Weather will play huge role in Arkansas, Texas A&M's return to campus

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — When fans first looked at the 2025 schedule, one thing that got them excited was the idea Texas A&M had to come to Northwest Arkansas and face the Hogs in front of a packed house of rabid Razorbacks fans.

As of this morning, it looks like that's not going to happen and it has nothing to do with the current coaching situation or four-game losing streak. Instead, it looks like a steady stream of thunderstorms and rain will have the Aggies taking the field in front of a heavily muted Arkansas crowd.

A cold front is going to collide with southern winds carrying lots of moisture, generating thunderstorms in the morning that will hang over Fayetteville until around 5 p.m. before it gives way to just rain.

Storms are expected to be especially heavy right before kick-off with winds averaging between 13-14 mph. From 10 a.m. until some point in the 4 p.m. hour the chance of storms averages around just over 90%.

NCAA guidelines require teams to wait for 30 continuous minutes after any lightning strikes that took place within an eight to 10 mile radius before resuming play. There is also often a warm-up period granted to teams once an official restart time is designated.

That means odds are high the Razorbacks won't take the field until 5:30 p.m. (current adjusted start time is 4:30 p.m.), which would technically provide Arkansas fans their first and only evening home game at a point in the season fans would want to play at night. The season finale against Missouri is a night game, but not at a point in the season when anyone wants to be playing under the lights.

If Arkansas and Texas A&M get up and running by 5:30 p.m., it's going to be in the rain. Showers were initially expected to hold all the way to midnight, which would dampen the crowd both literally and figuratively, but that has been dialed back this morning to small spits of rain for much of the second half, if any after the first half hour or so of the game.

The number of fans actually in seats are expected to be low once things get going. As they squint through the water dripping off the hoods of their hastily purchased red and white ponchos, their voices and claps will be muted by the plastic protecting them.

Ball security will be at a premium under the circumstances. Currently that statistic falls heavily in favor of the Aggies.

However, when it comes to the quarterbacks, both Arkansas' Taylen Green and Texas A&M's Marcel Reed tend to have moments in the game where they forget how to properly carry the ball while running.

Instead, they find themselves holding the ball in similar fashion to a young man in junior high trying to prove to his buddies he can palm a basketball. If that's the case, there will be big, game-swinging turnovers in the early going.

Coming into Saturday's game, Arkansas averages 218.2 yards per game for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. However, that's under perfect conditions without the defense knowing for sure a run play is likely coming.

In what may be a surprise to Razorbacks fans, the Hogs give up 184 yards per game for an average of 4.8 yards per game, which means head coach Bobby Petrino's offense is racking up a sizable advantage in the run game in comparison to the team's defense.

Quarterback Taylen Green averages 84 yards per game while starting running back Mike Washington puts up 87.3 yards per game. Back-up running back Braylen Russell, whose tremendous size and physical style could provide an edge on the drenched field turf provided he willing to run straight ahead, averages 5.3 yards per touch.

As for Texas A&M, the Aggies put up 265.2 yards per game while giving up 191.2 yards despite having a powerful defensive line anchored by defensive end Cashius Howell. Marcel Reed, much like Green, can generate a lot of offense in the running game from the quarterback position.

However, the one caveat here is the Aggies recently lost star running back Le'Veon Moss to an ankle injury against Florida. Now, everyone knows Texas A&M has a quality back-up in running back Reuben Owens who is more of a 1.b rather than a No. 2 back.

He is only 62 yards shy of Moss for the team lead in rushing and has a slight edge in yards per carry at 5.8 yards per touch. Since Reed isn't as prolific of a runner as Green, a loss of 43% of the Aggies' rushing attack from players who could be considered basically starters is a major red flag.

If Arkansas gets through the game healthy, the large number of carries per game will begin to swing the game in their favor late if they can keep things close early. Two quality backs and a high production running quarterback against a single running back and a quarterback who only provides some relief in the rushing attack should pull the game the Razorbacks' way as the fourth quarter rolls along.

The last memorable game Arkansas had in the rain that featured the Hogs facing an SEC rival was in 2000 against LSU when running back Brandon Holmes loaded the Razorbacks onto his shoulders and carried the ball 42 times to a win.

Holmes put up 143 yards and scored the only offensive touchdown of the game as the Hogs took the rivalry game to close the season.

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