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Can Zverev, Rublev, or Ruud Break Through at Roland Garros?

The 2026 French Open could be the best chance for three top-20 mainstays to win a Grand Slam.
Van Sias|
Alexander Zverev has a clear path to the final in Paris.
Alexander Zverev has a clear path to the final in Paris. | IMAGO / PsnewZ

It’s a rare event in Paris, where a player’s absence on the men’s side opens up the possibilities for longtime contenders to finally break through on the terre battue.

Two of the most notable occasions in the Open Era would have to be three-time champion Ivan Lendl skipping the French Open in 1990 to focus on Wimbledon, and Rafael Nadal seeing his already historic charge halted in 2009—which had a significant impact on the title-winning runs of Andres Gomez and Roger Federer, respectively.

Alexander Zverev

This year, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is out. That led to Alexander Zverev taking over the second-seeded position. The German’s 2026 campaign has gotten off to a good start, with a straight-sets win over Benjamin Bonzi on the first day of play.

On paper, this could be one of his best chances to reach a major final for the fourth time in his career and bring him closer to the one prize he covets the most, a Grand Slam title. However, he does have some competition among his peers looking to break through from the bottom half of the draw and finally get over the hump.

Casper Ruud

Two-time French Open finalist Casper Ruud enters Paris this year with some momentum on his side. The 15th-seeded Norwegian is coming off a runner-up finish in Rome and a semifinal appearance only a few days ago in Geneva. The former world No. 2 was arguably one of the three best clay-courters in the world for a time. He will play Roman Safiullin in the first round.

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev is the 11th seed and has been a top-15 mainstay for years now. Rublev reached the final in Barcelona and the quarters in Rome during the clay-court lead-ups to Paris. He has famously never advanced to a Slam semi despite his accomplishments.

The Russian could be hard-pressed to find a better opportunity to break through than this year, even though he faces one of the trickiest opening-round opponents in the tournament, Ignacio Buse, who’s fresh off his first career title in Hamburg.

Sinner and Djokovic Loom Large

The general consensus is that world No. 1 Jannik Sinner will represent the top half of the draw in the championship match in two weeks. But could his historic run through the Masters 1000 tournaments this year catch up with him, leaving him vulnerable in the last stage of arguably the toughest major of them all?

And lurking in the bottom half of the draw, too, is the third seed, Novak Djokovic, who, despite playing sparingly this year, is still a threat at a Slam, as demonstrated most recently by his Australian Open finals run at the start of the season.

Tough opponents, absent contenders, experienced champions—and the prospects of facing each other: Those are several of the main challenges that Zverev, Ruud, and Rublev are up against in Paris this year.

On the other side of that, though, lies opportunity, and whoever grabs it can finally find themselves among the true greats of the game with one of the grandest prizes of them all.

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Van Sias
VAN SIAS

Van Sias has covered the professional game for more than a decade. His work has appeared at TENNIS.com, Rolling Stone, The Atlantic, The New York Times and Racquet, among others, and he’s been a featured guest on NPR programs discussing topics ranging from the US Open to the impact of Serena Williams’ retirement. Tennis has long been a part of Van’s life, from playing as a junior in Alabama to currently captaining USTA teams in New York. You can reach him at siasorama@gmail.com.

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