Behind Enemy Lines: Razorbacks, Bulldogs at Crossroads

Two winless teams duke it to avoid the cellar in the SEC West

Author:
Daniel Shi
Publish date:
Oct 19, 2023 5:22 PM EDT

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — While not SEC powerhouses by any stretch of the imagination, no one could have seen a combined 0-7 record in SEC play ahead of the clash between Arkansas and the Bulldogs. This week, Stefan Krajisnik, Mississippi State beat writer for the Jackson Clarion-Ledger and I talk Zach Arnett, injuries and how a defensive-minded coach has a poor defense.

Note: This interview has been edited for clarity and length

Daniel Shi: Given all the tumultuous things that happened beforehand with the change in coaching (The passing of the late Mike Leach). How has this season lived up to expectations compared to coming into the year?

Stefan Krajisnik: It's safe to say that it's been a season that's been below expectations so far for a lot of fans. Yes, there was a change in the coaching staff and most of that happening on the offensive side and changing in the offensive game plan. Going away from the air raid, but at the same time, you were returning a lot of older players, a lot of sixth-year, fifth-year guys, especially on defense that gave you confidence that this team, despite many changes, had the opportunity to be good. Coming off a big nine-win season last year, a win in the Egg Bowl, a win in the ReliaQuest Bowl, you had a lot of momentum for this staff going into this year, even with Zach Arnett being a first-year coach. So far, the 3-3 record, that's where I predicted Mississippi State to be. I'm sure a lot of other people predicted them to be 3-3 going into the second half of the season, but it hasn't looked the part. You get blown out by an LSU team that now we're starting to see is it's not the LSU team maybe we thought they were coming into this year. You lose at South Carolina (which) looked like a decent loss at the time, but now you see Florida go in there and pick up a win and you see that there are holes in the South Carolina team that you weren't able to take advantage of. You come back here and you lose to Alabama. It's a season where on the field, because of the veteran leadership on this team, many people expected, myself included, this Mississippi State team to be a bit better. Now there's a little bit of a shift in confidence going into the second half, at least from the outside. I'm sure internally they still feel confident they can turn things around. Definitely to this point, through the midway point of the season for State, it's been a bit of a letdown and there's a lot on the plate for Arnett and his coaching staff to turn it around in the second half.

DS: We'll start with Arnett since we've already touched on him. Given how open Mike Leach was externally, and then some of the things that Arnett has just kept close to his chest, what's been the vibe covering this team and being around the team daily?

SK: It's been different. It's been different just because Mike Leach was an iconic figure in college football. He was also someone who had been around for decades. He knows what it's like to run a program, to be a head coach. He didn't give a lot away in press conferences, but they were entertaining and he did things his way. I think Arnett is trying to find his footing and see what his identity is as a head coach. There's been a lot of questions surrounding the team and the struggle in recruiting and things of that nature. It's definitely a different vibe and definitely one of a program that feels like it's more rebuilding than it is continuing momentum. That's not where this team was expected to be this year. As I mentioned before, the veterans on the roster, so it's been different. I don't want to say it's been bad covering this team. I've enjoyed it. I've enjoyed working with Arnett and getting to cover him. It's been different just because you can tell it's a program that's got a staff that's trying to learn some things, figure things out as they go of how they want to build a program and establish their footing in the SEC. It's been a struggle for them early on and we'll see how it changes, whether it be the second half of this season or moving forward.

DS: One thing that is mind-numbingly similar between these two programs is that the squads are struggling most in their coaches' main area of expertise (Arnett was the DC at Mississippi State from 2018 to 2022). What's gone wrong for the Bulldog Defense?

SK: To put it in short terms, it's everything. Everything has gone wrong for this team defensively. They've had injuries upfront on defense that really haven't helped, but at the same time, it's a team that the past couple of years has struggled to get consistency upfront, which is surprising. You look at the history of Mississippi State and guys like Montez Sweat, Fletcher Cox, Jeffrey Simmons, Chris Jones that have come through his program and have had success at the NFL level. Mississippi State has spent a lot of its off-season talking about being D-Line U and they're not getting enough up front to really get consistent pressure on quarterbacks. That's number one. It starts up front. Number two at linebacker, you have Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson. Veteran guys who are probably at the end of this year (are) going to be number one and number two in the SEC in tackles, just like they were last season. They’re experienced guys, but they haven't found someone at that linebacker spot who can be that multidimensional player of being a traditional linebacker, but also kind of putting his hand on the ground and coming and putting some pressure on the quarterback. They haven't found that guy at that level. The secondary lost a lot with four starters being gone. Emmanuel Forbes being top among those (1st round pick by the Commanders). He had the record for pick-sixes in FBS history, but you haven't found enough production from guys who were behind those starters who have stepped into these bigger roles to give you enough in the secondary. You can go by level and say what the holes have been with this defense for Mississippi State, and I think that's the number one reason that people are concerned about where this program is in year one under Arnett is because, as you said, that's his expertise. That was the area that, while losing some players, also returned a lot of veterans and was supposed to be the rock while this offense figured its way out. That really hasn’t been the case.

DS: Is the Arkansas offensive line finally the opening that the Bulldogs have been looking for?

SK: I think it's an opportunity. If you look at the sack numbers, State is in the middle of the pack in the SEC in terms of getting sacks. They've done a good job of that, especially early in games of getting pressure, but I think because of some of that depth on the defensive line that I alluded to, as the game goes on, I think you're seeing some fatigue. I think you're seeing some guys struggling to be able to provide something for a full game. I think that's where the holes have been right now. It's a great opportunity, but also if they're getting exhausted as the game goes on and they don't have a lot of depth, it might not matter if you get into the backfield because it's going to be hard to bring down KJ Jefferson if you're not at that peak level. We saw what he did the other day against Alabama. He's got strength that few quarterbacks do, and he's a hard guy to bring down. There's going to be an opportunity with this offensive line for sure, but I'm sure the Arkansas offensive line is looking at this defensive front and saying the same thing to themselves. Something has got to give.

DS: That’s a pretty good broader theme of the game. Something's got to give. Somebody's got to win an SEC game

SK: No doubt. I think the dog I got barking here probably exudes what a lot of fans are feeling at this point. It's struggles to get SEC wins for two programs that probably had higher expectations than maybe they were given nationally. Something's got to give someone's got to step up, but you can't really overlook how big of a game this is for both teams. Whoever walks away with the loss in this game is going to be in a pretty tough spot.

DS: Arnett has said close to nothing about whether Will Rogers and Jo'Quavious Marks “Woody” are going to play. Comparing, the two quarterbacks, which one gives Mississippi State the best shot to hang in there?

SK: I still think it's Rogers at this point. We haven't really seen Mike Wright in that full capacity of being a starter at Mississippi State, and we've seen him struggle a lot of times at Vanderbilt. I trust Rogers more to be the starter with Wright in packages. That being said, though, we don't know who the starter is going to be Saturday. Arnett, as you mentioned has not really revealed much at all. Based on what the injury looked like when Rogers went down, I'd be surprised if he played this quickly since that injury, but I'm not a doctor. I'm not behind closed doors with the team to know exactly. What I will say though, is I think Arkansas, unless they have some intel on who's starting is in a bit of a tough spot. I think the two quarterbacks are so different. If Rogers is playing, you're anticipating him throwing the ball more often than not, along with Wright coming in for packages. If Wright’s the one that's starting, it's a lot different. You're going to see a lot more run-heavy team. I think out of the 66 snaps that Mike Wright has played this year, 53 have been running plays. It's going to be tough for Arkansas to prepare. I'm going to be interested to see early in the game if State can maybe take advantage of it. If it is Mike Wright, can they take advantage of maybe throwing things off a bit and making Arkansas uncomfortable early in that contest?

DS: Is the OC Kevin Barbay also learning as he goes?

SK: I think you're seeing the quarterback and Barbay both learning off each other. When you had Leach, you knew what the offense was going to be. It was going to be the air raid and he was going to find a roster that fit that. With Barbay, he was looking more to implement an offense that was going to fit whatever roster was there. I think they felt with Rogers and Wright in packages that they could do different things that maybe didn't work early in the year, especially in that game against LSU. They had some struggles and things of that nature. I think now, as they're starting to get more comfortable, you saw this offense take some steps forward. We'll see what that looks like depending on Rogers's status, but I think with the offensive coordinator it's been a mix of both sides learning off each other a bit him and the players on the offense.

DS: Operating under the assumption that Wright is the starter, who can they use as offensive weapons in the receiving game so they do not become one-dimensional?

SK: They’ve got guys in the wide receiver room that are explosive. Zavion Thomas, Lideatrick “Tulu” Griffin. They make impacts in the return games, whether it be kick returns or punt returns, but they also provide a lot in terms of the receiving game as well, I think you're going to see a ton of that from them, getting involved early. You might see direct handoffs. We might see some explosive shots down the field and maybe Wright’s running can draw the defense in and provide some explosive opportunities. Look for those two guys at receiver to be the guy that Wright turns to a bit more in the passing game.

DS: Who else is behind Marks in this backfield?

SK: The number two guy has been Jeffery Pittman, but he's been banged up well as well. We don't really know who's available there. Keep an eye on true freshman Seth Davis. He had a really good fall camp and struggled a little bit, maybe early on but progressed and has an opportunity to be the guy. Keyvone Lee is a transfer from Penn State, who they also have high hopes for being able to provide. They've got decent depth at running back. They got four or five guys that they feel comfortable in at the position, and that's why they're in a spot now where maybe if the top two guys are down they have other options. We'll see on Saturday who ends up being the starting guy and who ends up being the backup. I think in terms of the running game with Wright and the depth that they have at running back, I think they feel pretty confident. It's really the passing game where we're going to see what can happen.

DS: Did the open week come at the right time for the Bulldogs?

SK: Arnett says it came at the perfect time. Just because it came exactly at the midway point of the season. I think that's where most coaches want it. I think they will be happy with that. If there is a silver lining to the slow start, the last couple of years they've been pretty good the second half of the year. Last year, they won four of the five games to close the regular season. The one loss was to Georgia. They've been a team that's performed well in the second half of seasons while Zach Arnett was the defensive coordinator. Obviously, this is different with him being the head coach. I think there is some confidence in this team that based on what recent history has shown us, maybe there is a chance to turn a corner given the timing of the bye week.

DS: Prediction?

SK: I think Arkansas wins 31-20. I just have too many questions for State at quarterback right now to feel super confident in the offense. I have questions about State on defense to feel very confident about them being able to slow down KJ Jefferson. I know the Arkansas offense has been a little shaky this year. It goes back to what we're saying, something's got to give. Is going to be the Arkansas offense or the State defense? What I've seen from the State defense right now just doesn't give me the confidence over the course of a game that they can contain KJ Jefferson. I've got Arkansas winning. The spread last I saw was six. I got them winning by 11 so covering that pretty easily. Maybe I'll be wrong and I'm sure a lot of state fans will let me hear it.

You can catch the clash between the Bulldogs and Razorbacks 11 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 21. The game will be broadcast on ESPN and fuboTV .