Arizona gets dreaded 'upset' seed in 2025 NCAA Tournament projections
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It's safe to say nobody wants a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded in 1985, there have been 55 upsets by No. 12 seeds — and there were two last season. No. 12 Grand Canyon beat No. 5 Saint Mary's and No. 12 James Madison stunned No. 5 Wisconsin in the first round of the 2024 tourney.
The difference between the 12-5 and 13-6 matchup is staggering: Only 33 No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds since 1985.
Arizona's updated Bracketology predictions
In the latest 2025 NCAA Tournament projections from ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the Arizona Wildcats (20-11, 14-6) are slotted for that dreaded "upset" seed. Lunardi has Arizona as the No. 5 seed in the Midwest, matched up against the First Four winner of Ohio State vs. Oklahoma.
The top four seeds in the Midwest are projected to be Houston, Alabama, St. John's and Purdue. You could make an argument that St. John's is currently the best team in that group.
Arizona can avoid a 5-seed by making a run in the Big 12 Tournament this week. The Wildcats only need to win three games to win the tournament — and all three would be Quad 1 wins. A Quad 1 win is defined as a home win against a team in the top 30 of the NCAA NET Rankings, a neutral site win against a team in the top 50 of the NET, or a road win against a team in the top 75 of the NET.
Arizona is currently 7-11 in Quad 1 games, and getting to 9 or 10 wins would give them a shot at a No. 4 seed or better. Their most likely path to the Big 12 Tournament championship is through No. 18 Kansas, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 3 Houston.
The Wildcats are off until Thursday, when they will likely face Kansas in the quarterfinals. Here's the Big 12 Tournament schedule:
First round - Tuesday, March 11
- Game 1 - No. 12 seed Oklahoma State vs. No. 13 Seed Cincinnati - 11:30 a.m. CT
- Game 2 – No. 9 seed TCU vs. No. 16 seed Colorado - 2 p.m. CT
- Game 3 – No. 10 seed Kansas State vs. No. 15 seed Arizona State - 6 p.m. CT
- Game 4 – No. 11 seed Utah vs. No. 14 seed UCF - 8:30 p.m. CT
Second round - Wednesday, March 12
- Game 5 – No. 5 seed Iowa State vs. Winner of Game 1 - 11:30 a.m. CT
- Game 6 – No. 8 seed West Virginia vs. Winner of Game 2 - 2 p.m. CT
- Game 7 – No. 7 seed Baylor vs. Winner of Game 3 - 6 p.m. CT
- Game 8 – No. 6 seed Kansas vs. Winner of Game 4 - 8:30 p.m. CT
Quarterfinals - Thursday, March 13
- Game 9 – No. 4 seed BYU vs. Winner of Game 5 - 11:30 a.m. CT
- Game 10 – No. 1 seed Houston vs. Winner of Game 6 - 2 p.m. CT
- Game 11 – No. 2 seed Texas Tech vs. Winner of Game 7 - 6 p.m. CT
- Game 12 – No. 3 seed Arizona vs. Winner of Game 8 - 8:30 p.m. CT
More Arizona & Big 12 Analysis
-029877d49238355bd3388a94f90e3c72.jpg "Ben Sherman")
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his 27-year journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. A basketball junkie, March Madness is his favorite time of the year.