Novak Djokovic’s Path to the 2026 US Open Final Round by Round

Novak Djokovic arrives at Flushing Meadows as the No. 4 seed, chasing the one number that still eludes him: a record 25th Grand Slam singles title.

At 39, the four-time US Open champion has spent more than two years stuck on 24, and 2026 has followed the same pattern. Djokovic finished runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open, lost in the semifinals to Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon, and had a heat-related scare in Cincinnati that ended his week early.

But the draw has cracked open. With Sinner withdrawing with a knee injury and Alcaraz returning from four months off the tour with a wrist problem, few players in New York carry more big-match certainty than Djokovic. His section sits near the top of a bracket already reshaped by a run of late withdrawals and shifting storylines. Here’s the road in front of him, round by round.

Draw Announcement Reactions

Take a look at Djokovic's and Alcaraz's quarters 👀 pic.twitter.com/PHKRQwa3ST
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 27, 2026

When the bracket landed, reactions were immediate. The official US Open account posted the graphic with the caption, “Take a look at Djokovic’s and Alcaraz’s quarters,” and fans quickly zeroed in on the Serbian’s kind opening stretch. On paper at least, the top half of Djokovic’s section has handed him room to build.

First Round: Mariano Navone

Djokovic opens against Argentina’s Mariano Navone, a clay-court grinder far more comfortable on dirt than on a fast New York hard court. It’s a first career meeting, but the stylistic gap heavily favors Djokovic. It should make for a clean start to shake off the Cincinnati disappointment.

Second Round: A Wawrinka Reunion?

The projected second-round matchup is the draw’s early gift: Stan Wawrinka, playing what could be the final Grand Slam of his career on a last-minute wild card. Djokovic leads their storied rivalry 23-6, but the sentiment would be unmistakable. Matteo Berrettini, whose serve-forehand combination can shorten points in a hurry, is the bigger threat if he advances instead.

Third Round: Etcheverry Looms

A likely third-round test comes against 12th seed Tomás Martín Etcheverry, another big-hitting Argentine. Djokovic owns their head-to-head, and his return game remains the great equalizer against players who live and die by first-strike tennis.

Round of 16: Brandon Nakashima

This is where the draw sharpens. Projected fourth-round opponent Brandon Nakashima, the 17th seed, is a clean, consistent American with home-crowd support and no fear of long rallies, arguably the toughest early hurdle on Djokovic's side.

Quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev

A quarterfinal against seventh-seeded Daniil Medvedev would revive one of the era’s defining rivalries, including the 2023 final Djokovic won in New York. Medvedev’s flat, deep game and elastic defense have troubled Djokovic before, and a night session on Ashe would test both his legs and his patience.

Semifinal: The Alcaraz Collision

If the seeds hold, the semifinal is the one everyone circled: Carlos Alcaraz, the defending US Open champion. The Spaniard announced his return to New York after more than four months away, and he beat Djokovic in the Australian Open final in January before completing the career Grand Slam. Match sharpness after his layoff is the question, and few players punish rust like Djokovic.

US Open Final

Djokovic’s path to the US Open final is navigable. The wild card, as ever now, is his body, alongside New York’s heat. If he stays fit, there may be no one in the field better built for a seven-match grind, and a 25th major waiting at the end of it.

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