listed at odds of 22-1 in current Derby Futures. Tiztastic, who has earned Equibase speed figures of 97-94-99 in his three starts in 2025, will be looking to break Asmussen’s 0-26 Derby drought. Those looking to back Tizatastic at the betting windows will likely base their investment off his best figure, coming at the longest distance of his career, last out.

Coal Battle 

POST NUMBER: 16

JOCKEY: Juan Vargas  / TRAINER: Lonnie Briley

RECORD: 8 starts: 5-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Closer / Mid-Pack

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,188,875

This son of Coal Front and Wolfblade heads into the 151st Run for the Roses as a horse who may struggle to handle the distance needed to win the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Coal Battle Breeding

Sire: Coal Front, who won 8 of 13 career races, never won a Grade 1 Stakes but collected two Grade 2 and three Grade 3 scores. 

Dam: Wolfblade, a daughter of Midshipman, found documented success as a sprinter collecting $143,465 earnings in 39 starts. Midshipman, the 2008 American Champion Two-Year-Old, was best known for winning the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) under the watchful direction of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Coal Battle Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Veteran jockey Juan Vargas, who has $12,103,043 in career earnings, will be riding in his first Kentucky Derby aboard Coal Battle.

72-year-old trainer Lonnie Briley will be making his Kentucky Derby debut.

Coal Battle Race History

Coal Battle has a career record of five wins and one third-place finish in eight career starts. The talented colt broke his maiden with a 3 and ½ length victory in his first start last July at Evangeline at a distance of five furlongs. 

After failing to hit the board in his next two starts, he found the winner’s circle in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, Remington Springboard Mile Stakes and the Smarty Jones Stakes - displaying various winning styles that ranged from a front-running score to showing off tactical speed to win from mid-pack.

Vargas, who has been aboard Coal Battle in all eight starts, guided him to a fourth straight victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn at the end of February. Defeating expected Derby rivals Sandman, Publisher, Tiztastic and Madaket Road helped him earn a career-best 104 Equibase Speed figure.  

However, his winning streak came to an end in the Arkansas Derby this time finishing behind Sandman and Publisher.

Coal Battle Kentucky Derby Outlook

After ripping off four consecutive wins, 2025 Kentucky Derby contender Coal Battle will be seeking to rebound from his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.  Due to a pedigree that doesn’t strongly suggest a horse who will be able to sustain enough stamina for the grueling 1 1/4 mile test, oddsmakers currently have him listed as a major longshot in Derby Futures at odds of 33-1. Can Coal Battle find the winner’s circle in both Juan Vargas’ and Lonnie Briley’s Kentucky debut? If you believe the answer is yes, you will be rewarded with a lucrative payout.

East Avenue 

POST NUMBER: 12

JOCKEY: Manny Franco  / TRAINER: Brendan Walsh

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter / Stalker

CAREER EARNINGS: $654,395

This son of Medaglia d’Oro and Dance Music will look to snap a three-race losing streak in the prestigious first leg of the Triple Crown.  

East Avenue Breeding

Sire: Medaglia d’Oro competed in all three legs of the Triple Crown: finishing fourth in the 2002 Kentucky Derby, 8th in the 2002 Preakness, and 2nd in the 2022 Belmont Stakes. Medaglia d’Oro has most notably sired 2009 Eclipse Horse of the Year and Preakness Stakes champion Rachel Alexandria as well as 2018 Sovereign Award Horse of the Year Wonder Gadot. 

Dam: Dance Music, is an unraced daughter of 2004 Eclipse Award Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who was dominant winning nine of 11 career races - most notably the 2004 Breeders Cup Classic (G1).

East Avenue Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Manny Franco will be in search of his first Derby win after four previous mounts in the Run for the Roses: Frammento (2015, finished 14th), Spinoff (2009, finished 18th), Tiz the Law (2020, finished 2nd), and Zozos (2020, finished 10th).

This will be trainer Brendan Walsh’s second trip to the Kentucky Derby after earning an eighth-place finish with Plus Que Parfait in 2019.

East Avenue Race History

East Avenue has a career record of two wins and one runner-up finish in five career starts.

His career commenced on a high note, breaking his maiden at first asking at a distance of six-furlongs on the dirt at Ellis Park. Following his maiden win, East Avenue remained undefeated  by winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) by 5 1/4 lengths last October in a gate-to-wire score that earned him a 97 Equibase speed figure.

The winning streak came to a crashing halt with a disappointing 9th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in November when he failed to recover after stumping at the start. 

Following a disappointing 10th-place finish in the Risen Star (G2) in February, East Avenue hit the board for the first time in 2025 losing by a nose in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) to Derby contender Burnham Square, earning a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure. 

East Avenue Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers currently have East Avenue listed outside the top-10 betting options at longshot odds +25-1in Derby Futures, considerably higher than his +1000  found in early Future Pools. East Avenue, who fired a bullet four-furlong work in :47.60, is expected to be among the pacesetters in the Kentucky Derby. However, his late fade in the Blue Grass Stakes, combined with his need for the clear lead, results in a horse that will likely go off at very high odds. 

Admire Daytona 

POST NUMBER: 6

JOCKEY: Christophe Lemaire / TRAINER: Yukihiro Kato

RECORD: 6 starts: 2-2-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: n/a

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser) 

CAREER EARNINGS: $672,047

This son of Defrong and Ice Pastel profiles as a late-developing performer with a strong pedigree for long distances. 

Admire Daytona Breeding

Sire: Drefong was an Eclipse Award winning sprinter who is most notably known for winning the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).  Drefong’s dam, Eltimaas, is a daughter of Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper - indicating distance should not be an issue.

Dam: Ice Pastel, is a daughter of 2011 Preakness (G1) Shackleford, who displayed strong ability to win on dirt at route distances.

Admire Daytona Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Christophe Lemaire will be looking for his first career in-the-money finish riding Admire Daytona. Made his Derby debut aboard Crown Pride in the 2022 Kentucky, finishing 13th. The top international rider guided Admire Daytona to his UAE Derby win at Meydan Racecourse.

Trainer Yukihiro Kato will be making his Kentucky Derby debut. 

Admire Daytona Race History

Admire Daytona has a career record of two wins and two runner-up finishes in six career starts.

Came up short in his first three career tries, finally breaking his maiden in the first race of his 2025 campaign.

After earning a runner-up finish behind Luxor Cafe in a maiden attempt as a two-year-old, he finished fourth behind the fellow Japanese standout in the Hyacinth Stakes.

Opting to avoid Luxor Cafe for a third time in the Fukuryu Stakes, his connections decided to ship to Dubai.  The move paid major dividends as the late-developing colt upset the UAE Derby (G2) field, by a nose, at odds of 10-1 odds with a front-running score.

Admire Daytona Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers hold tepid feelings for Admire Daytona’s chances in the Kentucky Derby listing him among the biggest moonshots at 39-1 in Derby Futures. History is not Admire Daytona’s side as UAE Derby winners are 0-for-19 dating back to 2000, with Master of Hounds earning the highest finish (5th) in 2011. On paper, all handicapping angles point to the son of Drefong being severely overmatched against this level of competition. 

Chunk of Gold 

POST NUMBER: 19

JOCKEY: Jareth Loveberry / TRAINER: Ethan West

RECORD: 4 starts: 1-3-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $348,818

This son of Preservationist and Play for Gold profiles as an emerging late-developing performer who owns a potentially stamina-heavy pedigree.  

Chunk of Gold Breeding

Sire: Preservationist achieved success (in the money in 9 of 11 career races) running long distances on dirt, most notably winning the 2019 Woodward Stakes (G1) and the 2019 Suburban Stakes (G2).

Dam: Play for Gold is a daughter of Cairo Prince, who is best known for winning the 2014 Holy Bull (G2). It should be noted that Cairo Prince’s sire, Pioneer of the Nile, was the 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up who later sired 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The lineage is evident.

Chunk of Gold Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

This will be jockey Jareth Loveberry’s second Derby mount after finishing second in 2023 aboard Two Phil’s.

32-year old trainer Ethan West, who competes primarily at Turfway Park, will be making his Kentucky Derby debut.

Chunk of Gold Race History

Chunk of Gold has a career record of one win with three second-place finishes in four career starts.

He broke his maiden in his racing debut at Turfway Park, showcasing his strong closing ability to win by ‘neck’ at a distance of six-furlongs. 

Following a second-place finish in the Turfway Prevue Stakes in his first race of 2025, he earned a runner-up finish behind Magnitude in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds in February - notably ahead of Derby rivals Built (3rd), American Promise (5th), and East Avenue (10th).

Chunk of Gold posted a third consecutive second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) behind Derby foe Tiztastic in March at Fair Grounds, earning a career-best 96 Equibase speed figure. 

Chunk of Gold Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers currently have Chunk of Gold listed as a longshot at 40-1 in Derby Futures. If you believe the son of Preservationist can handle the distance in the Derby then using a closer like Chunk of Gold on the bottom rung of trifecta and superfecta tickets could be a wise endeavor to add serious value to payouts. His bullet five-furlong work in :59.60 at Turfway Park on April 12, combined with his late closing style, undeniably adds betting intrigue. 

Final Gambit 

POST NUMBER: 3

JOCKEY: Luan Machado / TRAINER: Brad H. Cox

RECORD: 4 starts: 2-1-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser) 

CAREER EARNINGS: $520,639

This son of Not This Time and Pachinko profiles as an emerging late-developing performer with a strong pedigree.  

Final Gambit Breeding

Sire: Not This Time is a lightly raced horse who finished second in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Not This Time is best known for siring 2022 Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up includes Epicenter. 

Dam: Pachinko, a daughter of Tapit, who is best known for siring Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), and Essential Quality (2021) - as well as 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline.

Final Gambit Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Luan Machado will be making his Kentucky Derby debut aboard Final Gambit. 

Trainer Brad Cox is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby, fielding 11 entrants in the prestigious race since 2021. Cox, who has one Kentucky Derby win (2021 with Mandaloun, via disqualification) over that span, has two entrants this year in Tappan Street and Final Gambit.

Final Gambit Race History

Final Gambit has a career record of two wins, two runner-ups and two third-place finishes in four career starts.

After failing to find the winner’s circle in his first two career attempts, Final Gambit broke his maiden with a 2 and ¼ length win at Turfway Park in mid-February.

In late March, Final Gambit's first stakes win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) secured him a spot (100 points) in the Kentucky Derby. The late-emerging talent earned a career-best 96 Equibase speed figure from his commanding 3½-length victory over Derby rival Flying Mohawk. 

Final Gambit Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers currently have Final Gambit listed as a longshot at 37-1 in Derby Futures. My projections have Final Gambit likely among the biggest moonshots come post-time due to his unproven dirt form and limited racing experience. Many handicappers who use top betting contenders Journalism and Sovereignty, may opt to use Final Gambit underneath in exotic wagers (exactas, trifectas and superfectas) to spice up payouts -- mainly due to his strong closing style in a race that could suffer a pace meltdown.

Publisher 

POST NUMBER: 13

JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr.  / TRAINER: Steve Asmussen

RECORD: 7 starts: 0-2-3

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 100

RUNNING STYLE: Closer 

CAREER EARNINGS: $407,756

This son of American Pharoah and Indian Pride is a huge longshot in search of accomplishing a feat that has not been achieved in 92 years. 

Publisher Breeding

Sire: American Pharoah, the 2025 Triple Crown champion, has not passed on his winning ways to Publisher. While offspring of American Pharoah have primarily found success on turf, the maiden has yet to cross the finish line on any surface.

Dam: Indian Pride, is a daughter of 2002 Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up and third-place Preakness (G1) finisher Proud Citizen, who displayed strong ability to compete at Triple Crown distances.

Publisher Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Irad Ortiz Jr. is one of the best jockeys in the sport with more than $300 million career earnings. The top rider, who is 0 for 8 in the Derby, will look to finally break through in the first of the Triple Crown aboard Publisher. His best finish came guiding Improbable (4th) back in 2019.

Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 26 career starters in the Kentucky Derby is the most of any trainer without ever earning a first place victory. His best finishes include three second-place runners: Nehro (2011), Lookin At Lee (2017) and Epicenter (2022) as well as two third-place finishes: Curlin (2007) and Gun Runner (2016).

Publisher Race History

Asmussen (who will also enter Tiztastic) will try to end his Derby drought (0-26) with Publisher who has a career record of two runner-up and three 3rd-place finishes in seven career starts.

After hitting the board in four consecutive maiden races, Publisher took a major step up in class, competing in three straight stakes races.

After a sixth place finish in the Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) and a fourth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (Gr. 2), jockey Flavien Prat jumped aboard for the Arkansas Derby. 

The jockey switch paid off as Publisher earned a career-high 100 Equibase figure with a runner-up finish behind Derby contender Sandman at a distance of one and ⅛ mile at Oaklawn Park.

Publisher Kentucky Derby Outlook

Attempting to earn his first career win, at this level, has resulted in oddsmakers listing Publisher as a heavy 48-1 longshot in Derby Futures.  While it is hard to comprehend any handicapping formula using the maiden on top, including him on the bottom of superfecta wagers is the likely ceiling. However, I would never endorse backing a maiden on any tickets in the Kentucky Derby. 

Owen Almighty

POST NUMBER: 20

JOCKEY: Javier Castellano  / TRAINER: Brian A. Lynch

RECORD: 7 starts: 3-2-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 98

RUNNING STYLE: Front-Runner / Presser

This son of Speightstown and Tempers Rising will look to rebound after a disappointing 6th-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes at a distance of 1 ⅛ miles.   

Owen Almighty Breeding

Sire: Owen Almighty is a son of Speightstown, best known for his supreme speed. The 2004 Eclipse Award Champion Sprinter statement victory came via winning the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

Dam: Tempers Rising is a daughter of Bayern who won the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) as well as the 2014 Haskell (G1) under the tutelage of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.  

Owen Almighty Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Javier Castellano is 1-for-16 in Kentucky Derby mounts, with his lone trip to the winner’s circle coming aboard Mage in 2023 at odds of 15-1. 

This will be Brian Lynch’s second attempt to win the Kentucky Derby after an 11th-place finish with Classic Causeway back in 2022.

Owen Almighty Race History

Owen Almighty has a career record of three wins and two runner-up finishes in seven career starts.

Lynch’s entrant commenced his career by breaking his maiden race over the Churchill Downs dirt surface last June at a distance of 5 ½ furlongs, followed up by a victory in the Juvenile Stakes (Black Type) at a distance of seven furlongs.

The son of Speightstown was unable to remain undefeated, finishing behind Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois Stakes (Gr. 3) at Churchill at a distance of one mile. 

It had appeared that Owen Almighty had won his third race in four tries in the Pasco Stakes. However, despite crossing the finish line first, he was disqualified to fifth after the steward’s ruled interference.

After a runner-up finish behind John Hancock in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), he put forth an impressive effort winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) by 3 ½ lengths, earning a career-best 98 Equibase speed figure. 

However, the momentum of two consecutive solid races quickly evaporated after finishing far behind (6th overall) Derby rivals Burnham Square and East Avenue (who ran 1-2) in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

Owen Almighty Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers currently have Owen Almighty listed at longshot odds of 45-1 in Derby Futures. It is hard to endorse a horse when his trainer openly hints at distance limitations. Following his dismal showing in the Blue Grass, Lynch stated: “He had the perfect trip and had every chance to make it his race, but he came up a little empty when we needed it. I don’t think the Derby is the way we will go.”

I am unsure what ultimately led his connections to re-enter the Derby, but there are simply too many questions to support an investment in Owen Almighty.

Flying Mohawk 

POST NUMBER: 11

JOCKEY: Joe Ramos  / TRAINER: Whit Beckman

RECORD: 6 starts: 2-2-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 97

RUNNING STYLE: Closer 

CAREER EARNINGS: $295,800

This son of Karakontie and Bonbons Fleur profiles as a massive moonshot who likely will be among the biggest longshots on May 3. 

Flying Mohawk Breeding

Sire: Karakontie was an impressive turf horse who most notably won the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile. It should be highlighted that Karakontie sired Sole Volante, who finished 11th in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

Dam: Bonbons Fleur is a daughter of Twirling Candy, who is widely known for siring 2021 Preakness Stakes champion Rombauer.

Flying Mohawk Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Veteran jockey Joe Ramos, who has raced primarily at Horseshoe and Turfway Park, will be making his Kentucky Derby debut aboard Flying Mohawk. 

This will be Whit Beckman’s second entrant in the Kentucky Derby after training Honor Marie, who finished 8th in last year’s Run for the Roses.

Flying Mohawk Race History

Flying Mohawk has a career record of two wins and two second-place finishes in six career starts.

After coming up short in his first three tries on the turf, Flying Mohawk broke his maiden with a 5 and ½  length win at Churchill Downs at a distance of a mile and sixteenth on the turf. 

He followed that up with a second straight turf win at Fairground, with a last-to-first move, that earned a career-best 97 Equibase speed figure.

In his final 2025 prep, Flying Mohawk earned a runner-up finish behind Derby rival Final Gambit on synthetic in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.

Flying Mohawk Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers currently have Whit Beckman’s entrant listed as the biggest longshot in the field at 65-1 in Derby Futures. It is hard to endorse a colt who will be making his dirt debut in the Kentucky Derby. Flying Mohawk will likely be tossed by all sharp handicappers, since on paper, he appears widely overmatched against this field. 

Neoequos 

POST NUMBER: 2

JOCKEY: Flavien Prat  / TRAINER: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

RECORD: 7 starts: 2-2-2

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 100

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $291,050

This son of Neolithic and Bold Birdie who owns a sprint-heavy pedigree, has shown an inability to finish strong in previous two-turn races, leading to distance limitation questions. 

Neoequos Breeding

Sire: Neolithic earned $2,278,028 in his career, despite never winning a stakes race. The son of Harlan’s Holiday finished second in the 2017 Discovery Stakes (Gr. 3), third in the 2017 Pegasus World Cup (G1), third in the 2017 Woodward Stakes (G1), third in the 2017 Dubai World Cup (G1), and second in the 2017 Hagyard Fayette Stakes (Gr. 2). 

Dam: Bold Birdie is a daughter of Birdstone, a talented colt who is best known for winning the 2004 Belmont Stakes (G1) and the 2004 Travers Stakes (G1). Birdstone sired 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird. 

Neoequos Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Flavien Prat has one Kentucky Derby victory in 8 career mounts - winning the 2019 Kentucky Derby aboard Country House, via disqualification of Maximum Security. Other notable results include: Battle of Midway (2017, 3rd), Hot Rod Charlie (2021, 2nd), Zandon (2022, 3rd), Angel of Empire (2023, 3rd), and Catching Freedom (2024, 4th).

This will mark trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s second appearance in the first leg of the Triple Crown. The 38-year-old trainer previously sent out seventh-place finisher White Abarrio in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. 

Neoequos Race History

Neoequos has a career record of two wins, two seconds, and two third-place finishes in seven career starts.

After breaking his maiden at five furlongs on the dirt at Gulfstream Park, he earned two solid runner-up finishes in consecutive Florida Stallion Series stakes races as a two-year-old. 

Following an allowance win at five furlongs to start off his 2025 campaign, he earned Derby  qualifying points but faded in his most recents starts.

Neoequos finished third behind Derby contender Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his first attempt around two turns, only to finish third behind both Tappan Street and Sovereignty in the Florida Derby (G1) after leading at the top of the stretch. 

Neoequos Kentucky Derby Outlook

After entering the field on Friday, oddsmakers installed Neoequost at moonshot odds of 60-1 in Derby Futures. Despite his in-the-money finish in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, Neoequos’ late fading results in potential distance limitations. However, his bullet four-furlong work in :48.43 on April 24, at Gulfstream Park, has his connections believing the colt’s tactical speed and recent form make him a candidate to upset the 20-horse field.

Render Judgment 

POST NUMBER: 15

JOCKEY: Julien Leparoux  / TRAINER: Kenneth McPeek

RECORD: 7 starts: 1-2-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 98

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $250,672

This son of Blame and Barbara Gordon is a colt whose pedigree suggests solid stamina, but appears to be overmatched on paper against this field, mainly due to his lack of Grade 1 stakes wins racing on dirt surfaces. 

Render Judgment Breeding

Sire: Blame enjoyed a sensational career, winning 9 of 13 career races, most notably the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic. The son of Arch displayed strong stamina, which could translate to Render Judgment’s chances of handling the 1 ¼ mile distance in the Kentucky Derby. 

Dam: Barbara Gordon is the daughter of Commissioner, a talented colt who is best known for running second in the 2014 Belmont Stakes (G1). 

Render Judgment Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Julien Leparoux is 0-14 in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to finish in the top 3, with his best finish coming in 4th aboard Classic Empire in 2017.

Ken McPeek, who has saddled 11 horses in the Kentucky Derby, will look to earn consecutive victories after sending out last year’s champion Mystik Dan. 

Render Judgment Race History

Render Judgment has a career record of one win, two seconds, and one third-place finish in seven career starts.

After breaking his maiden at one mile and 1/16 on the dirt at Churchill Downs, he has failed to cross the wire first in five consecutive races. 

In mid-March, he earned a runner-up finish behind Derby rival American Promise in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. 

Render Judgment finished up his 2025 campaign with a fifth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) behind Derby rivals Burnham Square and East Avenue. 

Render Judgment Kentucky Derby Outlook

After drawing into the field a few hours prior to the Post-Position Draw, oddsmakers installed Render Judgment at moonshot odds of 69-1 in Derby Futures. On Saturday, Render Judgment posted a bullet five-furlong work in 59.03 seconds. Despite the solid work as well as a pedigree that suggests the demanding distance will not be an issue, Ken McPeek’s colt will likely be among the highest-priced horses on May 3.

Baeza 

POST NUMBER: No. 21

JOCKEY: Flavien Prat  / TRAINER: John A. Shirreffs

RECORD: 4 starts: 1-2-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 107

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker

CAREER EARNINGS: $148,500

This son of McKinzie and Puca profiles as an intriguing last-minute addition to a talented 2025 Kentucky Derby field of 20.  

Baeza Breeding

Sire: McKinzie was a solid runner who won four Grade 1 races, most notably winning the 2019 Whitney Stakes (G1) and the 2019 Alysheba Stakes (G2). The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense also earned a solid runner-up finish in the 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr. 1). 

Dam: Puca is a daughter of Big Brown who does not need much introduction. The 2008 Eclipse Award winner won the 2008 Kentucky Derby, the 2008 Preakness (G1), as well as the 2008 Haskell Invitational Stakes (Gr. 1).

Baeza Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

This will be jockey Flavien Prat’s 10th Derby mount after most-notably finishing first in 2019 aboard Country House (via Maximum Security’s disqualification). Prat has posted four additional in-the-money finishes since 2017: Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, 2021), Battle of Midway (3rd, 2017), Zandon, (3rd, 2022), and Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023).

Veteran trainer John A. Shirreffs will be entering his fifth horse in the Kentucky Derby. Shirreffs lone win came back in 2005 with longshot Giacomo (50-1).

Baeza Race History

Baeza has a career record of one win with two second-place finishes in four career starts.

The young colt has progressed in each of his starts, finally breaking his maiden in his third start at Santa Anita Park by 4 ¾ lengths at a distance of one-mile maiden on the dirt. 

Following his first trip to the winners circle, he earned a runner-up finish behind Derby favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). On that day he gave Journalism all he could handle, taking the lead in the stretch, before coming up short by ¾ of a length.

Baeza has steadily improved his Equibase Speed figures in each of his four starts (82-94-104-107).

Baeza Derby Outlook

In early wagering, Baeza is currently being offered at odds of 29-1 after opening at 12-1 late Thursday. The half brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch will likely be the wise-guy horse of this year’s Kentucky Derby after drawing in from the AE list. The addition of top jockey Flavien Prat in the saddles, makes Baeza a serious contender to hit the board at double-digit odds on Saturday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More Horse Racing News:

2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Moonshots Per Futures' Odds

2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Longshots By The Odds

By The Odds: 2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Contenders

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Frank Taddeo
FRANK TADDEO

Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.

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