Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Orioles-Mariners, Twins-A’s and Giants-Padres)

Breaking down some of the best bets for the MLB action on Thursday, June 5, including a pick for the San Francisco Giants-San Diego Padres series finale.

San Francisco Giants pitcher Robbie Ray has led the Giants to a 10-2 record in 12 starts this season. / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Thursday’s Major League Baseball action features a bunch of afternoon games and several series finales, including a doubleheader between the Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals after Wednesday’s game was postponed.

While I am not betting on that doubleheader action, I do have three plays for bettors to consider on Thursday, including a YRFI/NRFI pick in the Baltimore Orioles-Seattle Mariners contest. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each of the playoffs for a slightly shortened slate before some terrific weekend series kick off on Friday. 

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Baltimore Orioles-Seattle Mariners Yes Run First Inning (-110)
• San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-120) vs. San Diego Padres
• Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-180) vs. A’s

Baltimore Orioles-Seattle Mariners Yes Run First Inning (-110)

Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo has been sold in the 2025 season, posting a 2.82 ERA across 11 starts. As a result, he and the Mariners are favored at home on Thursday against the Baltimore Orioles and veteran starter Zach Eflin. 

Eflin has an expected ERA of 3.44 this season, but he has struggled at times, allowing eight runs in a loss to the Washington Nationals and five runs in a loss to the Boston Red Sox. Eflin did spin seven innings of shutout ball in his last start.

However, for this game, I’m looking strictly at the first inning.

This season, the Mariners have hit a YRFI in 34 of their 60 games while the Orioles have done it in 30 of their 60 games. 

When it comes to these starters, they have been YRFI machines. 

In the first inning this season, Woo has allowed nine runs in 11 starts, posting a 7.36 ERA. Opponents are hitting a shocking .360 against him in the opening frame. After that? Well, Woo has a 3.00 ERA or better in every other inning – except the fourth inning (8.18). 

Eflin has been very similar. The veteran right-hander has a 6.43 ERA in the opening frame, allowing five runs in seven innings of work. Opponents are hitting .250 with an .893 OPS against him in the first inning this season.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see either of these teams get on the board early on Thursday afternoon. 

San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-120) vs. San Diego Padres

The San Francisco Giants are aiming to split their four-game set with the San Diego Padres, especially since they enter this game two games behind them in the NL West standings.

Luckily for the Giants, they have veteran lefty Robbie Ray on the mound, who has been nothing short of excellent in the 2025 season.

Ray ranks in the 96th percentile in pitching run value, 86th percentile in expected ERA and 90th percentile in expected batting average against, according to Statcast. He’s led the Giants to a 10-2 record in his 12 outings and currently holds a 2.43 ERA.

Over 12 starts, Ray has allowed three or fewer earned runs on 11 occasions, constantly keeping the Giants in games. Both of their losses in his outings came because of a lack of run support, as the Giants scored just one total run in those two games, dropping them 3-1 and 1-0. 

On the Padres’ side, Dylan Cease (4.66 ERA) gets the ball in this series finale. While Cease has pitched better than his ERA suggests – he has an expected ERA of 3.64 – the righty has given up three or more earned runs in seven of his 12 starts.

Now, the Padres are still 7-5 in his outings overall, but Cease has been shaky at times, failing to get through five innings in five different outings. 

The Giants are an impressive 18-11 at home this season, and I expect them to bounce back from two losses early in this series to even things up with Ray on the bump. 

Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-180) vs. A’s

The A’s losing streak could reach 10 games on Thursday afternoon, and I’m expecting it to happen with the A’s set to rely heavily on their bullpen.

Mitch Spence will be the opener for the A’s in this series finale, and he has a 4.38 ERA across 22 outings in 2025. Unfortunately, the rest of the bullpen behind him is even worse, ranking dead last in MLB with a 6.28 ERA in the 2025 season. 

The Twins are rolling with David Festa in this matchup, and while he has yet to get through five innings in a start in 2025, he’s allowed just two earned runs across three outings. Plus, the Twins are third in MLB in bullpen ERA (3.11), so I trust their back end to keep things intact once Festa exits. 

After getting to 22-21 earlier this season, the A’s have dropped 19 of their last 20 games. I can’t back them in this matchup, especially since the bullpen is going to play such a major role.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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