First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for Conference Championship Week

Rivalry week was a tough outing for Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan as they entered the final stretch of their race to 40 correct college football spread picks. Both competitors went 1-4 with their picks, leading to Forde hanging on to his five-pick lead, still needing six wins to close out the contest.

We move on to conference championship week, and with only nine games to watch and bet on this week, each writer has fewer options for their picks than in a usual week. Even with that being the case, they have each locked in their top five plays for this weekend's action. Let's take a look at who they're backing.

Pat's Conference Championship Weekend Picks

Texas Tech -12.5 vs. BYU (via Caesars)

This was a beatdown the first time, and it could have been worse if the Red Raiders hadn’t misfired repeatedly in the Red Zone. Tech is a team on a mission playing at a very high level.

Miami-Ohio +2.5 vs. Western Michigan (via BetMGM)

The RedHawks are in their third straight MAC title game, and that big-game experience will matter against a WMU program that hasn’t been here since 2016. Chuck Martin will throw some voodoo at the Broncos.

Alabama +2.5 vs. Georgia (via BetMGM)

The history is the history. I’ll believe Georgia can beat Alabama in Atlanta when I see it.

Virginia -3.5 vs. Duke (via FanDuel)

The Cavaliers won by 17 in Durham on Nov. 15. There are some injuries to consider, but the line is strangely small.

Ohio State -4.5 via Indiana (via DraftKings)

Two legitimately good teams in what should be a legitimately intense atmosphere (don’t tell the IU fans that this game doesn’t matter, especially in Indy). But it’s so difficult to score on the Buckeyes that their defense will tighten the screws in the second half for a touchdown win.

Iain's Conference Championship Weekend Picks

Jacksonville State +2.5 vs. Kennesaw State (via BetMGM)

Jacksonville State, by most metrics, has been the better team this season, ranking 53rd in net adjusted EPA per play while Kennesaw State ranks 102nd in that metric. Jacksonville State is also a run-first team, ranking fifth in rushing play percentage. That's good news for them, considering they face a Kennesaw State team that ranks 88th in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.6 yards per rush, and 111th in opponent rush EPA.

North Texas -2.5 vs. Tulane (via BetMGM)

North Texas has been one of the best teams in the country by plenty of advanced analytics, including ranking eighth in net adjusted EPA per play. Tulane ranks just 46th in that metric. The North Texas offense has truly been elite, ranking first amongst all of college football in EPA per play and success rate. Considering the Tulane defense ranks 101st in opponent success rate, the Mean Green may just overwhelm the Green Wave.

UNLV +3.5 vs. Boise State (via FanDuel)

This game is a coin flip, so I'll take the side that's getting 3.5 points. UNLV ranks 32nd in adjusted net EPA per play, just one spot below Boise State, which comes in at 31st. This is a game between a UNLV team that has a strong offense and a bad defense against a Boise State team that's the opposite. I'll trust the offensive team to score enough to at least keep this game within a field goal.

Georgia -2.5 vs. Alabama (via DraftKings)

Alabama beat Georgia in the regular season by a slim margin, but what might be the most important thing to take away from that game is the fact that Georgia averaged 6.9 yards per carry. Alabama's run defense has been a weakness of theirs all season long, and I expect the Bulldogs to take advantage of that in the rematch.

Indiana +4.5 vs. Ohio State (via BetMGM)

This game is much closer to a coin flip than people think. The underlying metrics for these two teams are extremely similar in a lot of areas, including ranking first and third in adjusted net EPA per play, first and second in net success rate, and first and second in third down conversion rate. It's time to give Indiana the respect it deserves.

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