College basketball conference previews: AAC

2015-16 AAC basketball preview: SMU's postseason ban takes best team out of the running for conference championship but allows for a closer race.

With the start of college basketball season less than a month away, we're previewing each team in nine conferences. Using a statistical projection system developed by economist Dan Hanner and SI's Luke Winn, which is now in its second season, we've forecast the conference standings and the top seven scorers from each team. First up is the American Athletic Conference.

Coach of the year: Kevin Ollie, Connecticut

In Ollie’s three years as UConn’s head coach, the Huskies have served a postseason ban (2012-13), won the national championship ('13-14) and failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament ('14-15). None of those outcomes is likely in 2015-16. UConn is too good to miss the tournament, but probably not good enough to make a run at another title. Still, the Huskies have the talent to compete for the AAC championship, which would putt Ollie on the short list for an award honoring the conference’s best coach. It also would not help stem speculation over the possibility of Ollie leaving Storrs, Conn., for an NBA job.

Player of the year: Nic Moore, Southern Methodist

Perhaps the most frustrating part about the penalties the NCAA assessed to SMU last month—including a postseason ban—is their effect on players who are believed to have done nothing wrong. Among them is Moore, a point guard who led the Mustangs in minutes played (1,179), assist rate (31.1) and Win Shares (5.2) in 2014-15, according to sports-reference.com. Though he won’t be able to play in the NCAA tournament again one year after he and the Mustangs suffered a brutal loss to UCLA in the round of 64, Moore is the best backcourt player on the AAC’s best team. He’ll shine during his final year of college hoops.

Freshman of the year: Dedric Lawson, Memphis

It turns out Lawson’s reclassification 2016 to 2015 is exactly what Memphis needed. When his decision was reported last September, the Tigers expected to add him to a rotation featuring all-AAC first-team member Austin Nichols. But Nichols transferred to Virginia this summer, leaving a void in the frontcourt. Lawson, who’s highly regarded for his offensive versatility, could play significant minutes in his first year on campus. Replacing Nichols won’t be easy; he led the Tigers with 18.0 points per 40 minutes and ranked second in the AAC in block rate in 2014-15, according to sports-reference.com. Yet Memphis will count on Lawson to produce right away.

Projected Conference Race

conference rank	team	projected Conf. record	last year's Conf. record
1	SMU	14-4	15-3
2	Connecticut	14-4	10-8
3	Cincinnati	13-5	13-5
4	Tulsa	11-7	14-4
5	Temple	10-8	13-5
6	Memphis	10-8	10-8
7	Houston	8-10	4-14
8	East Carolina	5-13	6-12
9	Tulane	5-13	6-12
10	UCF	5-13	5-13
11	South Florida	4-14	3-15

Each team's outlook in about 68 words

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Nic Moore	PG	14.3	1.8	5.0	116.1	23%	84%
Markus Kennedy	PF	12.1	7.1	1.3	111.5	26%	60%
Keith Frazier	SG	11.7	4.2	1.6	116.8	19%	70%
Jordan Tolbert	PF	8.6	5.3	0.6	109.7	21%	53%
Ben Moore	PF	8.4	5.6	1.8	108.5	21%	61%
Sterling Brown	SF	6.6	5.2	2.1	122.5	14%	66%
Semi Ojeleye	PF	5.9	4.1	0.5	105.2	19%	25%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Daniel Hamilton	SF	12.7	7.1	3.0	103.7	26%	80%
Rodney Purvis	SG	12.4	2.8	1.4	105.1	24%	67%
Sterling Gibbs	PG	11.6	2.2	3.5	110.2	22%	71%
Amida Brimah	C	8.9	5.0	0.4	122.1	16%	65%
Jalen Adams	PG	8.5	3.1	3.3	108.4	21%	60%
Shonn Miller	PF	8.2	5.2	0.8	106.6	19%	55%
Kentan Facey	PF	3.6	3.9	0.4	122.2	13%	40%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Octavius Ellis	PF	10.6	7.4	1.2	108.4	22%	70%
Troy Caupain	PG	10.4	4.1	3.6	111.0	20%	75%
Gary Clark	PF	9.0	7.5	1.5	114.9	19%	70%
Farad Cobb	SG	8.5	2.5	1.5	109.2	20%	55%
Shaquille Thomas	SF	7.7	3.5	0.8	100.9	20%	55%
Kevin Johnson	PG	7.7	1.9	1.5	103.6	20%	53%
Coreontae DeBerry	C	6.8	3.8	0.3	102.0	22%	41%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
James Woodard	SG	14.3	5.0	1.5	114.0	20%	80%
Shaquille Harrison	PG	13.4	5.0	3.7	100.5	27%	78%
Rashad Smith	SF	9.7	6.0	1.0	106.4	19%	69%
D'Andre Wright	PF	9.1	6.2	1.0	102.4	22%	64%
Rashad Ray	PG	7.5	2.2	2.8	109.4	17%	62%
Pat Birt	SG	5.5	2.2	0.9	106.0	18%	40%
Brandon Swannegan	PF	4.9	4.8	0.3	103.1	16%	48%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Quenton DeCosey	SG	12.9	4.4	2.2	104.2	25%	72%
Obi Enechionyia	PF	12.2	6.6	0.8	111.5	21%	76%
Josh Brown	PG	9.8	4.0	2.5	106.5	18%	78%
Jaylen Bond	PF	7.5	7.2	0.8	106.9	19%	60%
Devin Coleman	SG	6.2	2.8	1.1	98.4	22%	42%
Daniel Dingle	SF	6.2	3.6	1.7	101.0	19%	54%
Levan Alston	PG	5.2	2.1	1.7	103.5	19%	40%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Ricky Tarrant	PG	12.7	3.0	2.5	107.0	23%	72%
Shaq Goodwin	PF	12.1	8.2	2.0	108.7	22%	75%
Trahson Burrell	SF	9.4	5.1	1.6	107.4	23%	58%
Dedric Lawson	PF	8.7	6.3	0.8	102.3	20%	61%
Avery Woodson	SG	7.9	2.4	1.2	105.1	16%	60%
Keelon 'K.J.' Lawson	SF	7.4	4.1	1.1	102.3	20%	52%
Markel Crawford	SG	6.9	2.7	1.7	105.3	18%	55%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Chicken Knowles	PF	11.7	6.6	1.1	111.4	21%	72%
Ronnie Johnson	PG	11.1	2.9	3.0	107.7	23%	70%
Devonta Pollard	PF	10.7	6.0	1.1	103.9	23%	67%
Damyean Dotson	SF	9.2	3.9	1.0	110.7	21%	57%
LeRon Barnes	SG	7.5	5.7	1.2	108.3	14%	75%
L.J. Rose	PG	7.2	2.0	3.9	104.9	21%	56%
Eric Weary	SG	5.9	3.0	0.8	100.2	20%	43%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Caleb White	SF	14.5	4.0	1.6	112.9	20%	84%
B.J. Tyson	SG	14.0	3.9	1.7	102.0	28%	67%
Charles Foster	PG	9.0	3.3	2.9	103.5	18%	75%
Michel-Ofik Nzege	PF	7.2	5.4	0.8	110.2	17%	55%
Marshall Guilmette	PF	6.7	3.7	1.0	100.7	20%	50%
Clarence Williams	PF	6.5	4.7	0.6	106.8	18%	50%
Lance Tejada, Jr.	PG	6.4	1.9	2.3	98.4	22%	49%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Louis Dabney	PG	15.3	3.7	1.8	107.2	24%	81%
Malik Morgan	SG	9.4	4.3	1.9	108.9	20%	73%
Dylan Osetkowski	C	7.9	5.7	1.0	103.2	19%	63%
Jernard Jarreau	PF	6.8	5.1	1.0	98.3	19%	60%
Blake Paul	PF	6.8	4.6	0.6	100.7	18%	54%
Cameron Reynolds	SG	6.6	2.3	0.9	97.3	24%	43%
Melvin Frazier	SG	6.2	2.5	1.1	103.8	19%	47%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Adonys Henriquez	SG	12.9	4.2	2.2	116.4	18%	85%
B.J. Taylor	SG	12.3	2.8	2.1	109.4	23%	70%
Justin McBride	C	9.5	5.7	0.2	100.9	27%	47%
Daiquan Walker	PG	9.4	2.2	2.3	101.4	21%	64%
Staphon Blair	PF	8.8	4.9	0.2	114.0	18%	60%
Matt Williams	SG	7.5	2.7	1.1	118.3	16%	53%
Tacko Fall	C	6.6	4.5	0.5	104.8	19%	48%

Name	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	POSS	MINS
Troy Holston, Jr.	SG	12.4	3.9	1.5	101.8	20%	85%
Chris Perry	C	10.1	5.9	0.7	103.0	24%	57%
Nehemias Morillo	SF	9.9	4.0	1.3	96.0	22%	65%
Roddy Peters	PG	9.7	3.8	3.4	99.7	22%	80%
Bo Zeigler	PF	7.1	4.5	0.6	98.7	18%	59%
Angel Nunez	SF	6.5	5.5	1.2	101.1	20%	49%
Luis Santos	PF	4.9	3.7	0.4	101.7	17%	40%