Yankees' MLB Playoff Odds (New York Has Edge Over Cleveland, Texas in Latest Odds)

The New York Yankees won the American League in the 2024 season, but they have not been able to come close to repeating their regular-season success from a season ago in 2025.

New York is in third place in the AL East, and it has just a one-game lead on the Cleveland Guardians in the AL wild card race. New York is currently the No. 3 wild card – behind Boston and Seattle – and it’s just 2.5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers, who are fifth in the AL wild card standings.

The Yankees have been well under .500 over their last 50 games (21-29), and they’re six games under .500 since the start of June. That has put New York in a battle for a playoff spot down the stretch of the regular season, especially with Aaron Judge dealing with an injury.

Judge recently returned to the lineup, but it’s unclear if he could re-aggravate his flexor strain and miss more time. If he does, an already sputtering New York offense could be in major trouble.

Still, oddsmakers have the Yankees set as pretty sizable favorites to make the playoffs in the American League, even though they have very little cushion over the chasing pack.

Here’s a look at their playoff odds ahead of the MLB action on Tuesday, Aug. 12.

Yankees Playoff Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Make the Playoffs: –390
To Miss the Playoffs: +320

Based on these odds, the Yankees have an implied probability of 79.59 percent to make the postseason in 2025.

If New York has one thing going in its favor it’s the team’s schedule down the stretch. The Yankees, per Tankathon, have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule remaining (.481 winning percentage) while the Rangers have the fourth-hardest.

Still, New York’s bullpen (4.24 ERA) is going to have to turn things around in the coming weeks if the Yankees really want to get back on track. Devin Williams has been a disaster this season, and the Yankees acquired three bullpen arms that have all had their struggles (Jake Bird was even sent to Triple-A) since the deadline.

As for the chasing pack, Texas may be the most dangerous team because of its top starting pitching. The Rangers have two studs in Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom, and they rank first in MLB in overall ERA this season. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 17th.

Cleveland and Texas both have a legit shot of passing New York, but there is a lot of room for potential movement in the AL wild card picture since the top seed – the Seattle Mariners – has just a 5.5-game cushion on the No. 5 team (Texas).

I’d lean with the Yankees turning things around, but a multi-month stretch of under .500 ball is extremely concerning at this point in the season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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