Arkansas Fans Have Wrong Perception of Musselman When It Comes to Winning

Razorbacks' history over past four seasons indicates Hog fans might want to hold off on NCAA Tournament plans

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Dec 12, 2023 5:40 PM EST

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – It's been the rationalization all week long.

It's as if there is an echo across social media and radio call-in shows.
"Awwww, they're always bad this time of year. Muss'll get 'em right in January and by March they'll be unstoppable like they always are. Trust in Muss!"

Unfortunately, facts tend to get in the way of a nice narrative. There is reason to have concern about a 6-4 record this early on. That's because, while Arkansas coach Eric Musselman does tend to tinker with the line-ups while he figures out who his seven players are the rest of the team will watch from the bench beginning mid-January, he doesn't lose.

At least not in November and December. That's prime win column stacking season under Musselman. Coming into this season, the Razorbacks are a combined 41-6 in November and December since the Muss Bus parked itself outside Bud Walton Arena. That means Arkansas has nearly as many losses in its last 10 games as it did the previous 47 in the first two months of the season.

It's pretty much impossible to beat Arkansas in November. Even with this season added in, the Razorbacks have won 87% of the time. Prior to this season, the Hogs were 21-1 in November.

December isn't much easier. Musselman has won 78% of his games in the midst of the Christmas holidays. The rest of the way, when fans imagine the Razorbacks blowing through everyone while trampling their path to another deep NCAA Tournament run, the reality is things get shaky.

January is especially treacherous. There's a good chance that when this group closes out that portion of the schedule, Musselman will actually have a losing record for the month at Arkansas. He currently clings to a 53% win rate at 18-16. Almost like clockwork, his teams go on long losing streaks in January.

Only one Razorback team has a winning record in January. In 2022, Arkansas went 6-2. As for the rest, it was pretty dismal. Last season, Arkansas went 4-5. Same for 2021. Had Mason Jones and company not eeked out a semi-respectable 4-4 in 2020, Musselman would find himself at .500.

Assuming the Razorbacks win the next three games, which isn't a given, a typical 4-5 finish to January sends Arkansas sliding into February at 13-9. There was genuine concern the Hogs would miss the tournament after heading into February at 15-7. Entering February having only won 59% of their games would pretty much guarantee a one-way trip to the NIT.

Winning in February under Musselman is pretty spotty also. Arkansas has won 65% of its games at 20-11. However, it should be noted the Razorbacks either burn really hot, or really cold. Of those 20 wins, 13 came in 2022 and 2021. Last year's team and Musselman's first team went a combined 7-10.

Of course, there's always March. No one can stop Arkansas in March lately, right? Actually, the Razorbacks are consistently worse in March than any month other than January. Musselman's teams typically lose a game down the final stretch of conference play, fail to get many wins, if any, in the SEC Tournament, and obviously pick up a loss in the NCAA Tournament.

If it weren't for those long runs in March Madness, things would be pretty bleak. Last season's team would be 1-2, the year before would be 2-2. Only the 2021 Elite 8 group did much in the way of damage in March, finishing 6-2, which is still 3-1 without the NCAA Tournament.

So, if this current Razorbacks team simply performs to the law of averages, the odds of another big run in March take a hard hit. That puts them at 19-13, which probably puts Arkansas in the NIT for the first time in the Musselman era.

That's something that will drive him into permanent residence in the family pool house as he physically rips hair from his head. However, the only way to avoid it is to find a way to get this team to play well above the average Eric Musselman Razorback team. And that's going to be really hard since they are already 30% below an average Arkansas team in terms of wins at this point.