It's Too Early for the Mercury to Panic

The Mercury are down 2-0 to the Aces, but there's plenty of basketball left to be played.

Oct 3, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) shoots against Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) during the fourth quarter of game one of the 2025 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

On Sunday night, the Phoenix Mercury fell to the Las Vegas Aces, 91-78, in a game that wasn't as close as the final score suggested. Backups took to the floor and closed the gap a bit in garbage time but the Aces blew the game open early in the second half and never looked back. The Mercury are now down 2-0 in the series, but it's not a lost cause.

If they can take care of business in Phoenix, they can tie it up at two games apiece. Though their play has been a bit uneven, particularly on defense, where they haven't been as effective as usual, there's still cause for optimism for the Mercury.

Game 2 Struggles

Oct 5, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; The Phoenix Mercury huddle prior to the start of the fourth quarter of game two of the 2025 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

They were just a couple of plays away from stealing Game 1 on the road and their offense clicked in the first and third quarters (27 and 24 points, respectively) in Game 2. Though they've struggled a bit when Vegas has switched to zone defense and they've been caught in stagnant play for stretches on that end, there have been positive signs on that end, like Kahleah Copper scoring an efficient 44 points over the two games and some key buckets from Satou Sabally in the first game.

"We just didn't share the ball as much," said Sabally post-game. "We have to play together and just zip the ball a little more, play side-to-side."

Oct 5, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) and Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) fight for the ball during the fourth quarter of game two of the 2025 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The Merc are also unlikely to shoot under 18% from three, like they did in Game 2, again. The Aces' defense deserves some credit, but shooting that poorly is a bit of an anomaly and Phoenix simply has too many quality shooters to consistently miss that many shots.

Phoenix always has at least three capable outside shooters on the floor, and sometimes four or five, but only two players on the entire team hit a three-pointer in Game 2. Even on an off night, that's incredibly rare for a team with this much talent.

Oct 5, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally (0) dribbles the ball against the Las Vegas Aces during the second quarter of game two of the 2025 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

Surprisingly, defense has been the main issue. In both games in this series, Phoenix has given up more points than they did in any game in the first two rounds. The Aces have seemingly had an answer for everything the Mercury have thrown at them so far, but they've also knocked down a lot of semi-contested looks on the move, which is less likely to happen in away games.

In Game 1, two different players (Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd) had 18 or more off the bench on better than 50% shooting. In Game 2, the bench production was much closer to their season averages, but Jackie Young was absolutely on fire. Those kinds of shooting performances will be much harder to replicate amidst the raucous atmosphere provided by the X-Factor.

Oct 5, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Monique Akoa Makani (8) shoots from the free throw line against the Las Vegas Aces during the first quarter of game two of the 2025 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The rotation could change a bit as the series wears on. All of Phoenix's main rotation players had a negative plus-minus in Game 2, except for Natasha Mack. After A'ja Wilson got Alyssa Thomas in foul trouble early, putting Mack on her more often could free Thomas up to play as more of an off-ball helper on D.

"We've got to get back to us, be more connected defensively, and then trust that the next person has your back," said Copper, who added that she is "super excited" to be getting back to Phoenix.

Though this is the biggest series deficit they've faced in this postseason, the team still has plenty of fight left and a chance to turn this series around in a must-win Game 3 back in Phoenix.

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