Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Buccaneers vs. Lions on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 7)

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Detroit Lions matchup on Monday night.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is a great prop target in Week 7. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions are both contenders for the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season, and they’ll play a crucial matchup in primetime on Monday night.

Tampa Bay is set as a road underdog in this matchup, although it is 5-1 this season and 4-2 against the spread. Baker Mayfield has emerged as a leading candidate to win the league’s MVP award, as the Bucs have been a top-10 offense in EPA/Play even though Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and others have missed time.

The Lions had a four-game winning streak snapped in Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are also 4-2 against the spread heading into this Monday night matchup. 

Detroit would love to knock off the Bucs at home, as it would not only give them a leg up in the NFC standings overall, but the Lions have an interesting chasing pack around them in the NFC North.

This game features two elite offenses, so bettors are certainly going to want to dabble in the prop market on Monday.

The SI Betting team has you covered with props, anytime touchdown scorer picks and game picks for this showdown in Week 7. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions Buccaneers vs. Lions

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan
• Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (-120) – Peter Dewey
• Baker Mayfield OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey
• Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+140) – Peter Dewey

Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game in the NFL season – and he’s not buying the 5-1 Bucs with all the injuries they have at the moment: 

I've correctly predicted the Eagles as a team that was going to take a step back, and they've since lost two straight games, and now I'm eyeing the Buccaneers as the next team to regress. Their numbers don't match up with their 5-1 record. They're just 13th in the league in DVOA and 11th in Net Yards per Play. Those numbers point to some significant regression coming for them in the coming weeks.

Stylistically, this is an elite matchup for the Lions. Detroit ranks fifth in the NFL in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate, and now they get to face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 21st in opponent dropback EPA, 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and 24th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.0 yards per throw.

Despite the loss on Sunday night last week, I'll back the Lions to win and cover in this spot.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (-120) – Peter Dewey

There are only two players that have been targeted in the red zone at least 12 times this season, and St. Brown is one of them, making him a great target in this market: 

Lions star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown has found the end zone six times in six games this season, although all of those scores came in a three-week span.

He’ll look to get back on track on Monday against a Tampa Bay defense that is 18th in the NFL in EPA/Pass and has given up 10 scores through the air.

St. Brown is the No. 1 option in this passing game, especially in the red zone. He’s been targeted by Jared Goff and company an NFL-high 12 times in the red zone this season, reeling in 10 of those passes for 59 yards and six scores.

He’s a must bet in a game that has a potential to be a shootout. 

Baker Mayfield OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

Can Baker Mayfield’s magical scrambling plays continue in Week 7? I’m buying him as a rusher in this matchup: 

All season long Baker Mayfield has made some magical plays on third downs with his legs, and I wouldn't be shocked if he has to rely on them a lot in Week 7.

The Lions are an elite run defense (third in EPA/Rush), but they have given up 135 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in six games, including a touchdown run to Patrick Mahomes in Week 6.

If the Bucs are forced to throw a lot – they are expected to be trailing in this game based on the latest odds – Mayfield may have to use his legs from time to time to pick up a first down or two.

He’s cleared this line three times this season and has at least 13 rushing yards in every game. He’s worth a look with the Bucs currently depleted on the offensive side of the ball. 

Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+140) – Peter Dewey

Don’t look now, but Sam LaPorta is getting hot for this Lions offense, and I like him in a favorable matchup with this Tampa Bay secondary: 

Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has been on fire as of late, catching 10 of his 12 targets for 147 yards and two scores over the last two weeks.

Now, he takes on a Tampa Bay team that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns this season, including four to the tight end position.

LaPorta has 33 targets across six games, and the Lions have clearly found ways to get him open down the field as of late, as he’s averaging 14.3 yards per reception over his last three games.

At +140, he’s worth a look in what should be a high-scoring affair. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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