The Earliest Arsenal or Man City Can Win the Premier League
Earlier this campaign, Mikel Arteta predicted that any team hoping to win the Premier League would have to acquire “over 90 points.”
That forewarning has fallen flat. Neither Arsenal nor Manchester City can amass more than 85 points. Howevere, there is the very real scenario in which they both end the campaign on that same understated tally.
That is working on the assumption that both sides embark upon winning gluts that have thus far evaded them this season—which explains why Arteta’s lofty prediction has not come to pass. Ahead of a run-in which promises plenty more twists and turns, here’s how and when the title could yet be decided.
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The Earliest Date Arsenal Could Win the 2025–26 Premier League Title
It may seem inconceivable in the bitter aftertaste of their defeat at the Etihad, but Arsenal still have the title in their hands. There is even a scenario where the Gunners could be celebrating victory as early as the midweek of May 13.
For Arteta’s side to end the club’s 22-year trophy drought with two games of the campaign to spare, they would need to collect maximum points in a pair of London derbies against Fulham and West Ham United.
Manchester City would have take no more than one point from their next three matches to maintain this admittedly unlikely scenario. The Cityzens travel to Everton’s new ground on Monday, May 4 before hosting Brentford five days later.
Pep Guardiola’s are then in Premier League action on the midweek of Wednesday, May 13, although it hasn’t been announced who they will be playing—it will either be a visit from Crystal Palace or Andoni Iraola’s last home game as Bournemouth manager. That, yet-to-be-determined date, could serve as Arsenal’s coronation.
Arsenal’s Earliest Coronation
Date | Fixture | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
May 2 | Arsenal vs. Fulham | Arsenal win |
May 4 | Everton vs. Man City | Man City loss |
May 9 | Man City vs. Brentford | Man City loss |
May 10 | West Ham vs. Arsenal | Arsenal win |
Midweek May 13 | Man City vs. Crystal Palace/Bournemouth vs. Man City | Man City don’t win |
The Earliest Date Man City Could Win the 2025–26 Premier League Title
There is the devilish prospect of Manchester City winning the FA Cup and Premier League title on the same weekend.
Should Guardiola’s side win their next three league fixtures in the buildup to the Wembley showpiece against Chelsea, while Arsenal lose to Fulham and West Ham, the spotlight will fall on the weekend of May 16. City take on the Blues for the FA Cup on the Saturday, one day before Arsenal host already relegated Burnley, knowing that failure to collect maximum points will see them squander the title.
Man City's Earliest Coronation
Date | Fixture | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
May 2 | Arsenal vs. Fulham | Arsenal loss |
May 4 | Everton vs. Man City | Man City win |
May 9 | Man City vs. Brentford | Man City win |
May 10 | West Ham vs. Arsenal | Arsenal loss |
Midweek May 13 | Man City vs. Crystal Palace/Bournemouth vs. Man City | Man City win |
May 17* | Arsenal vs. Burnley | Arsenal don’t win |
* Exact time and date to be confirmed.
How the Premier League Title Race Can Come Down to the Final Day
There is the very real possibility that Arsenal and Manchester City are not only still battling for the title come Sunday, May 24, but they may even be on the same points tally.
If the division’s top two win their remaining matches, they will both be locked on 82 points with just 90 minutes of soccer left to play. Given how close both teams are in terms of goal difference and goals scored, there is even the chance that the rarely spotted tiebreaker of head-to-head records gets dusted off and used. In that scenario, City would be crowned champions, as they got the better of Arsenal at the Etihad after drawing in north London back in the autumn.
Arsenal have the more straightforward fixture list (on paper at least), but both sides would expect to beat their final-day opponents.
While the Gunners travel to Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park, City host Aston Villa. Arteta’s side have already beaten their London rivals twice, knocking the Eagles out of the Carabao Cup quarterfinals after Eberechi Eze scored the only goal against his former employers at the Emirates.
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal
Stat | Arsenal Result |
|---|---|
Reverse Fixture Result | 1–0 win |
Record Over Last Five Games | W4 D1 L0 |
Record at Venue Over Last Five Games | W4 D0 L1 |
City were defeated by Villa when the pair faced off in October; Matty Cash decided the game with a well-struck effort after a corner routine. City found themselves fifth in the table at that point in the season, trailing Arsenal as well as Bournemouth, Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland. Fast forward six months and a win against the same opponents could cement one of Guardiola’s most dramatic title triumphs.
The Catalan coach has history on his side. City have won their last 15 Premier League matches at the Etihad against Aston Villa, a run stretching back to April 2007 when Stuart Pearce’s Cityzens were beaten by a set of visitors spearheaded by Ashley Young and Gabby Agbonlahor.
Man City vs. Aston Villa
Stat | Man City Result |
|---|---|
Reverse Fixture Result | 1–0 loss |
Record Over Last Five Games | W2 D0 L3 |
Record at Venue Over Last Five Games | W5 D0 L0 |
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