Arkansas Has Path to Upset Over Tennessee

Six reasons Razorbacks pull it off and a couple that could cause Hogs to come up short against Volunteers

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Feb 12, 2024 11:03 AM EST

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Arkansas fans cling to hope in any way possible. That's why after the Razorbacks have played well in three of the last four games, it's not hard for Hogs fans to look at a blowout win over No. 6 Tennessee by a Texas A&M team Eric Musselman's squad beat at its lowest point and feel like there's a chance Wednesday night.

More often than not, when the Razorback faithful start feeling like that, a certain level of reality sets in and a feeling of hopelessness washes away all that positivity. That may not need to be the case this time, despite the Volunteers' Top 10 ranking. With that in mind, here are the reasons Arkansas wins Wednesday night, along with a few reasons the Hogs possibly lose just to keep things balanced.

Why Arkansas Wins

#1
TENNESSEE IS NOT A GOOD ROAD TEAM

All but one of the Volunteers' six losses took place away from Thompson-Boling Arena. Tennessee shoots much worse in a different environment. Six times teams have held the Vols to 73 points or less. All but one came in a loss and all but one took place on the road or a neutral site. While the Vols are a weightly 12-1 at home, they are 5-5 anywhere else on the planet.

#2
TENNESSEE DOESN'T PLAY PARTICULARLY BIG INSIDE

While the Volunteers have a couple of 6-foot-11 players on the roster, only one, Jonas Aidoo, gets consistent playing time and he's not a match-up problem for Makhi Mitchell. He also doesn't have a big enough size advantage on Jalen Graham to tip things heavily in his favor.
However, despite the physical height, the key here is doesn't play big inside, not actually big. Over and over again, the Texas A&M guards drove down low on the Volunteers. Despite Tennessee packing the paint with four defenders, the Aggies' guards still managed to create more than enough space to make shots just about any time they wanted. There was no intimidation. It looked a lot like Keyon Menifield against Georgia for much of the night.

#3
TENNESSEE GETS A LOT OF SHOTS BLOCKED

Officially, Texas A&M blocked five shots Saturday. However, there were even more blocks that didn't go in the books. That's because of plays blown dead just prior to the block for things like fouls or other violations. Tennessee has crafty guards, but they tend to get blind to backside help defenders and trailers. Arkansas has made an art of blocking shots this year and are especially dangerous when Graham and Mitchell are on the floor together. The Razorbacks have blocked 149 shots this season, which is way more than twice what their opponents have inflicted on them.

#4
TENNESSEE OFFENSE CAN GET FLUSTERED BY GOOD DEFENSE

Rick Barnes' team tends to be feast or famine on the offensive end. The Aggies got physical with Tennessee and threw them off their game. With just over 13 minutes left in the entire game, the Volunteers only had 31 points and the final outcome had already been determined. South Carolina held the the Vols under 31 with just over 17 minutes left. Kansas held them to 25 points in the second half. Purdue held them to 26. All losses.
If the Razorbacks really lock down on defense, Tennessee struggles to find the basket more than enough on the road to open a path to victory.

#5
TENNESSEE DOESN'T ADJUST WELL TO SCREENS

A big part of how Texas A&M was able to blow the game open early on was its ability to run screens. Whether it was a single screen or multiple, the Volunteers really had no answer. Tennessee didn't seem to fight through screens well, nor switch off quickly. This created space for the Aggies' shooters to operate, which is a big reason why they were able to shoot 48% from the floor.

#6
ARKANSAS STARTING TO FIND CHEMISTRY AND MOVE THE BALL

Saturday's win over Georgia was by far the best chemistry the Razorbacks have shown all season. Finally, someone other than Makhi Mitchell and Jalen Graham showed chemistry and anticipation together. Not only did the ball move more, but the players themselves did also. This led to a lot of easy open shots. Now, part of this might have been because Arkansas hasn't done that all season, so it may have caught the Bulldogs off guard, but it was there. Tennessee tends to get tunnel vision on defense in the paint, opening the way for backdoor cuts, especially along the baseline. If Arkansas can replicate and slightly improve on Saturday's performance, there's room to do a lot of damage.

Why Arkansas Loses

#1
THREE-POINT SHOOTING BIG PART OF THE FORMULA

A big part of why Texas A&M was able to blow the game open early was because of how short Tennessee kept closing out on the Aggies' outside shooters. The Vols gave up seven threes in roughly the first 11 minutes of the game. South Carolina hit 10 threes in a win and Mississippi State's Josh Hubbard shot 5-of-10 from beyond the arc when the Bulldogs upset Tennessee. Teams have beaten Tennessee while not blowing up from deep, but those were Purdue, North Carolina, and Kansas. That's a different breed of team. Run of the mill types need to get hot from three and that's just not Arkansas' game.

#2
DALTON KNECHT CAN BURY THE RAZORBACKS

Whomever is showing the most promise at guarding the three for Arkansas will need to be assigned to deodorant duty on Knecht. That person has to be able to stay on him so tight and for so long that he can not only tell Musselman what brand of deodorant he wears, but what time he most likely put it on.
Knecht is one of the most dangerous shooters in all of college basketball. If he is allowed to get hot, he can end the game in a matter of minutes. He averages over 20 points per game and has topped 30 five times, including a season high 39 against Florida. In his last nine SEC games, Knecht has shot at least 40% from three six times. In three of those he shot over 50%. Against Florida, Georgia and Texas A&M, he was a combined 18-of-25 from beyond the arc. For those scoring along at home, that's an average of 6-of-8 per game.