2024 Draft Projections Doom, Gloom for Hogs, but Room to Improve

Only one Razorback projected to barely make it into draft, but Musselman has potential to match this year's draft numbers again despite poor NBA outlook

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Jun 26, 2023 11:59 AM EDT
Original:
Jun 26, 2023

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Arkansas Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – If all the NBA draft hype that surrounded last season's team wore on Arkansas coach Eric Musselman, then he should find next season quite relaxing.

According to the first mock draft put out by ESPN regarding next season, the Razorbacks only have one player with NBA potential and he's a threat to fall completely out of the draft. The lone Arkansas player projected to be selected is Trevon Brazile at No. 51, only eight picks from falling out of the draft.

Instead of a Razorback rich menu, the 2024 draft is heavily weighted toward non-college players. A dozen non-college players make up over 20% of the draft, including the first three picks, and eight of the 30 first round picks. For those scoring at home, that's 100% of the three most valuable picks and 27% of the contracts that are required to guaranteed.

At the top of the list is a reason for Arkansas fans to wonder "what if." That's because the No. 1 overall pick is Ron Holland, who shunned Arkansas a spot in the G League, which was identified after the draft as the biggest threat to Razorback basketball going forward. G League Ignite is projected to beat is draft leading mark from the 2023 draft with five players expected to be drafted next season, including the top two.

Had Arkansas found a way get either Holland or North Dakota State's Grant Nelson onto the roster, there's an outside chance Musselman could have repeated his NBA draft feat of three Hogs seeing their name called in mid-June once again, but Holland joined a trend of seeing the G League as greener pastures and Nelson has reportedly placed himself in a position where his only option will probably be to stay in North Dakota.

As for Brazile, it's safe to assume that this ranking has more to do with recovery from his knee injury. Even without the benefit of proving it against SEC teams, the wiry forward was clawing his way into the draft spotlight last season. His size, athleticism, versatility on offense and frightening presence on defense make him a prime candidate to be this coming season's biggest mover on draft boards if his knee holds up.

Despite all those selections being taken by non-college players and Duke, UConn and Creighton being projected as the class of college basketball with three draftees each, odds are still high that at least one other Razorback makes a big enough name for himself to crack the final list. It will be harder because the NBA is big on drafting young talent and Arkansas will be one of the oldest teams in college basketball next season, but someone is going to shine.

Either way, the draft is 361 days away. There's a lot that will happen between now and then. As Andy Hodges put it Sunday, it's way too early to be right about much of anything that's going to unfold around this time next year.