Giant shift in 2030 reason for optimism, not worry for Arkansas Razorbacks fans

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — There's a lot of consternation among Arkansas fans about how scared they are of being left behind should there be a major shuffle that creates an independent super conference once the ACC television rights are freed up after 2030 with a $75 million exit fee.

Some of this is stirred up by local media attempting to help Razorbacks athletics director Hunter Yurachek with a narrative being used to drive more money toward the football program to help with the ongoing (unless you listen to random posters on social media who say a hire has been made) coaching search.

However, there is valid concern in looking at the tea leaves and expecting the possibility of another major shift in the landscape of college football. Just not so much on the scare tactics that Arkansas will be among those left out.

Sure, it's easy to look around at the SEC and think things don't seem so hot for the Razorbacks. However, they sell more tickets than almost all other college football programs, have one of the most loyal fan bases in terms of watching the games on television despite things turning south this season, and they had winning seasons three of the past four years, with another season that would have been a winning season had Arkansas not had its schedule hijacked by COVID.

It's just not as bad as Hogs fans make it out to be when they step back. However, that doesn't mean there's not at least one SEC team in mild danger of being relegated.

There's a lot of reason to believe college football is headed for an NFL model. So, considering its leaders look for the laziest way possible to construct certain things, it's feasible that there will be two major conferences created with three divisions each with the idea of their own NFL style path to the championship game.

The recent push by the Big Ten to force nine conference games, and the inexplicable compliance by the SEC even though there was no legitimate benefit to doing so since they already dominate the television ratings, indicates that model is being firmly established so it's a tested tradition by the time a super conference forms.

That means each division is likely going to feature nine games against fellow opponents with three out of division games coming against other teams in the newly formed league. With math being pretty simple, that leaves room for 60 teams to qualify for membership.

Since money talks, ratings matter. So, the first consideration in constructing this group is TV ratings with an easy bar to assess being an average of 1 million in 2024 as an automatic no-brainer, followed by hitting at least a million twice so far this season being the next qualifier.

If that doesn't generate 60 teams, then success on the field becomes a heavily weighted factor mixed with how close to a million viewers per week a team can bring. For instance, Arkansas State, which puts almost no one in the stands and averages way below 100,00 viewers per week, including 9,000 on ESPNU against Troy, could win nine games per season, but the Red Wolves, as a ratings bottom feeder, would have zero shot to make the list.

There are 36 teams automatically in based on last season's ratings. Arkansas is firmly among them with 1.6 million viewers despite the serious drag created by the Arkansas-Pine Bluff and UAB games being broadcast nationally.

The best part for Arkansas is not only do they keep several notable rivals in this projection, but they come away with a much more manageable schedule by way of a few new teams in their division that will provide a challenge, but also greater opportunity.

SEC

While the SEC has concerns with a team or two not making it because of a lack of winning at a high level historically, the truth is, even the weaker teams tend to find a way into a bowl game and either sell out or come close to selling out stadiums that are twice as large as those throughout the rest of the country on a regular basis.

As far as ratings go, other than a rare off week where the Big Ten has a major game going on, the SEC occupies the top three spots in the rankings with head-to-head conference games in 2025 and it's not even close. It's essentially impossible for an SEC team to not draw a million viewers, especially during conference play.

Want to geek out on TV ratings data?

Through CFB Week 8, there have been 27 games that got 5 million+ viewers.

Distribution of games by network:

ABC: 19
CBS: 3
FOX: 2
ESPN: 2
NBC: 1

Distribution of teams by conference:

SEC: 32
B1G: 12
ACC: 7
ND: 2
Big 12: 1 (TCU vs. UNC)
— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) October 22, 2025

Eight of the Top 11 teams in the 2024 ratings are from the SEC with Georgia leading the way with 6 million viewers per game. Only Mississippi State struggles to break either proposed barrier.

The Bulldogs came in at 800,000 per game last season and have only broken 1 million once this season according to Sports Media Watch, although 953,000 against Arizona State almost put them over. So, that means Mississippi State will be relegated as it stands after falling 47,000 viewers short, although the Egg Bowl will probably hit the mark.

Big Ten

While the SEC is a ratings juggernaut, it is stunning how many Big Ten teams were unable to draw decent ratings. This is a conference that has a lot of teams in danger of not meeting the ratings threshold.

UCLA struggles in both ratings and attendance. The Bruins tend to run in the 20,000s for actual backsides in seats, and, outside of a stunning win over Penn State, where the Nittany Lions fans were doing a lot of the heavy lifting, ratings have been really bad.

Fortunately, for them, their ratings were much better in 2024, which helps them limp onto the list.

Meanwhile, their crosstown rivals at USC are drawing solid crowds, but no one is watching Lincoln Riley's team play. Only once do they appear on the TV ratings chart as having surpassed a million, and that was only because Notre Dame drug them out of the ditch.

They too benefit from much stronger 2024 ratings saving their bacon. However, there are seven Big Ten schools in question.

Rutgers has put up terrible numbers, and it was stunning to see how bad Michigan State is in the ratings compared to other big name Power Four schools, but the Spartans did barely creep over the line into the safe zone in the 2025 ratings.

Beyond a game against Iowa where Hawkeyes fans helped propel the final numbers to a shade above 3 million, Rutgers has typically held well below the low bar of a million views and only averaged 636,000 views last year. That makes them our first team to be relegated.

Maryland, Northwestern, Pitt, and Syracuse all drew abysmal ratings last year. The Terrapins were 72nd in the country at 386,000.

Syracuse can thank Clemson and Tennessee for bailing it out in 2025 with big numbers and Maryland is safe with Indiana and Wisconsin dragging them along. However, Northwestern is currently toast, while a pair of games this season were needed to keep Michigan State from being left behind.

Rest of college football

This is where things get dicey. There are 32 slots locked in by the SEC and Big Ten, which is half.

Because of of the 2024 ratings, there are 13 more schools that will move on, lead by Colorado and its Deion Sanders powered ratings at 3.55 million, followed by Notre Dame at a distant second with 2.51 million.

Surprisingly, Navy and Army sneak in also with 1.25 million and 1.22 million respectively. That brings the total to 45, leaving only 15 teams to qualify.

That pushes things to the current list of teams that have hit the 1 million viewer mark at least twice this season. That adds another service academy with Air Force and SMU barely makes it, despite an embarrassing 1.5 million who watched the Ponies stun Miami in Dallas in their biggest ratings push by a long shot.

The biggest shocker on the list is South Florida. The Bulls pulled 2 million for their upset of Boise State in the season opener, then floored advertisers with 1.1 million watching them battle North Texas on a Friday night, many of whom were Arkansas fans checking out Eric Morris.

Meanwhile, only six Big 12 schools qualified on 2024 ratings and Arizona State wasn't close to being among them, which was shocking given their magical run to the playoffs with star running back Cam Skattebo.

This season's ratings added a financially refurbished Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, West Virginia, and lastly, Arizona State. That leaves the ACC still left to be explored.

Only Miami, leading the way with 2.4 million per game last season, followed by Georgia Tech, Clemson and lastly, Florida State meet the initial qualifications. Beyond them, Wake Forest, NC State, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Cal, Duke and North Carolina gain consideration from this year's ratings.

Unfortunately, that's seven schools, which is one more than needed. So, the four lowest programs that got in on the second criteria will have their 2024 ratings plus their average wins for the past three completed seasons averaged together to determine who will be eliminated.

This give us those final ACC schools, the final Big 12 schools, South Florida and Northwestern. First off, it should be noted how much the Big 12 dominated the ACC in terms of ratings.

The difference was dramatic with West Virginia leading all programs that needed the second criteria to get in with right at 800,000 views per game while the other qualifiers for the conference were nowhere close to being in danger.

Meanwhile, the ACC is struggling mightily in ratings. Even South Florida with its lowly 390,000 viewers in 2024, before their spotlight run this season, dwarfs what a good chunk of the ACC is putting out.

The entire bottom four would be ACC teams if it weren't for Air Force. That being said, Wake Forest and North Carolina join the finalists for being excluded, SMU narrowly joining the group.

Wins over past three seasons:
1. SMU - 29
2. Air Force - 24
3. North Carolina - 23
4. Wake Forest - 16

Ratings in 2024:
1. SMU - 341,000
2. North Carolina - 328,000
3. Wake Forest - 292,000
4. Air Force - 135,000

Average placement:
1. SMU - 1
2. North Carolina - 2.5
3. Air Force - 3
4. Wake Forest - 3.5

Therefore, Wake Forest will be the final teams dropped from the list of programs moving on to the super conference. That leaves a league picture that looks something like this.

College football breaks into the following divisions in what would be the initial super conference in 2030, creating a bidding war for television rights that would begin to push much closer to what the NFL currently receives with all the fluff gone.

Big Ten East

Army
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Maryland
Miami
Navy
NC State
North Carolina
West Virginia

Big Ten Central

Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Pitt
Wisconsin

Big Ten West

Cal
Iowa
Iowa St.
Minnesota
Nebraska
Oregon
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington

SEC East

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Kentucky
South Carolina
South Florida
Tennessee
Virginia Tech

SEC Central

Arkansas
Houston
Kansas
Kansas St.
LSU
Ole Miss
SMU
TCU
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt

SEC West

Air Force
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Utah

The only teams that might have a beef with the alignment is Iowa and maybe Minnesota, but that's because there just aren't enough good teams out west to properly fill a 10-team division. Should Mississippi State draw 1 million or more with the Egg Bowl, that would kick Air Force out, TCU would move to the SEC West and the Bulldogs would join Arkansas, Ole Miss and LSU in the SEC Central.

Notable teams that didn't qualify

Mississippi State
Louisville
Purdue
Northwestern
Boston College
Virginia
Rutgers
Washington St.
Oregon St.
Baylor
Cincinnati
Central Florida (UCF)
Boise St.

SEC