National predictions for Arkansas Razorbacks' game against rival Texas A&M

Hogs underdogs again, looking for monumental upset of Aggies in SEC play

Arkansas Razorbacks defensive back Larry Worth during game against Notre Dame at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas goes into Week 8 of the college football season on a four-game losing streak with hopes of knocking off a Top 5 team at home for the second straight year.

The Razorbacks welcome longtime rival Texas A&M to town for the first time since 2013, but have interim coach Bobby Petrino at the helm who helped lead the team to three straight victories in the Southwest Classic.

Now, with the game going to a home-and-home setting instead of Jerry's World in Arlington, Texas maybe things can go back to normal for Arkansas and end the long struggle with the Aggies.

While Petrino goes into his second game at the head spot, Arkansas will have every opportunity over the next two weeks to turn the season back around.

Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino on the field during warmups before they faced the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Texas A&M a 69.9% chance to walk into Razorback Stadium Saturday afternoon and defeat an inspired Arkansas team looking to notch its first victory in the SEC win column.

Petrino is a believer in his group of Razorbacks, a team that's lost three games by one possession this season, but just needs a break or two to make noise in what's been a lost year so far.

"Obviously, we gave up some things, but we also made plays to give us a chance to win," Petrino said following the loss to Tennessee. "So, now we just got to stick together and continue to practice and prepare the way that we did these last two weeks, probably week. But we're right there. We've just got to find a way to get over the hump."

In order for the Razorbacks to come out victorious this weekend, the defense must find a way to slow down a prolific Aggies' offensive attack spearheaded by quarterback Marcel Reed.

Defensively, Texas A&M presents Arkansas' offensive line some issues, recording 21 sacks, which is good for No. 5 nationally. The Razorbacks experienced line has given up 11 sacks this season, including five against Tennessee's sophisticated approach last weekend.

What ESPN Thinks

The Aggies rank No. 4 in the SEC and No. 11 by ESPN, which is quite a bit behind its AP poll ranking of No. 4 nationally behind Ohio State, Miami and Indiana.

Most sports gaming sites have the Texas A&M favored by (-8.5) points this weekend and Bill Connelly's SP+ metric backs that up with a projected score of 34-25.

Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed (10) looks to pass the ball during the first half against the Florida Gators at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

His initial model predicted the correct final score of Arkansas' game at Memphis last month, 32-31.

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Texas A&M
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Vanderbilt
9. LSU
10. Oklahoma
11. Auburn
12. Florida
13. South Carolina
14. Arkansas
15. Mississippi State
16. Kentucky

For Arkansas, its overall record projection has taken a steep nosedive from a 7-5 record to 4-8 following the firing of Pittman.

Just last month, the Razorbacks nearly had an 80% chance of reaching bowl eligibility for the fifth time in six seasons, but now just have 12.4% chance of winning six games.

Arkansas still holds a slim shot at making the College Football Playoffs with just a 0.1% chance, which is down from 0.2% prior to its loss to Tennessee.

What Elko's Saying About Arkansas

Second-year Aggies' coach Mike Elko has shown respect for Petrino's ability to always find a way to draw up successful offenses and continue to be effective as a play caller even through all the changes in college football.

"It's really multiple," Elko said. "It's really well-thought-out. He comes at you with a lot of personnel groupings. He's been calling plays for a really long time, and to be able to do that, you've got to have a really good comfort in what you want to do and how you do it."

Texas A&M Aggies coach Mike Elko looks on prior to the game against the Florida Gators at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Petrino also made headlines following the dismissal of Sam Pittman by firing defensive coordinator Travis Williams, co-defensive coordinator Marcus Woodson and defensive line coach Deke Adams.

The decision to make such bold moves equated to keeping Tennessee 17 points below its season average while making key stops in the second half to nearly pull off an upset in Knoxville.

Elko is aware of the change and is desperately trying to figure things out to avoid having a season-changing loss in October.

"This is a first for me," Elko said. "This is the first time I've seen a defense completely shift gears midseason. We had to do this one like the opener a little bit and try to identify things from the coordinator's past."

Game Information

Texas A&M at Arkansas

Kickoff Time: 2:30 p.m.
Venue: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
TV Channel: ESPN
Radio: Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network
Series Record: Arkansas leads 42-36-3