Pittman, Hogs Still Waiting for Law of Averages to Kick in

Razorbacks lose another close game in Sam Pittman era, showing a disturbing trend

Author:
Daniel Shi
Publish date:
Sep 24, 2023 3:39 PM EDT

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — 3-9 in four years under Sam Pittman. Arkansas has lost nine games by less than three points. Some of it can be chalked down to bad luck, just a few breaks here or there, this article would be flipped on its head. Pittman would be praised for keeping his composure under pressure, but that's the nature of close games, errors will be magnified.

Pittman's latest close loss, a 34-31 loss to LSU, showed that year 4 may be no different than the first three. Pittman's explanation as to why the Hogs didn't LSU score makes no sense.

"Did I think about letting them score?" Pittman said. "Yes, but I don't think they would have. I don't think they would have scored. We talked about it because I was out of timeouts. I decided to come all out and try to jar a fumble. Could we have let them score? Absolutely. We talked about it. Our chances would be better off at that point with no timeouts trying to jar it loose and/or block or miss a field goal."

There are two major issues with that statement. First, it assumes that LSU knows what to do. There's no guarantee Brian Kelly's players would have known to slide. Given the fact that Clemson, a perennial powerhouse, botched a fourth-quarter clock management situation against Florida State, Pittman is giving Kelly too much credit.

Second, how do you not at least try? In the same way, you can make a tackle to keep them out of the end zone, you can make every effort to let them score. Carry the guy if that's what it takes. Is the psychological shift difficult? Sure, but given all the coachspeak we hear all the time about 'doing everything to win," I don't think it's too difficult an ask.

The second half had a combined 42 points. The offense had already manufactured two straight game-tying drives with a two-point conversion mixed in. Neither defense had many answers in the final 30 minutes. Asking the defense to come up with a fumble on demand seems preposterous.

For all the reliance on analytics in the first three games, which may or may not cost them the BYU game, it seems like an odd time to ditch the analytics and go purely off feel, especially with how good the offense had looked the entire second half and during the two-minute drill last week before penalties became their undoing. In 2018, kickers across Power 5 college football were 48-for-50 from 20 yards or less, in effect a four percent miss rate. I'll leave it up to your own imagination what the potential success rate of KJ Jefferson leading a game-tying drive down the field in a two-minute drill might be.

To be a good coach is not easy, players can ditch you anytime for the transfer portal. The schedule that Arkansas plays this year is unfriendly, to say the least. There is a constant need to hit the recruiting trail, both traditionally and in the portal, but what may ultimately be the undoing of the Arkansas season, is something that will never leave the game of football. A need for creativity and composure late in games from a coaching staff that needs to show it before it's too late, and if last year's game against Texas A&M was any indication, they'll have another chance to show us what we learned next week in Arlington.

The Hogs will take on the Texas A&M Aggies in Arlington, Texas on Saturday, Sep. 30 at 11 a.m. in the annual Southwest Classic. The game can be streamed live on SEC Network and fuboTV .