Padres vs. Giants Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 5

The San Francisco Giants are aiming to creep closer to the San Diego Padres in the NL West standings on Thursday with lefty Robbie Ray on the mound.

The Giants took the third game of this three-game set, and they have a chance to split the series as slight favorites at home in Game 4.

The Padres will counter Ray with righty Dylan Cease, who has struggled at times this season but has an expected ERA of 3.64.

Can the Giants win a second straight game to end this series with a split?

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s contest.

Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Padres -1.5 (+170)
Giants +1.5 (-205)

Moneyline

Padres: +100
Giants: -120

Total

7 (Over -112/Under +102)

Padres vs. Giants Probable Pitchers

San Diego: Dylan Cease (1-4, 4.66 ERA)
San Francisco: Robbie Ray (7-1, 2.43 ERA)

Padres vs. Giants How to Watch

Date: Thursday, June 5
Time: 3:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Oracle Park
How to Watch (TV): NBCS-BA, SDPA
Padres record: 35-25
Giants record: 34-28

Padres vs. Giants Best MLB Prop Bets

Giants Best MLB Prop Bet

Robbie Ray OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-155)

Giants lefty Robbie Ray has struggled a bit with free passes this season, allowing 30 walks across his 12 outings. Ray ranks in just the 24th percentile in MLB in walk percentage, yet oddsmakers have him set at 1.5 walks in this series finale.

The Padres average 3.10 walks per game as a team, and it’s worth noting that Ray has allowed two or more free passes in eight of his 12 starts. In those eight games, he’s walked at least three batters six times.

I think this line should be up at 2.5 on Thursday, so I’ll gladly take the OVER.

Padres vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Giants should split this four-game set with San Diego:

The San Francisco Giants are aiming to split their four-game set with the San Diego Padres, especially since they enter this game two games behind them in the NL West standings.

Luckily for the Giants, they have veteran lefty Robbie Ray on the mound, who has been nothing short of excellent in the 2025 season.

Ray ranks in the 96th percentile in pitching run value, 86th percentile in expected ERA and 90th percentile in expected batting average against, according to Statcast. He’s led the Giants to a 10-2 record in his 12 outings and currently holds a 2.43 ERA.

Over 12 starts, Ray has allowed three or fewer earned runs on 11 occasions, constantly keeping the Giants in games. Both of their losses in his outings came because of a lack of run support, as the Giants scored just one total run in those two games, dropping them 3-1 and 1-0.

On the Padres’ side, Dylan Cease (4.66 ERA) gets the ball in this series finale. While Cease has pitched better than his ERA suggests – he has an expected ERA of 3.64 – the righty has given up three or more earned runs in seven of his 12 starts.

Now, the Padres are still 7-5 in his outings overall, but Cease has been shaky at times, failing to get through five innings in five different outings.

The Giants are an impressive 18-11 at home this season, and I expect them to bounce back from two losses early in this series to even things up with Ray on the bump.

Pick: Giants Moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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