All Hogs

Conditions may be lining up to keep Hogs powerful two-win team

Auburn stood little chance against Arkansas Razorbacks, then the weather mean decided to throw in their two cents
Kent Smith|
Arkansas Razorbacks wide receiver Andrew Armstrong hauls in a pass from KJ Jefferson against the Auburn Tigers last November in a game at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark.
Arkansas Razorbacks wide receiver Andrew Armstrong hauls in a pass from KJ Jefferson against the Auburn Tigers last November in a game at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Ted McClenning-allHOGS Images

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Arkansas RazorbacksAuburn Tigers

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — This weekend may be proof the world is against the Arkansas Razorbacks.

In a season where the Hogs have just enough talent to have made the college football playoffs and stage a Heisman campaign for quarterback Taylen Green, freak plays and an inability by the defense to mentally bring out its peak performance each week have, instead, provided Arkansas fans with possibly the greatest two-win team in the history of college football.

However, that is supposed to end this weekend. Hugh Freeze has Auburn in total disarray with an offense that looks relatively talented individually, but as a team, plays football as if the field is layered on top with a glue trap.

The Razorbacks average over 20 points per game more in SEC play than the Tigers, meaning even a defense that has proven to be unable to stop quality College Football Playoff level offenses should be able to let Auburn self destruct just enough to pull out the win.

However, those who have dared click over to the Weather Channel website for a quick second have seen a wrench thrown into the mess. While storms were expected to cause delays last week, there were holes in the storms that allowed play without pouring rain.

What eventually developed was an ending of storms with no rain to follow. However, instead of storms, this weekend is forecast to be three days worth of clouds heavy with rain that is expected to fall steadily throughout the weekend.

The result is heavy, wet balls for the Arkansas offense and a good reason to stop wasting time on the passing game for Freeze's Tigers. The one thing Auburn does especially well is run the ball.

In fact, the greatest strength of former 5-star quarterback Jackson Arnold is his ability to produce on designed running plays. Add in running back Jeremiah Cobb, who is small in stature, but has deceptive strength and an amazing low center of gravity that keeps him upright on unique cuts, and there is a lot to fear from the Tigers running game.

The Hogs will especially be tested on the edges as Freeze makes every player who happens to wander into the backfield a potential runner. If wide receivers Malcolm Simmons or Eric Singleton go in motion, there's a good chance they are going to take a hand-off at some point.

Meanwhile, although it actually helps Auburn to be locked in on one dimension, if Arkansas gets stuck with just the running game, it will be a disaster. It's the one premise in which the Tigers have a legitimate chance of keeping up with the Hogs.

The one promising note is the types of plays that have been effective against Auburn as of late. It seems ironic because the power of the defensive line is one of the few strengths for the Tigers, but plays that develop behind or near the line of scrimmage are where teams are having success.

As a disclaimer, the Arkansas offensive line is going to have a rough day similar to what it faced against Texas A&M, which was a painful, bruising evening of work. However, there is solace in knowing if they can hold for the briefest of time, there is hope for victory.

Eventually, running lanes will come open. Also, screens to the sideline behind the line of scrimmage with blockers ahead to pick off members of the secondary and late arriving linebackers open up big plays.

This also causes linebackers and members of the secondary playing up to cheat at times, opening short throws on crossing patterns that turn into big plays. Tight ends especially generate an opportunity to get forgotten and find open space just a few yards directly in front of quarterback Taylen Green.

Even in rainy conditions, assuming the Razorbacks know which shoes work best in slick weather on the stadium turf, there should be plenty of opportunity to move the ball downfield at a solid pace. The question is just whether they can punch it in once the Hogs cross into the red zone.

There's a chance this comes down to special teams, in particular the field goal game. In this case, Arkansas has the advantage if freshman kicker Scott Starzyk isn't dealing with rust from lack of use. Unfortunately for head coach Bobby Petrino, he hasn't had the luxury of running his young place kicker out without the gloomy feeling the game is over whether he makes it or not because the defensive performance requires a touchdown with each possession.

That's why he's gone for it on fourth down when it would normally make sense to just kick it and take the points. That's why he has only kicked nine field goals this season, most of which came under former head coach Sam Pittman early in he season.

If special teams coordinator Scott Fountain is wise enough to have his snappers, holders and kickers work with a wet ball for much of the week to prepare for conditions, the scales should tip the Razorbacks' way.

That's because when it comes to kicking, things aren't going well for Auburn as of late. Alex McPherson, who has overcome a horrific medical tale to be able to kick this season, has struggled summoning the power and accuracy needed.

As a result, he missed three crucial kicks that would have provided the Tigers the upset of No. 15 Mizzou at Jordan-Hare Stadium which would have gone a long way toward saving his coach's job. However, he just doesn't look healthy enough to handle the task in ideal conditions.

The extra effort it will take to kick a wet ball, which will be the case to an extent no matter how hard they try to keep the kicking balls dry, will likely be too much for him. That will certainly be the case in kicks over 40 yards.

Of course, fans will find out Saturday how much the weather will serve as an equalizer on Auburn's behalf. If it tips things in favor of the Tigers, where their running game provides the edge in another one-score game, it will just par for the course.

So is the life of Razorbacks fans in a year where they watched a potential playoff team melt into Chad Morris territory with its record. Nothing is more Arkansas than becoming the world's greatest two-win team of all time.

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Kent Smith
KENT SMITH

Kent Smith has been in the world of media and film for nearly 30 years. From Nolan Richardson's final seasons, former Razorback quarterback Clint Stoerner trying to throw to anyone and anything in the blazing heat of Cowboys training camp in Wichita Falls, the first high school and college games after 9/11, to Troy Aikman's retirement and Alex Rodriguez's signing of his quarter billion dollar contract, Smith has been there to report on some of the region's biggest moments. 

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