Mercury vs Aces WNBA Finals Preview

Can the Mercury win their first WNBA championship since 2014?

Aug 21, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally (0) shoots against Las Vegas Aces guard Jackie Young (0) in the first quarter of their game at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images / Candice Ward-Imagn Images

The Phoenix Mercury are at the end of an absolute gauntlet of a playoff run. First, they eliminated the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx, last season's two finalists. Now, they're facing MVP A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces, winners of two of the last three WNBA championships. The two desert-dwelling rivals should make for a great matchup.

For the first time in league history, the Finals will be played as a best-of-seven series, and this one has the potential to go to seven. As the Aces look to win their third in four years, establishing themselves as a dynasty, and the Mercury seek their first title in 11 years, every little edge, every minor adjustment will matter.

The Aces look and feel like a completely different team than they did early in the season. For a while, there was a genuine risk of them missing the playoffs entirely, but a sudden 16-game surge (incredibly, on the heels of a receiving a 111-58 whooping from the Lynx) to close out the regular season vaulted them all the way to the two-seed. That streak included two wins over the Mercury, one of which was a blowout. In the playoffs, they've dispatched both the Seattle Storm (in three games) and the Indiana Fever (in five) but they've looked a bit more vulnerable in the postseason than they did during their hot streak.

Let's take a look at how the two squads match up.

Sep 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) celebrates a basket in the second half during game four against the Indiana Fever of the second round for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Current form

The Aces beat the Mercury in three of four matchups this season, with the teams splitting the two before the Mercury's starting lineup change and the Aces winning both in the back half of the season. Phoenix is playing better ball than they were during those losses, though, and the Aces have cooled off a bit.

Vegas got pushed harder by a depleted Fever team than most expected, with the series ending in a dramatic Game 5 that went to overtime despite Indiana losing their best player earlier in that game. The Aces may have home-court advantage, but Phoenix will be heading into Game 1 with two more days of rest than the hosts, which could give them an opportunity to steal an early win on the road.

Aug 15, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper (2) drives by Las Vegas Aces guard Jackie Young (0) in the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The stars

Every Aces opponent is confronted with a dilemma: how do you stop A'ja Wilson? Phoenix has the choice of either letting Alyssa Thomas or Natasha Mack player her straight-up and knowing that, while Wilson may go for 30, they can focus on shutting down her opponents. Or they can help and double-team aggressively and risk the Aces' supporting cast going off. Vegas is too good for any one approach to work for an entire series. Phoenix's ability to switch between the two and keep the Aces guessing will be key in keeping the four-time MVP from dominating.

And they'll need to throw everything at her to slow her down. Wilson led the league in scoring this year (23.4 points per game), finished second in rebounding (10.2), and even led the league in blocks (2.3) en route to shared co-Defensive Player of the Year honors. She'll need to be accounted for at all times on both ends of the floor.

Jackie Young is an excellent second scoring option (averaging over 20 points in the playoffs so far), equally capable of getting hot from beyond the arc and providing additional playmaking. While Chelsea Gray, the steady veteran who always seems to play well against Phoenix, is the primary ballhandler, Young averaged 5.1 assists per game this year, giving the Vegas offense another dimension. I would expect Monique Akoa Makani and Kahleah Copper to both spend time defending her.

Aug 15, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Las Vegas Aces guard Jewell Loyd (24) drives on Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper (2) in the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The role players

NaLyssa Smith's midseason acquisition was a game-changer that brought balance to Vegas's lineup. She's Wilson's partner in the starting frontcourt and, while not a high-volume scorer, she's super efficient with her touches. She's knocked down a 62% of her field goal attempts this postseason. Off the bench, Jewell Loyd is a multi-time All-Star who hasn't quite been her usual self in Las Vegas this season, but she's still a player who scored 24.7 points a night just two seasons ago. She's scoring just 7.3 points per game in the playoffs at the moment, but she's still shooting well from three and she has the talent to change a game in an instant.

Aug 21, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) fouls Las Vegas Aces forward NaLyssa Smith (3) in the third quarter of their game at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images / Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Offense

While their season stats look pretty pedestrian, the Aces were clicking on offense over the last 15 games of the regular season. They led the league in assists per game and field goal percentage, put up the second-best three-point percentage, and committed the second-fewest turnovers. They were first in the W in offensive efficiency by a significant margin and looked unstoppable at times.

Effiicient as they are, the Mercury are an elite defensive team and they've been excellent on that end in the playoffs. They also won't have to worry too much about the transition game, as the Aces play at a relatively slow pace. The Aces don't crash the offensive glass a ton either, which should help a Mercury team that thrives on getting out in transition and pushing the tempo. Still, there's no better player in the halfcourt than Wilson and that lack of pace and extra opportunities hasn't exactly been an impediment for their success on that end. Phoenix will have their work cut out for them.

Sep 23, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) blocks Indiana Fever forward Natasha Howard (6) during the first quarter in game two of the second round for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

Defense

The Aces also improved dramatically on defense as the season went on. They posted the second-best defensive efficiency in the league over their last 15 games and they held opponents to just 26.3% shooting from three. While they're very good at defending the three-point line, some of that is unsustainable -- that would be the lowest percentage in the league by a country mile over a full season -- and attributable to a small sample size. Their opponents have actually hit 36.7% of their threes in the playoffs thus far, suggesting that Phoenix can get it going from deep in this series.

Vegas is also a middle-of-the-pack defensive rebounding team. The Mercury put tons of stress on the Liberty and Lynx by crashing the offensive glass and they should be expected to do the same here. While Wilson's an excellent rebounder, the team is a bit undersized, and Phoenix has multiple players who can extend possessions.

Aug 15, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) drives on Las Vegas Aces forward NaLyssa Smith (3) in the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Prediction

I thought I was going out on a bit of a limb when I picked the Mercury to beat the Liberty in three, then they went and did it. Then I thought I was doing a bit of wishful thinking when I picked them to beat the Lynx in five. Then they went and did it in four. So, I'll be sticking with the Merc again here. They're playing their best ball right now and I'm predicting a fourth championship in Phoenix. Mercury in six.

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