All Hogs

Upset alert? Analytics give Arkansas edge in clash with Notre Dame

After a trap game loss to Memphis, Arkansas eyes bounce-back opportunity against No. 22 Irish at Razorback Stadium.
Taylor Hodges|
Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) scrambles with the ball against the Memphis Tigers during the second half at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) scrambles with the ball against the Memphis Tigers during the second half at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

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Arkansas Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The excitement filling Arkansas’s sails was sucked out the instant the ball was knocked out of Mike Washington Jr.’s hands just yards away from a game-winning touchdown.

But it’s still early enough in the season for the wind to pick up and carry the Razorbacks to a bowl game.

Yes, the Razorbacks fell victim to a trap game it should’ve won.

That loss is made even more painful considering that the loss to Ole Miss the week before played in almost the exact same way.

The fan base is angry, Taylen Green’s Heisman campaign ended before it really got going and Sam Pittman’s coaching seat is hotter than a car seat on a hot summer day.

“It'd be kind of hard to have more pressure,” Pittman said at his Monday press conference. “I've kind of had this same type pressure for, I don't know, three years now. It seems like 40, but I think it's been about three.”

And all of that pressure is deserved. However, there is actually a benefit to losing a trap game:
An opportunity to wash away the memories of the trap game loss is coming very soon.

That’s what Arkansas gets this week when No. 22 Notre Dame comes to Fayetteville, Ark.

“The only way we can win people that don't believe in us or get some more positive thoughts about our program is to win ballgames,” Pittman said. “And we have a great opportunity here.”

And a lot of people smarter than yours truly see it as very close game. In fact, Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections favor the Razorbacks.

Those SP+ projections give Arkansas a win probability of 55 percent and a projected margin of victory of 2.2 points. (Note: SP+ is a metric created by Connelly that’s described as “simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”)

It’s very close, but anything favoring the Razorbacks should give some hope to the fanbase.

“We need to take care of the football, and we can win games,” Pittman said. “So, I'm not trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. The public will, but we've got a good team.”

The smart people who make the betting lines still favor the Fighting Irish, though. FanDuel’s Sportsbook has Notre Dame listed (as of 1 p.m. Tuesday) as a 4.5-point favorite.

ESPN’s matchup predictor (at the same time listed above) gives Notre Dame a 56.4 percent chance to win its first-ever meeting against the Razorbacks.

That’s still a great chance for Arkansas to pull off the upset.

“We're excited about this game,” Pittman said. “We obviously think we have a great chance to win the game, and if (fans) want to see Notre Dame, they ought to get to the game, and they'll see a really good Arkansas team as well.”

For those unable to get to the game in-person, here’s everything you need to know follow along:

How to Watch: No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas

Who: No. 22 Notre Dame (1-2) at Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2, 0-1 SEC)
When: 11 a.m., Saturday
Where: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark.
TV: ABC
Radio: Live Radio
Stats: Live Stats
Series History: First meeting
Last Meeting: n/a
Last time out, Razorbacks: lost to Memphis, 32-31
Last time out, Fighting Irish: def. Purdue, 56-30

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas, but he was taken to Razorback pep rallies at Billy Bob's Texas in Fort Worth before he could walk. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

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