All Hogs

National predictions for Arkansas Razorbacks' game against Auburn

What analytical models say about Hogs' chances against struggling Tigers?
Jacob Davis|
Arkansas Razorbacks running back Mike Washington runs against the Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark.
Arkansas Razorbacks running back Mike Washington runs against the Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

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Arkansas RazorbacksAuburn Tigers

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas goes into Week 9 of the college football season on a five-game losing streak with hopes of knocking its first SEC opponent.

The Razorbacks have lost back-to-back games by one possession with hardly a single ounce of defense being played.

Arkansas has given up a shade under 500 yards per game since the firing of former head coach Sam Pittman, but the offense continues to hum like nothing ever took place.

In conference play, the Razorbacks average 36 points and 516 yards per game, but things could slow down a bit against Auburn's defense led by someone Petrino is very familiar with in D.J. Durkin.

One interesting tidbit is the road team has come away victorious in each of the previous four games dating back to 2021, and it's been a decade since the Razorbacks have beaten Auburn inside Razorback Stadium.

Auburn Tigers coach Hugh Freeze
Auburn Tigers coach Hugh Freeze reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Missouri Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. | John Reed-Imagn Images

The 2015 meeting featured four overtimes with wide receiver Drew Morgan spinning like a top into the endzone for the go-ahead touchdown. Running back Kody Walker sealed the Razorbacks' fate by converting a two-point conversion on the next play, winning 54-46.

The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Arkansas a 50.7% chance of defeating Auburn this Saturday. If the Razorbacks are able to pull off the victory, then it could only place more fire under the seat of third-year coach Hugh Freeze, who's seen his team lose three games this season by one possession.

Petrino is aware of his offense's lack of protection for quarterback Taylen Green at times. Durkin's defense is effective in multiple formations and isn't afraid to bring pressure.

"They’re a really good defensive team," Petrino said Monday. "They’ve got good outside edge rushers, they’re firm inside, the linebackers play fast, their secondary’s not afraid to play man coverage. Very familiar with their defense. They’re very, very well-coached. We went against that defense every day in practice before.

"They do a great job in their schemes and what they do. It’s going to be a great challenge for our offense. We’ve got to be able to run the football and be patient, stay away from third-and-long, third-and-extra long, where they can tee-off their pass rushers. So I think we have to be efficient. We have to really be efficient on first down."

What ESPN Thinks

Despite Auburn's 3-4 (0-4 SEC) start, ESPN's Bill Connelly has the Tigers' ranked No. 30 in his SP+ ratings this week. The Razorbacks are ranked No. 41 with a 2-5 (0-3 SEC) record, and are only 1-of-4 FBS teams inside the Top 50 with more than four losses (Auburn, Florida State and Clemson).

The Tigers' rank No. 11 in the SEC and No. 23, according to ESPN's Football Power Index which seems to be quite a bit higher than Connelly's rating system.

Most sports gaming sites have Arkansas favored by a slim one-point margin going into this weekend's game, but Bill Connelly's SP+ metric gives Auburn a 0.3 point edge in a coin flip. The projected final score is 28-28.

It's worth noting that his initial model predicted the correct final score of Arkansas' game at Memphis last month, 32-31.

Arkansas Razorbacks interim head coach Bobby Petrino on the sidelines against the Texas A&M Aggies
Arkansas Razorbacks interim head coach Bobby Petrino on the sidelines against the Texas A&M Aggies at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Texas A&M
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Oklahoma
8. Missouri
9. Vanderbilt
10. LSU
11. Auburn
12. Florida
13. Arkansas
14. South Carolina
15. Mississippi State
16. Kentucky

For Arkansas, its overall record projection has taken a steep nosedive from a 7-5 record to 4-8 since its five game losing streak began.

Just last month, the Razorbacks nearly had an 80% chance of reaching bowl eligibility for the fifth time in six seasons, but now just have 6.6% chance of winning six games.

Data no longer supports the idea that Arkansas can contend for a College Football Playoffs even if it wins is final five games of the season.

What Freeze is Saying About Arkansas Game

If there has been one surprise during Freeze's tenure at Auburn it's been his inability to find stability behind center.

Auburn Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold
Auburn Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold (11) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Missouri Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. | John Reed-Imagn Images

Freeze anticipates Jackson Arnold, Deuce Knight and Ashton Daniels will be "ready to play" Saturday against the Razorbacks struggling defense.

"Deuce is, man, he's handled everything extremely well. He's so talented and young, and he knows his time is coming,” Freeze said. “
It's just a matter of when. But yeah, we will have all three ready to play, including Deuce and Ashton and Jackson."

Auburn has lost several heartbreakers as Freeze's offenses have stalled throughout the second half. Should things stall once again, there could be changes such as Daniels seeing snaps for the first time since transferring from Stanford.

“As well as Jackson played in the first half of the last two games, you have to start looking at everything of, alright, why do we not have the winning ways and are sitting here feeling like we do," Freeze said. "And so we are going to get he and Ashton a lot of reps and kind of see where it goes from there.

"I would say the expectation is for Jackson to start. He has led us on two scoring drives to start the last two games and, hopefully, that is what happens in this one also. We’ll go day to day, but that is the expectation.”

The Razorbacks have one of the top offenses in the country and are humming with a strong average of 7.7 yards per play, which rivals several championship offenses in recent seasons.

“I don’t have any concerns other than that we’re facing one of the more talented offenses I’ve seen," Freeze said Monday. "I watched [Arkansas] this morning and they’re really talented on offense. (Taylen) Green is playing at an extremely high level, has a really good running back, tight ends, receivers and is making those plays that are not designed at a high level.

"We need to improve that this week for sure and we have to stay in coverage when we’re in coverage because [Green] will rip it over your head.”

Game Information

Auburn at Arkansas

Kickoff Time: 11:45 p.m.
Venue: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
TV Channel: SEC Network
Radio: Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network
Series Record: Auburn leads 20-13-1

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Jacob Davis
JACOB DAVIS

Jacob Davis is a reporter for Arkansas Razorbacks on SI, with a decade of experience covering high school and transfer portal recruiting. He has previously worked at Rivals, Saturday Down South, SB Nation and hosted podcasts with Bleav Podcast Network where his show was a finalist for podcast of the year. Native of El Dorado, he currently resides in Central Arkansas with his wife and daughter.

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