Feels Like an Oddball Year in SEC West

What are the Arkansas Razorbacks' chances and which unlikely school might get in their way

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Sep 12, 2023 12:33 PM EDT
Original:
Sep 11, 2023

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Plenty of Arkansas fans have been taking screen shots of the SEC standings after the events of the past two weeks. For those who haven't taken time to look, the SEC West standings currently looks like this:

SEC WEST
1. Arkansas 0-0...2-0
2. Auburn 0-0...2-0
3. Miss. St. 0-0...2-0
4. Ole Miss 0-0...2-0
5. Alabama 0-0...1-1
6. LSU 0-0...1-1
7. A&M 0-0...1-1

The Razorbacks definitely won't be at the top of the list after next week because Mississippi State plays LSU in an 11 a.m. game that will probably be the most impactful SEC game of the day. The rest of the SEC West is playing out-of-conference games, so whichever wins automatically jumps to first in the division.

Even still, there's a better than zero chance the top four teams in the division stay the same. Mississippi State and its running attack has more than a puncher's chance to take out LSU. It's just that kind of year. And that's exactly why it's possible for Arkansas to come away with the final SEC West championship.

Losses by LSU to Florida State and Alabama to perennial college football doormat Texas has already driven this season into the "weird year" category. As history would have it, those are the years Arkansas thrives. For instance, in 1995, three years after entering the SEC, the Razorbacks won their first SEC West crown. However, it wasn't as illustrious as one might think. Danny Ford's team finished 8-5 after losing to Florida in the SEC championship game and to North Carolina in a fog filled Carquest Bowl.

In 1998, Houston Nutt's first season, Arkansas won the division, but because Nutt suspended his kicker, the Hogs followed up that heart-breaking Tennessee fumble loss with an even more gut-wrenching 22-21 loss to Mississippi State. That's right, the Razorbacks were a fumble while trying to run out the clock and a suspended field goal kicker from probably playing for and likely winning the national title that Tennessee took home that year.

Instead, the Bulldogs got a piece of the crown and went on to lose to the Volunteers, 24-14. Arkansas finished the year having lost 3-of-4 after Tom Brady's Michigan team pulled away in the closing minutes to win the Citrus Bowl.

Arkansas won the division again in 2002 as part of a 9-5 finish and again in 2006 after going 10-4. That was the only season where the Razorbacks combined double-digit wins with a division championship despite having multiple Top 10 finishes and a pair of double-digit winning seasons since.

It's during these oddball years that Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State get a shot at the division championship. Something goes wrong at Alabama or LSU and Auburn decides to Auburn and the stars align. Every single time that has happened, Arkansas has come away with the SEC West championship. Mississippi State won a share once and Ole Miss once threatened until 4th & 25 happened, but the Razorbacks have always been the oddball winner.

The first ingredient to these odd years is Alabama has to be beatable. Check that box because not only has it already happened, the Tide are 6-3 in their last nine games and came close to being 5-4. The shine has worn off the armor in Tuscaloosa. Alabama may lose two more this season. If that happens, the doors blow wide open.

As for LSU, it was hard to shake visions of the team that barely survived Arkansas at the Razorbacks' worst last season. There was no shock in seeing a Brian Kelly team get smoked by Florida State's Jordan Travis after the Tigers barely held on to beat an Arkansas team led by quarterbacks Cade Fortin and Malik Hornsby while being anchored by America's worst pass defense.

LSU is going to hang up losses like Wal-Mart hangs up clearance signs. That means the biggest threat to a Hogs' division championship other than its own offensive line is Ole Miss.

Initially, that three-game stretch of at Alabama, vs. LSU, and vs. Arkansas was thought to be two games that will determine the SEC West champion followed by the Razorbacks looking to take advantage of a Rebels team that would be beaten up. Perception has changed now. Ole Miss looks like it should beat Alabama and LSU and neither look as physical as they have in the past.

The Rebels should enter the game against Arkansas riding a high and relatively healthy. Provided the Hogs can avoid Bobby Petrino sending them home from Arlington in their own neck brace, there's a good chance the first weekend in October could be the de facto SEC West championship game. Of course, it could be one of those years where the Razorbacks have two losses and Ole Miss's only loss is to Arkansas heading into the final week of the season. Then, in true Rebels fashion, it all comes crashing down with a loss in the Egg Bowl as Arkansas slides in at the last second to claim the right to be the first semi-quality opponent on the Georgia football schedule.

Of course, if it's truly going to be an oddball year, then there's always the outside chance of a three-way tie with Mississippi State. The Bulldogs look like a team that is going to be trouble all season. If Zach Arnett can somehow get his team out of September at 2-1 in the SEC, that three-way tie becomes a real possibility.

It should be fun. It always is when the Arkansas and Mississippi schools get together and mess everything up in the SEC every 7-10 years or so. Things have been normal for too long. Might as well do something different to close things out before Oklahoma and Texas drop in next year.