National predictions of Arkansas' game against Tennessee pretty one-sided

Razorbacks are big underdogs this weekend following two weeks of staff changes

Arkansas Razorbacks running back Mike Washington celebrates after scoring against the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss. | Ted McClenning-allHOGS Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas goes into Week Seven of the college football season with a 2-3 record and an old face pacing the sideline.

Interim coach Bobby Petrino takes the reins of a Razorbacks program where he still feels he has unfinished business to take care of.

“I felt like I had a lot of unfinished business here, and I still feel that way,” Petrino told On3's Chris Low. “I left a lot of friends here and a lot of people I love the first time, and I let them all down. This is a chance to help improve a football program we all love.”

While Petrino's rehiring to the head spot is certainly a redemption story, ESPN's Football Power Index rankings reveal the Razorbacks will fall short to the Volunteers.

Arkansas is given just a 17.4% chance of marching into Neyland Stadium to upset No. 12 Tennessee led by transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar.

He has passed for 1,459 passing yards and thrown for 13 touchdowns this season to keep coach Josh Heupel's humming.

The Razorbacks' defense have struggled as a unit, but it's pass defense has been a bit passive allowing 257 passing yards per game (No. 111 FBS) and 29 plays of 20+ yards (No. 130 FBS).

Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joey Aguilar (6) throws the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Vols' wide receiver, Chris Brazzell, has caught 31 passes for 531 yards and seven touchdowns this season and presents the Razorbacks a massive challenge to shutdown this Saturday.

Petrino's offense, led by quarterback Taylen Green, has been explosive in the first half, but haven't been able to carry that same energy into the second half.

With their playcaller back on the sideline there is some hope the Razorbacks can figure thing out and bring more production starting in the third quarter.

 "We need to continue to play with the same energy and excitement and detail that we have in the first half. We’ve got to come out of the locker room with more energy. We’ve got to run the ball better in the third quarter.

"One of the issues has been to be able to run the ball with the same efficiency in the third quarter that we did in the first two quarters. We’re still doing a good job of converting third downs, which helps a lot, but we’ve got to do a better job of running the ball in the third quarter."

Arkansas has seen it's stock drop considerably since its 2-0 start to the season, but with seven games left on the schedule there is still left to play after dropping to No. 411 in ESPN's Football Power Index ratings.

What ESPN Thinks

Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino during a fall camp practice on the outdoor practice fields in Fayetteville, Ark. | Andy Hodges-allHOGS Images

The Volunteers rank No. 5 in the SEC and No. 11 by ESPN, which is one spot ahead of its AP Top 25 ranking.

Most sports gaming sites have Tennessee favored by (-11.5) points this weekend and Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings back that up with a projected score of 38-24.

His initial model predicted the correct final score of Arkansas' game at Memphis last month, 32-31.

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ole Miss
4. Texas
5. Tennessee
6. Texas A&M
7. Oklahoma
8. Vanderbilt
9. LSU
10. Missouri
11. Auburn
12. Florida
13. South Carolina
14. Arkansas
15. Mississippi State
16. Kentucky

For Arkansas, its overall record projection has taken a steep nosedive from a 7-5 record to 4-8 following the firing of Pittman.

Just last month, the Razorbacks nearly had an 80% chance of reaching bowl eligibility for the fifth time in six seasons, but now just have 13% chance of winning six games.

Due to just playing one SEC game to this point in the season, Arkansas still has a shot at winning a conference title at 0.1% which gives them a 0.2% chance of making the College Football Playoffs.

What Heupel's Saying About Arkansas

The fifth-year Tennessee coach shared an admiration for the Razorbacks' interim coach earlier this week. He knows his defense must be on its toes due to Arkansas' ability to be multiple on offense.

“Seen him from afar for the most part. Coach Petrino has done a great job as a head coach and as an offensive mind," Heupel said. "They’re going to stress you. Does a great job with the run game. With the quarterback they have now, the quarterback run game being a part of that. He’s always done a good job throwing the football down the field and you’re going to see a lot of concepts from them.

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel during a NCAA football game between Tennessee and UAB at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., September 20, 2025. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"You have to handle motions, shifts, trades, all of that. Communication will be really important in this football game for us defensively.”

With Petrino's defensive staff changes, Huepel acknowledges how things could change now that Chris Wilson takes defensive play calling duties and how aggressive Arkansas' defensive line could be with new assistant Jay Hayes in charge.

“It can change a bunch," Heupel said. "Last year, different defensive structure from than anything they had shown presents itself in that game. Certainly, they have the opportunity to be a lot different than they’ve been. For us, we’ve seen a lot of different structures.

"We’ve got to be able to adjust. Target guys the right way in our run game, in our protections and understand what we’re seeing from the secondary. Quarterback having his eyes in the right place, but wide receivers reading things and being in the right spot, too.”

Game Information

Arkansas at Tennessee

Kickoff Time: 3:15 p.m. CT
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
TV Channel: SEC Network
Radio: Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network
Series Record: Tennessee leads 13-7