Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 7 Picks for Every Game

The 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets continues this week as Iain MacMillan bets on every single NFL regular season game.

The Road to 272 Bets Continues in Week 7. / Rico Dowdle: Grant Halverson/Getty Images, Josh Jacobs: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images, Drake London: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Jayden Daniels: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

After taking two steps forward with a strong Week 6, we took one step back in the Week 7 edition of the Road to 272 Bets. A disastrous Sunday afternoon lead us to another losing weekend, going 6-9 for -3.57 units.

The good news is, there is still plenty of football left to watch and bet on this season so let's continue on our goal of finishing the season in the green. As more games happen, we have a larger sample size of metrics to rely on when making our picks, so let's use that data and try to string together a winning Week 7.

Let's dive into my best bet for every game this week.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.

Road to 272 Bets Week 6 Record

• 6-9 (-3.57 units)

Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record

• 40-52-1 (-9.97 units)

NFL Week 7 Best Bets for Every Game

Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction

Unless the Cincinnati Bengals are playing against a team that's as bad as they are, I can't bet on them to cover a spread unless it's over a touchdown. The Bengals have no redeeming qualities on either side of the ball, ranking 30th in EPA per Play and 29th in opponent EPA per play. They also rank second last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.6.

Meanwhile, I may not have been as high on the Steelers as maybe I should have been last week. The Steelers are ninth in the NFL in DVOA, and Aaron Rodgers has shown that he can give them enough production at quarterback to let the coaching and defense lead them to wins and covers. Despite the recent trends of divisional underdogs winning on Thursday Night Football, I simply can't find a reason to bet the Bengals.

Pick: Steelers -5.5 (-109)

Rams vs. Jaguars Prediction

Before you lay the points with the Rams in London, remember that Puka Nacua is listed as questionable for this week with an injury. If he can't go, this Rams offense is going to be significantly different than when he's on the field. The Rams' wide receiver is +550 to win Offensive Player of the Year, hauling in 28 more receptions than anyone else on the team. If the Rams try to lean on the run game to overcome Nacua's absence, they may struggle to do it against a Jaguars defense that ranks second in the NFL in opponent rush success rate.

The Jaguars' defense has been the strength of their team, ranking fifth in opponent EPA per play. The Rams' defense has also been strong, ranking fourth in that stat. In an international game between two top-five defenses per EPA and an injured offensive star, I'll bet the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 44.5 (-105) via Caesars

Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction

The Chiefs have shown this isn't the end of their dynasty, but that doesn't mean I'm rushing to lay 12 points on them against a divisional rival. The Raiders' offense has been largely bad to start the season, but they should be able to run the ball against this Chiefs' defense. The Chiefs rank 30th in opponent rush EPA while allowing 4.7 yards per carry. If that leads to open lanes for Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders have a chance to stay in this game.

The Raiders have still been solid on defense, despite the lack of results. They're 10th in defensive DVOA, well above the Chiefs, who come in at 19th. They also rank inside the top 10 in opponent EPA per play.

There's enough there to trust the Raiders getting 12 points in this AFC West showdown.

Pick: Raiders +12 (-107)

Eagles vs. Vikings Prediction

As dire as things look for the Philadelphia Eagles right now, I'm ready to buy low on this team. I could not be more out on the Minnesota Vikings, who I believe to be the most overvalued team in the betting market right now. The Vikings' offense has to choose between Carson Wentz and J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, neither of whom has looked competent for the majority of this season. Their offense ranks just 27th in the league in both EPA per play and DVOA.

Defensively, the Vikings can be run on. They have allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season and rank 25th in opponent rush EPA. If the Eagles can finally re-establish their rushing attack, they're going to be in a great spot to win and cover.

Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-106)

Panthers vs. Jets Prediction

The Carolina Panthers are far from a good team, but they're at least no longer a horrible team, which is something the Jets certainly are. The Panthers outrank them in virtually every metric, including DVOA (23rd vs. 27th), Net Yards per Play (22nd vs. 28th), EPA per play (13th vs. 28th), and opponent EPA per play (12th vs. 19th).

On top of the measurable factors and analytics, the Jets' vibes and chemistry seem to be at an all-time low. Justin Fields continues to prove he's not an NFL quarterback, and the Aaron Glenn experiment seems to be over before it even starts.

I'm not going to overthink this one. I'll take the better team in a pick'em spot.

Pick: Panthers -110 via FanDuel

Dolphins vs. Browns Prediction

Speaking of dysfunctional locker rooms, the Dolphins might be in the worst situation in the NFL despite having a win on the season. Their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has spoken about players not showing up for "players only" meetings, and their head coach, Mike McDaniel, talks to the media like he's just gotten back from the front lines.

There's not much to praise the Browns for offensively, but at least their defense has been strong to start the season. Their pass rush has been effective, and they rank inside the top 10 in most metrics. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' defense is in the bottom three in the league, including 31st in opponent EPA and DVOA. That will set up rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel to have by far the easiest matchup he's had through his first few starts.

Pick: Browns -2.5 (-106)

Saints vs. Bears Prediction

The Saints may just have one win on the season, but I firmly believe we've seen enough to know that they aren't quite as bad as their preseason projections. Spencer Rattler has shown flashes of competence at quarterback, and their defense ranks in the top half of the NFL in stopping the run, including allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.

I'm out on the Bears. Ahead of their Monday Night Football game against the Commanders, the Bears are 30th in the league in Net Yards per Play (-1.4), 25th in DVOA, and in the bottom 10 in both EPA and success rate.

Pick: Saints +210 via DraftKings

Patriots vs. Titans Prediction

The Titans have fired their head coach, Brian Callahan, and there's almost no situation I can bet on this team in any fashion. An interim head coach isn't going to fix the fact that they're last in Net Yards per Play (-1.7), 31st in DVOA, last in EPA per play, and 27th in opponent EPA per play.

Drake Maye, who has been playing at an MVP level this season, should be able to torch this defense and leave the Titans in the dust. The Patriots have had some defensive issues of their own, but their offense has been a top 10 unit. That's enough for me to lay 6.5 points on them against the worst team in the NFL.

Pick: Patriots -6.5 (-120) via FanDuel

Colts vs. Chargers Prediction

It's time to start treating the Indianapolis Colts as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. You can say what you want about Daniel Jones' time in New York, but he has been the perfect quarterback for Shane Steichen's system, and the underlying metrics for this team back up their strong record.

The Colts are second in the NFL in DVOA, fifth in Net Yards per Play, and they're the only team in the NFL that ranks inside the top six in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. There are only a few teams the Colts should be underdogs against, and the Chargers aren't one of them.

The Los Angeles offense has struggled lately, largely due to missing their top two offensive tackles. The Chargers come into this week just 21st in the NFL in EPA per play and 10th in Net Yards per Play (+0.5).

I'll back the Colts on the moneyline in this one.

Pick: Colts +108 via FanDuel

Giants vs. Broncos Prediction

Don't let the Giants' Week 6 win against the Eagles convince you this team is better than they are. Sure, they're more effective with Jaxson Dart at quarterback compared to Russell Wilson, but they still have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, and now they have to hit the road to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Facing a Broncos' defense that ranks sixth in DVOA, first in opponent EPA, and first in opponent success rate is a nightmare situation for a rookie quarterback making his fourth career start.

The Broncos have been the best home team in the league so far in 2025, leading all teams in Net Yards per Play at home at +2.5. I see no reason why that won't continue in Week 7 against a bad Giants team.

Pick: Broncos -6.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Packers vs. Cardinals Prediction

The Cardinals are already a below-average football team, but now they have some significant injuries they're dealing with. Darius Robinson, Bilal Nicholas, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emari Demercardo, Travis Vokolek, and Kyler Murray are on the injury list, and it's yet to be determined how many will be returning for this week. In all honesty, Murray being back may not even be a step up for the team after Jacoby Brissett seamlessly filled in for the Cardinals' starter in Week 6 against the Colts.

I'm still very much a believer in this Packers team that ranks third in Net Yards per Play (+1.4), while also ranking seventh in DVOA. They need to iron out some wrinkles defensively, but I have no interest in backing this Cardinals team against a far superior Green Bay squad.

Pick: Packers -6.5 (-110) via Caesars

Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction

Whenever the Cowboys take on a team with a competent offense, they need to score almost every time they touch the ball. The Cowboys' defense is last in DVOA, last in opponent EPA per play, last in opponent success rate, and 30th in opponent yards per play (6.2). Now, they have to take on a Commanders offense that's inside the top 10 in virtually every metric.

The Commanders should have no problem putting up points at will, so the only question in this game is whether the Cowboys' offense can keep pace. If they can't, the Commanders will win and cover.

Pick: Commanders -2 (-109)

Falcons vs. 49ers Prediction

The San Francisco 49ers have continued to see their injuries pile up, and while they're expected to potentially get back George Kittle this weekend, some of their underlying numbers are still extremely concerning. For example, they're 21st in the NFL in DVOA and just 17th in Net Yards Per Play.

The Falcons are continuing to figure things out offensively, but their defense has quietly been one of the most effective in the NFL to begin the season. There's an argument to be made that they're still being undervalued in the betting market with the amount of weapons they have on offense and the numbers they've posted on defense to date.

I'll take them getting more than a field goal worth of points on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Falcons +3.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction

I've correctly predicted the Eagles as a team that was going to take a step back, and they've since lost two straight games. Now I'm eyeing the Buccaneers as the next team to regress.

Their numbers don't match up with their 5-1 record. They're just 13th in the league in DVOA and 11th in Net Yards per Play. Those numbers point to some significant regression coming for them in the coming weeks.

DO NOT BET ON THE BUCS! @IainMacBets (as he wears a Falcons jersey) explains why he's out on the Bucs as a Super Bowl contender. pic.twitter.com/wNl2wgZNa3

— SI Betting (@SI_Betting) October 13, 2025

Stylistically, this is an elite matchup for the Lions. Detroit ranks fifth in the NFL in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate, and now they get to face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 21st in opponent dropback EPA, 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and 24th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.0 yards per throw.

Despite the loss on Sunday night last week, I'll back the Lions to win and cover i this spot.

Pick: Lions -4.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Texans vs. Seahawks Prediction

While I do love this Seahawks team, I think the Texans are a fascinating bet getting 3.5 points coming off a BYE week. The Texans were experiencing a ton of offensive issues early in the season, but then posted back-to-back strong performances against the Titans and Ravens before the BYE.

We don't have to worry about the Texans' defense coming to play. They have allowed the fewest points per game this season at 12.2 while ranking third in both opponent EPA per play and defensive DVOA. They can do enough by themselves to keep this game within a field goal.

Pick: Texans +3.5 (-105) via FanDuel

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