Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots & A Few More Teams Who Could Lead the NFL in Wins This Season

Kalshi traders are already picking sides on who runs the table in 2026, and a few names at the top of the board might surprise you.

Feb 8, 2026; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike MacDonald celebrates with quarterback Sam Darnold (14) after defeating the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The NFL offseason is still playing out, and Kalshi's prediction market is already running with opinions. The "Best Regular Season Record" market has more than a handful of teams bunched together at the top, which tells you something: nobody has made this a runaway yet. 

Last year's Super Bowl matchup sits at the top of the board right now. Seattle sitting at 18% and New England at 17% is a story worth paying attention to, even if both numbers come with some questions attached.

Here's where the market stands and what it's actually saying.

NFL Best Regular Season Record | Kalshi Market

Kalshi

Seattle Seahawks | 18% Chance

The Seahawks leading this market is one of the more interesting data points on the board. Seattle is coming off a Super Bowl win, and even with some roster turnover that comes naturally after a championship run, traders are clearly confident in what this team has built. At 18%, the market is saying the Seahawks are the team to beat heading into 2026.

The questions are fair. They play in what many consider the toughest division in football, and the NFC West is going to push them every week. Strength of schedule matters when you're chasing the best record in the league, not just a playoff spot. But a roster that just won a Super Bowl doesn't fall apart overnight, and 18% reflects the belief that Seattle's foundation is strong enough to handle the grind of a long season even with a target on their back.

New England Patriots | 17% Chance

New England at 17% is a number that carries a lot more weight than it would have a few years ago. The Patriots were in the Super Bowl last season, and Drake Maye is heading into his third year with a legitimate supporting cast around him. This isn't a team asking you to trust a rebuild anymore. They've already shown the results.

The market putting them at 17% reflects a team that has earned its way back into these conversations. The AFC East is competitive, and nothing in the NFL is guaranteed, but New England is no longer a project. They're a contender, and that 17% might end up looking conservative by the time September rolls around.

Buffalo Bills | 13% Chance

Buffalo feels like the most straightforward name on this board. The Bills have been one of the most consistent teams in the AFC over the last several years, Josh Allen is coming off another strong season, and their window to contend is wide open. The 13% might actually undervalue them relative to some of the names above, depending on how you think this offseason shakes out.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen steps back before throwing his pass during second half action at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Jan. 17, 2026. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Baltimore Ravens | 11% Chance

Baltimore at 11% is interesting because their floor is so high. Lamar Jackson is a dual threat unlike anyone else in the league, this team is built to win regular season games. The Ravens have been one of the better teams in the AFC for years. If Jackson stays healthy, 11% probably looks light by the time the season ends.

Baltimore is entering into some uncharted territory for their organization this upcoming season. They have a new coach calling the shots for the first time in 18 years. Jesse Minter is stepping into the role and he has some big shoes to fill. 

Kansas City Chiefs | 9% Chance

Nine percent for the Chiefs is a number that deserves context. This is still Patrick Mahomes. This is still Andy Reid. Kansas City has been to the Super Bowl in three of the last four years, and their core infrastructure doesn't just disappear. The market appears to be pricing in some regression, maybe related to roster changes or the weight of sustained excellence over a long run. But calling the Chiefs a long shot feels premature until they show you something different.

Other Teams to Watch

The board doesn't stop there. A few other names are sitting around the top range and worth keeping an eye on as the offseason develops:

Detroit Lions (13%)

Jacksonville Jaguars (11%)

Los Angeles Rams (11%)

Cincinnati Bengals (10%)

Houston Texans (10%)

The Market Read

The bunching at the top of the NFL Best Record board reflects real uncertainty about how 2026 shakes out. Nobody has separated from the field yet, and the market is pricing in that any of five or six teams could realistically claim the top record when the dust settles in January.

What's worth watching is whether that spread tightens as rosters get finalized and training camp news starts rolling in. Right now, the market is telling you it's still open.

No team has made this market easy, and that's exactly what makes it worth watching.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of May 7, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.