The Hidden Reason PSA 9s Are Close to Raw Pricing
Premiums for graded 9s from the big four graders (PSA, SGC, CGC, and BGS) have plummeted to nearly raw-level pricing (and even lower) and collectors are up in arms about it. While the drop is heavily covered on cardboard social media, the why of it all is often unexplored. When it is brought up, the topic is charged enough that the discussion devolves until the word “sheeple” makes an appearance. Still, third-party grading is a vital part of the hobby and it is important to get a handle on why the premiums have dried up.
The common answer given for the drop is the increase in the graded card population overall. PSA, the largest grader, grades well over a million cards a month and the total combined grading volume at the big four graders is approaching two million quickly. From 1991-2020, PSA graded 80 million items. At PSA's current rate of 1.3 million cards a month, they can double that total every six years. It is likely that from 2020-2030 the overall graded card population from the big four will have at least tripled.
DID YOU KNOW: Jackson Merrill's first Bowman auto came in 2022, instead of via 2021 Bowman Draft, after the wrong player's photo was used on his debut "1st Bowman" card.
— PSAcard (@PSAcard) September 19, 2024
The top copy of that first auto – the coveted 1/1 Superfractor – is at auction in PSA's @eBay store, ending… pic.twitter.com/DQKabVB9GO
Why are graded 9s dropping and not 10s? Chances are you’ve seen the ubiquitous “Change My Mind” meme with something along the lines of “Graded 9s Should Be Worth More than Raw” as the headline. You never see anything about graded 10s though. What gives? It turns out 9s aren’t special and 10s have actually seen a similar decline in premiums.
It’s not a nefarious cover-up. It’s just really easy to see that the premiums for 9s have gotten close to raw pricing. It leaps off the page. It’s harder to realize that premiums for 10s have gone from five to six times raw to three to four times and even less for non-rookies. That requires some math.
In honor of his 29th birthday, show us a favorite @PatrickMahomes card.
— PSAcard (@PSAcard) September 17, 2024
We'll start. 👇 pic.twitter.com/rpsjJMb6So
While the drop in 10 premiums might not be as obvious, it is helping to drive the drop in the premiums for 9s. One might pay twice the price of a raw for a 9 if a 10 costs six times that amount. Even though collectors haven’t noticed the drop in 10s, they behave as if they do as they now choose to buy 10s over 9s more affordably. The hidden drop in gem premiums is helping to drive the very public drop in premiums for 9s.
