Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 31

The Yankees edged the Rays 5–4 in extra innings Wednesday night thanks to Ryan McMahon’s walk-off single in the 11th, but not before Tampa Bay blew leads in the third, ninth, and 10th innings.

Trent Grisham, Anthony Volpe, and Cody Bellinger all came through with clutch, game-tying hits to keep New York alive in a game that saw both bullpens bend repeatedly.

Thursday's finale will feature Tampa Bay right-hander Ryan Pepiot (6–8, 3.42 ERA), who is coming off six scoreless innings (two unearned runs) with just two hits allowed against Cincinnati.

The Yankees counter with Marcus Stroman (2–2, 6.09 ERA), who was knocked around in his last outing for four runs, five hits, and four walks over just 3.2 innings against Philadelphia, and carries a bloated 7.11 ERA at home in five Bronx starts.

Let’s get down to business with a prop and prediction on Thursday.

Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays +1.5 (+136)
Yankees +1.5 (-164)

Moneyline

Rays (-116)
Yankees (-102)

Total

Over 8.5 (-118)
Under 8.5 (-104)

Rays vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Rays: Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.42 ERA)
Yankees: Marcus Stroman (2-2, 3.42 ERA)

Rays vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 31, 2025
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): YES, FDSN Sun
Rays Record: 54-55
Yankees Record: 59-49

Rays vs. Yankees Prop Bet

Ryan McMahon Home Run (+560 at FanDuel)

I wrote in Thursday’s Daily Dingers piece why I think Wednesday’s hero has upside to go long against Pepiot tonight. McMahon draws a favorable matchup Thursday against him, whom he’s already logged four hits against in nine plate appearances. With 14 of his 16 homers coming off righties and elite exit velocity metrics, McMahon is well-positioned to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch in the series finale.

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

The Rays offer some value on Thursday as they’re desperately due for a win after losing six of their last seven. Pepiot has quietly been one of the most effective arms in their rotation, holding opponents to a 1.15 WHIP over 126.1 IP and a 3.35 ERA on the road. But more importantly, he's limited current Yankees bats to a .205 xBA and .368 xSLG per Statcast.

On the other side, Stroman has struggled mightily since rejoining the rotation in late June, posting a 1.59 WHIP and giving up loud contact with a 49.1% hard-hit rate and 91.7 mph average exit velocity — both bottom 4% in MLB. Add in the fact that Aaron Judge remains on the IL, and New York’s run production ceiling isn’t quite as stable. Believe it or not, Tampa ranks ninth in MLB in runs per game (4.6), including 4.5 per game on the road, so let’s look for a bounce-back to close the series.

Pick: Rays (-116 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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