Horse Racing On SI

By the Odds: 2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Contenders

A deep dive into the top betting contenders for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, led by favorite Journalism and a field of rising stars aiming to make history at Churchill Downs.
Frank Taddeo|
Journalism Wins the 2025 Santa Anita Derby
Journalism Wins the 2025 Santa Anita Derby | Benoit Photo

Ahead of Saturday’s 2025 Kentucky Derby post-position draw, OnSI Horse Racing takes a look at the top betting choices in the Futures’ market. 

We start off our breakdown with the colt everyone expects will be named the morning-line favorite for the 151st Run for the Roses.

Journalism  +350

JOCKEY: Umberto Rispoli  / TRAINER: Michael McCarthy

RECORD: 5 starts: 4-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 110

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker / Mid-Pack

CAREER EARNINGS: $638,880

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Journalism

Fresh off his undefeated 2025 campaign that concluded with a win in the Santa Anita Derby, combined with his solid morning works, it is obvious why Journalism is the clear favorite to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. Michael McCarthy’s prized colt has posted a triple-digit Equibase Speed figure in each of his four wins (105-106-110-108).

The +350 favorite checks many of the boxes handicappers look for (pedigree, recent form, improving figures, solid recent workouts) when seeking out a Derby winner. Journalism's current odds are a far cry from his November Pool 2 Futures odds of 99/1. 

Sovereignty +750

JOCKEY: Manny Franco  / TRAINER: Bill Mott

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 99

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $292,200

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Sovereignty

Sovereignty’s showcase of speed and closing power was evident in wins over Derby rivals Tiztastic and Sandman in the Street Sense Stakes as well as Burnham Square in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Wise-guy money continues to support Bill Molt’s colt resulting in the second shortest betting odds in Derby Futures. Those holding tickets from October’s Pool 1 Derby Futures, at odds of 25-1, own immense value on the talented son of Into Mischief.

Rodriguez +1100

JOCKEY: Mike Smith  / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 111

RUNNING STYLE: Presser (Prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $522,800

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Rodriguez

If you are looking to invest in a jockey-trainer with proven experience, look no further than Rodriguez. Jockey Mike Smith owns the Kentucky Derby record for the most mounts (28) in the history of the first leg of the Triple Crown, while Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is tied with Ben A. Jones for most Derby wins (6).  

Rodriguez capped off his three-year-old campaign with an impressive gate-to-wire win in the Wood Memorial. The son of Authentic who was added to Pool 3 Futures in January, closed at odds of 22-1. Despite those odds being sliced in half, horse bettors still find attractive double-digit odds on the third overall betting choice in current Derby Futures.

Sandman +1200

JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz  / TRAINER: Mark Casse

RECORD: 8 starts: 3-1-2

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,254,595

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Sandman 

Those holding Pool 1 Futures investments at opening odds of 90-1 will be hoping the son of Tapit named after Metallica's 1991 hit song “Enter Sandman” can “enter the winner’s circle” on May 3. 

If Sandman can repeat his career-best effort put forth in winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), beating Kentucky Derby rivals Coal Battle and Publisher, then he should be among the top closers picking off tiring horses as they turn for home. 

Improving Equibase Speed figures in each of his last five starts, has Mark Casse’s entrant sitting as the fourth-overall betting choice in Kentucky Derby Futures’ odds.

Burnham Square +1300

JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.  / TRAINER: Ian Wilkes

RECORD: 6 starts: 3-1-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $977,755

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Burnham Square

Brian Hernandez Jr., who won the 2024 Kentucky Oaks with Thorpedo Anna and the 2024 Kentucky Derby aboard Mystik Dan, will look to deliver trainer Ian Wilkes his first Derby victory. 

Burnham Square’s win over fellow Derby contender Tappan Street in the Holy Bull, as well as his visually impressive last-to-first finish victory over East Avenue by a nose in the Blue Grass Stakes has gained the respect of oddsmakers. The fifth overall betting option is nearly half of his 22-1 opening odds in February’s Pool 4 Futures.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More Horse Racing News:

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Publisher

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Journalism

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Burnham Square

Published | Modified
Frank Taddeo
FRANK TADDEO

Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.

Home/Kentucky Derby